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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Summer Monsoon Kicks In Next Week.

Uploaded by on Jul 5, 2011.
Dust Storm (Haboob) Over Phoenix, AZ July 5, 2011.

Finally A Break From The Drought?

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast Map.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Sun July 10, 2011.

There appears to be good news on the horizon for all of us drought stricken southeastern New Mexicans! This mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB forecast run (see the map above), is forecasting the center of the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure to shift to the east this weekend. By Sunday it should be located over or near southern Missouri.

This is important because it means that the flow around the bottom of this ridge will become more southerly across our area, starting this weekend and continuing into next week. Which of course means that our annual summer monsoonal influx of sub tropical moisture, will work its way northward out of Mexico, and into southeastern New Mexico next week.

Will this be enough moisture to break the drought? Probably not, but at least it is a start. Thunderstorms are forecast to gradually become more numerous, and widespread over western and southern New Mexico this weekend, and then gradually shift eastward into southeastern New Mexico next week.

We should see an increase in thunderstorm activity over the Sacramento and Capitan mountains by this coming weekend. Both the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas have a 40% chance of seeing measurable rainfall on Sunday, according to this mornings NWS forecast. Daytime high temperatures should cool down into the low-mid 70's in the Cloudcroft area this weekend, and the low-mid 80's in the Ruidoso area.

Meanwhile, here in the southeastern plains we will remain hot and dry today into the weekend. Our afternoon high temps will range from near 100 today, 99 - 103 tomorrow, 101 - 103 on Friday, and 100 - 102 Saturday and Sunday.

We should see a gradual cool down next week as humidity levels come up, and more cloud cover, and thunderstorm activity blankets the local area. Keep praying folks...this looks like our best shot at rain yet.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!