Friday, February 25, 2011

Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook!

Update Sunday (6:00 PM MST) Feb 27, 2011-

A Dust Storm Warning Is In Effect For SE NM Until 8 PM MST.

Peak Wind Gusts Reported As Of 6:00 PM MST-

San Augustin Pass-East Of Las Cruces 89 mph
Guadalupe Pass 84 mph
Bowl Raws 71 mph
Jdon-NE Of Alto 64 mph
Clovis-CW3200 64 mph
Lovington 64 mph
Roswell Airport 63 mph
Cannon AFB-Clovis 61 mph
Clovis Municipal Airport 61 mph
High Roll-CW5738 59 mph
2 SW Tatum 59 mph
Pinery Raws-Pine Springs 58 mph
Dunken Raws 57 mph
Cosmic Raws-Sunspot 56 mph
Smokey Bear Raws-Near Ruidoso 56 mph
Sacramento Peak 55 mph
Bat Draw Raws-Carlsbad Caverns 55 mph
Artesia Airport 55 mph
8-Mile Draw Raws NE Of Roswell 54 mph
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 53 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 53 mph
Woody Farms-11 N Hobbs 53 mph
South Hobbs-DW3455 53 mph
Carlsbad Airport 53 mph
Caprock Raws 52 mph
East Hobbs 53 mph
Holloman AFB-Alamogordo 51 mph
Hobbs Airport 51 mph

Wind Gusts Are Courtesy Of-

NACR
MesoWest Weather
Davis WeatherLink Network
Weather Underground WunderMap
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EXTREMELY CRITICALLY DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
E-SE NM & W TX ON SUNDAY!

Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

Special Weather Briefing On Sunday's High Wind Event!

SW Winds 30-45G60 MPH!

W Winds 55-70G110 MPH Sunday!
Widespread Blowing Dust Sunday!

SW-W Winds 35-45G65 MPH!
Widespread Blowing Dust!

High Wind Warning Chaves-Lincoln Co's Sunday!
SW-W Winds 35-50G65 MPH!

(Includes El Paso-Las Cruces-Alamogordo-Cloudcroft-Dell City)
SW-W Winds 35-45G70 MPH Sunday!
W Winds 55G70 MPH East Slopes & Near Mtn's!
Widespread Blowing Dust!

(Southern Sacramento Mtn's)
5" New Snow Above 6,000' MSL
Blowing Snow Limiting Visibilities

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity That
Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!

Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity That
Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!

Large Wind Driven Fires Possible!

A cold and powerful mid-upper level storm was located just of the coast of Oregon early this morning. This late winter storm will drop southeastward today into tonight, and will be located over southwestern Nevada early Saturday morning. To give you an idea of the strength of this storm, consider that the San Francisco Bay area may see its first snowfall since 1976. Snow is also forecast to fall in the Tucson, AZ area tomorrow night into Sunday morning.

Today will be warm and breezy with our afternoon highs approaching 80. SW winds will gust up into the 35-40 mph range. Saturday will be even warmer with highs in the low 80's, along with SW winds gusting up into the 30-40 mph range.

Sunday looks like a brutal day across the area. Very strong winds aloft associated with this powerful late winter storm will mix down to the surface. These winds combined with a very tight surface gradient, and approaching Pacific Cold Front, will all help to produce a Potentially Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event across the area.

The Jet Stream is forecast to be located directly overhead on Sunday. Winds at the 250 MB/34,000' MSL are forecast to be around 170 kts/195 mph. Winds at the 500 MB/18,000' MSL are forecast to be around 120 kts/140 mph. Winds at the mountain top level, or 700 MB/10,000' MSL are forecast to be around 70 kts/80 mph. Winds at the 850 MB/5,000' MSL are forecast to be around 50-60 kts/58-70 mph.

As these powerful winds aloft mix down to the surface Sunday morning, southwest-west winds will increase across all of the area. Current National Weather Service forecasts are calling for sustained winds of around 35-55G65 mph! Westerly winds through the Guadalupe Mountains are forecast to be in the 55-70G110 mph range.

Typically a few spots usually exceed the highest forecast wind speeds during these type of extreme high wind events. I think that there is a real possibility that this will be the case across SE NM on Sunday. I believe that we may see some gusts here in the Pecos Valley approaching 80 mph. This will be especially true in the normally more wind prone areas near the foothills and mountains!

These extreme wind gusts will be capable of producing the following types of damage across the area on Sunday. Roof damage, power lines and other types of suspended cables blown down, barns, sheds, and outbuildings damaged or blown down, trees and tree limbs blown down, road signs damaged or blown down, irrigation sprinkler systems damaged or blown away, some west facing windows may be blown out. Some vehicles may be in danger of being blown off local highways, especially on north-south oriented roadways.

A widespread blowing dust event is currently anticipated from Southern New Mexico eastward to West Texas. Blinding dust storms may suddenly drop the visibility down to zero with little to no advanced warning! This will be especially true near open, exposed, or freshly plowed farmland, fields, lots, and roadway construction sites. Some road closures may be possible due to the blowing dust and high winds at the lower elevations, and the snow and blowing dust/blowing snow across the Sacramento Mountains!

The Fire Weather Danger will continue to be especially high across the area today and tomorrow. It simply will be off the scale on Sunday. Any accidental fire that may develop on Sunday will have the potential to rapidly spread and grow in the extremely high winds! Large Wind Driven Fires could impact parts of the area on Sunday!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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