Sunday, August 28, 2016

Get Ready For More Rain - Heavy At Times!


Looking Northwest From The Carlsbad Airport At A Right Moving Supercell Thunderstorm That Produced A Couple Of Funnel Clouds West Of Roswell, New Mexico On 8-24-2016. Check Chaves County Skywarn Coordinator Jim Tuckers Facebook Page For Photos Of The Mothership And Funnel Clouds From This Supercell Thunderstorm. 




Radar estimated that as much as 4" to 6" of rain may have fallen northeast of Roswell from a slow moving line of thunderstorms overnight. Unfortunately I can't find any rainfall reports in that area.

Wet Week Ahead - Heavy Rainfall Likely!


A rather robust closed upper level low was located over northeastern Arizona this morning. This low is forecast to wobble around the Four Corners area for the next several days. Thus good lift, instability, and abundant low and mid level moisture will cover the area this upcoming week. 

The general theme will be thunderstorms and heavy rain. Training thunderstorms (one right after another moving over the same location) may lead to local flash flooding. This will be especially true given the widespread 4+" rainfall totals that have already fallen from the Caprock west to the mountains. 

Storm total rainfall totals from today into next Thursday will be in the 1" to 6" at least based on the computer model forecasts. Not everybody will get 6" of rain but isolated locations will see some hefty totals by the end of next week. Widespread storm totals of 1" to 3" appear fairly likely. A Flash Flood Watch may be issued for the local area later today. 


NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.

NAM-WRF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 30, 2016.



GEM (Canadian) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ Midnight MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ Midnight MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ Midnight MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 30, 2016.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!