Sunday, July 31, 2011

Lookout Fire Complex Queen, NM

Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them.
Looking South Towards The Dark Canyon Repeater 7-24-2011.
T-Storm West Of The Queen, NM VFD 7-25-2011.
Raindrops & Puddles In Queen, NM 7-25-2011.
Pouring Rain In Queen, NM 7-26-2011.
Its Raining...Play Time. 7-25-2011.
Eddy County EM Joel Arnwine...Its Wet Out There. 7-25-2011.
Its Raining...Who Wants To Play With Me? 7-25-2011.
Watching Radar...Lookout Fire Complex Queen, NM 7-26-2011.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Saturday, July 30, 2011

It Rained In The Pecos Valley!

Rain In The Sacramento Mountains.

Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them.
Life giving rains return to the Sacramento Mountains this
month. Looking west towards the Dunken area.
Low clouds & fog shroud the mountain tops during an
afternoon t-storm in the Sacramento-Weed areas.
Cloudcroft's namesake.
You would think this was a fall morning shot but it wasn't. It 
was taken near Sacramento, NM on the afternoon of 7-22-11.
Raindrops & puddles...A welcome site.
Only a trickle now...but this arroyo can become a raging torrent
 during flash flood events. 
Mountain runoff near Weed, NM 7-22-11.

Selected Rainfall Totals Across SE NM.
(Ending At 7 AM MDT Today).

Chaves County-

8-Mile Draw Raws .28"
7.6 NNW Roswell .20"
Roswell Climate .05"
Roswell Arpt ASOS .03"

Eddy County-

Queen Raws .77"
0.9 NE Lakewood .52"
2.0 N Downtown Carlsbad .48"
Downtown Carlsbad - OEM Bldg .45"
33.3 WSW Carlsbad - Queen .31"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .30"
2.6 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .28"
South Artesia .21"
3.1 SSE Carlsbad .19"
4.8 SSE Artesia - Atoka .18"
Carlsbad Arpt ASOS .17"
Artesia Arpt AWOS .09"
6 SSE Artesia - Atoka/Alfaldale .06"

Otero County-

Mayhill Raws .32"
16 ESE Cloudcroft - Mayhill .30"
Carlsbad Climate .23"
Mayhill CW9878 .21"
Dark Ridge Observatory - Weed .13"
4.9 NE Cloudcroft .09"
1.8 SW Cloudcroft .08"
Pierce Canyon .08"
Dry Canyon .07"
Cloudcroft Fire Stn .06"
Cosmic Raws - Apache Summit .01"

Rainfall Data Is Courtesy Of-


Remnants Of Tropical Storm Don-

Tropical Storm Don moved inland near Baffin Bay, between Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas yesterday evening. Don died rapidly once inland...this was something that I didn't expect, nor did a lot of other people. 

An upper level low (Tutt Low) is located over SE NM this morning, and was partly responsible for kicking off yesterday afternoon's and evening's crop of t-storm across the area. We can expect to see similar conditions again today into Sunday. Some of Don's remnant moisture (not much though) will add to the mix, and help produce widely scattered to scattered t-storms across the area.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Friday, July 29, 2011

Will We Get Rain From TS Don?

Tropical Storm Don - T-Storms - Unrelenting Heat.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Early this morning a Tropical Upper Level Low was located
over SE Chihuahua, Mexico, and was lifting slowly off to
the NNW. This feature will enhance the chances for 
t-storms across the area today, along with residual 
outflow boundaries from yesterday's crop of t-storms.




Valid 6 AM Today - 6 AM Monday.

Tropical Storm Don.

At 3 AM MDT, Tropical Storm Don was located 290miles southeast of Corpus Christi,Texas, or about 245 miles east of Brownsville, Texas. He continues moving off to the WNW at 14 mph. His central pressure remains at 1000 MB's/29.53". Don could undergo some additional
strengthening today, before making landfall between Corpus Christi, and Brownsville,Texas late tonight or early Saturday morning.

Don has struggled to strengthen the past 24 hours because wind shear, and dry air over the Gulf of Mexico, has been wrecking havoc with his structure. This has prevented him from becoming a Hurricane, in spite of the warm waters that he is over. For awhile yesterday, he was moving in a southwesterly direction, but has resumed a course back to the west-northwest. This should continue today.

Don's Potential Impacts Upon W TX & SE NM?

Most of the models are now forecasting Don to take a track a little further to the south than was originally indicated.The only fly in the ointment is the European model (ECMWF), which wants to track Don more to the northwest than the other models. As of the 3 AM MDT Advisory, the National Hurricane Center was discounting this models forecast track, and sticking with the general consensus of the other models.

If, (here is that big word again) the current forecasts, and trends of the future track of Tropical Storm Don pan out as the models are forecasting, then W TX and SE NM will only get a glancing blow from the remnants of Don late this weekend. 

I must admit that I have some reservations about the forecast track of Don this morning. I don't think that we can completely rule out the possibility that the remnants of Don may impact our area more than what the models indicate.Tropical Storms and Hurricanes are notorious for not playing by the rules sometimes, and are one of the hardest meteorological phenomena to forecast. 

Again, I think its a little early to know exactly for sure just how much Don will, or will not impact our area. We can expect to see some of his remnant moisture get en-trained into the area late this weekend, and possibly continue into next week. To what extent is still a little uncertain at this time.

 Should his remnant moisture stay off to our south and west as the latest model runs, and forecasts indicate, then we will see less rainfall over the area, and less of a threat for flash flooding. If the remnants of Don move further northwestward than currently is being forecast, and the area should take more of a direct hit from his remnant moisture, then the threat for heavy rainfall, and flash flooding would increase late this weekend into the first of next week.

Today's T-Storms.

Looking at the Satellite Water Vapor loop this morning, an upper level tropical low can be seen over Chihuahua, Mexico. This feature is forecast to continue moving off to the NNW today, and will be located over the mountains of SE NM by this evening.

 Outflow boundaries from yesterday's afternoon and evenings crop of t-storms are draped over the area this morning. These features will combine with the strong afternoon heating, and mountainous terrain, to produce scattered t-storms across the area. Locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding, may occur with some of the heavier t-storms this afternoon and evening, especially over and near the burn scar areas.

Unrelenting Heat.

With the slight increase in moisture and more t-storms roaming around the area today, we should see our afternoon high temps reach the upper 90's to near 100 today into the weekend. If the models are correct, then very hot weather may return to the area the first of next week into at least the middle of the week. High temps could flirt with the 110-degree mark over parts of SE NM and W TX by the middle of next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Summer Heat & Tropical Storm Don.

Tropical Storm Don.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Taken At 6:15 AM MDT This Morning.


Valid 6 AM MDT Today - 6 AM MDT Tue Aug 2, 2011.
Please note that this precipitation forecast (map above)
will change daily as new model data becomes available.

Tropical Storm Don was located 545 miles ESE of Corpus
Christi, Texas as of 6 AM MDT this morning. He is moving
off to the WNW at 10 mph. He has sustained winds of 40
mph with higher gusts. His central pressure is down to
 1000 MB/29.53".  

The models are having fits with Don. His forecast movement
off to the WNW or NW seems ok for now. Where they are 
struggling is whether or not he will strengthen rapidly and
become a Hurricane, or remain a Tropical Storm. Please
see the latest NHC updates for the latest on Don.

At this time, it appears that there is a reasonable chance
that W TX and SE NM will at least some of the remnant 
moisture from Don, possibly as early as this weekend.
Just how much and for how long remains questionable
at this time.

 However, there is the risk that the remnants of Don could
bring much needed rainfall to the area this weekend into
next week. There is also the possibility that these rains
could elevate the flash flood threat across the area.

 I am very concerned about this possibility given the 
current state of the drought griping the area, and the
number of areas that have been burned off from all 
of the wildfires, this spring and summer. These areas
have the potential to flood much more rapidly than is
normally the case, and should be monitored often if
this comes to pass.

HOT!

High temps will continue to range from 100 -105 today
into the weekend across most of SE NM. A few t-storms
will dot the plains this afternoon and evening. More
numerous t-storms will fire up over and near the mtn's.
Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be 
possible in these areas, especially over and near
the burn scar areas.

High Temps Wednesday-

8-Mile Draw Raws 106
Paduca Raws - Near WIPP 106
Carlsbad Airport 105
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 105
Caprock Raws 103
Roswell Airport 103
Artesia Airport 100
Hobbs Airport 100

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

HOT!

Update 3:15 PM MDT.

Tropical Storm Don Forms.
Invest 90 Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Don.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.
The NHC Gives Invest 90 An 80% Chance Of Becoming A
Tropical Cyclone Within 48 Hours. An Air Force Reserve
Hunter Aircraft Will Investigate This System Today.



Its important to note that the model forecast tracks above
will change with each new run. There is a high degree of
uncertainty concerning the future tracks and strength
of this potential tropical storm. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for the latest official forecasts
and potential tracks concerning this system.


I am keeping a close watch on a potential tropical storm
that is developing near Cuba. This system will move into
the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and has
the potential to become a tropical storm. If this happens
this storm will be named Don.

It is way too early to know for sure where this storm will
track. There is the possibility that it could move northwest
and approaoch the Texas Coastal Bend by Saturday.
Computer model forecasts indicate that it may move into
W TX or SE NM by the end of the weekend.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unrelenting Heat - When Will It End?

Not anytime soon. Today will mark the 47th day
that the Carlsbad Airport has reached, or exceeded the
century mark. Our high temperatures across the Pecos
Valley and the rest of SE NM will range from 100 - 104
today into the weekend, and more than likely into the
first part of next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

New Kid On The Block?

Invest #90.

Click On The Images To Enlarge Them.



There has been very little to talk about locally concerning our 
weather. Hot weather will continue to dominate our headlines
this week with afternoon high temps in the 100 - 105 range.
These temps are getting really old...I'm ready for fall.

Hit and miss t-storms will continue to dot the Guadalupe,
Sacramento, and Captian Mountains each afternoon into
the upcoming weekend. Locally heavy downpours will be
possible with any of these storms. 

A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for Lincoln County, 
starting at noon today and continuing into this evening. 
Locally heavy downpours from this afternoons crop of
t-storms may cause localized flash flooding over and
near the burn scar areas near Ruidoso, NM.

I will be keeping an eye on the latest tropical wave 
to flare up just south of Cuba.This is Invest #90.
It has the potential to strengthen into a tropical
storm, as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico later 
this week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Two Week Outlook.



US Drought Monitor. 


Percent Of Long -Term Precipitation, 6 - Months.
January - June, 2011.



US Drought Outlook.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lookout Complex

 LOOKOUT COMPLEX
UPDATE
Lookout Complex – Fire Information – (575) 652-5001
Sunday, July 24, 2011-6:00 a.m.                    
Information Officers: Loretta Benavidez,  Joel Arnwine, Linda Wallace
Detected:  July 20, 2011                                         Cause:  Lightning                                  
Containment: 35 percent                                        Location: Southwest of Carlsbad
Fuel Type: Pinion juniper, brush and grass     Terrain:  Steep and Rugged
The Pecos Zone TypeIII Team, led by Incident Commander Jay Northcott, continues to oversee suppression efforts on the three fires that make up the Lookout Complex. They are mostly within the Guadalupe Ranger District, southwest of Carlsbad, NM.  The northern most fire, the Acrey Fire has crossed onto BLM and State lands.  Today, firefighters will continue both direct and indirect suppression tactics The fires are burning in steep rugged terrain in grass, pinion juniper and Ponderosa Pine.
Smoke has been visible from Highway 137 and US 62/180 south and west of Carlsbad. A chance that afternoon winds will pick up can cause an increase in fire activity.  Aerial resources will assist ground resources in protecting two ranch houses that are threatened by the fire. Natural gas and oil infrastructure northeast of the Acrey fire could be threatened. Firefighters will focus suppression efforts on this portion of the fire.
The Segrest fire which started yeaterday, was 8-10 miles west of the Acrey fire. This fire was is currently 21 acres in size. With the aid of five aerial drops, firefighters plan to continue with mop-up operations on the fire today.
Current Size:  18,544 (combined acreage)
Summary: The fires are actively burning in steep, rocky, inaccessible terrain on lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management, US Forest Service, and State lands southwest of Carlsbad, NM.
Aerial resources will be utilized to help check the fires’ spread.
Fire Behavior: Due to the drying out of fuels increased fire ‘behavior can be expected today.
Weather: Today partly cloudy, 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms development across the areas. Maximum temperatures will be 89 degrees. Relative humidity at 30%. Winds out of the South to Southwest 10-15 mph.
Resources include personnel and equipment from: U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Indian Affairs, New Mexico State Forestry, and Eddy County volunteer fire departments. Approximately 315 personnel are assigned to the complex.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Friday, July 22, 2011

Roswell Got Wet Last Night.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

This mornings water vapor satellite image above, shows the
summer monsoonal flow continuing to stream northeastward
out of Mexico and across New Mexico.


Hurricane Dora reached Category 4 status yesterday with
sustained winds of 155 mph along with higher gusts. This
morning she is a Category 1 with sustained winds of 85
mph. Dora is forecast to continue to rapidly weaken as
she moves off to the NW at 9 mph over colder waters.


Valid From 6 AM Today - 6 AM Wed.

Today Will Be A Repeat Of Yesterdays Weather.

Not much has changed in the overall setup from yesterday.
Scattered t-storms are forecast to once again develop later
this afternoon, and continue well into the evening hours.
These storms will be of the hit and miss variety so not
everyone will see rainfall. This pattern will continue
into the weekend. The mountains will have the
best chance for rain.

A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect for Lincoln
County at noon today, and will be valid until late
this evening. Scattered t-storms will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall across the
Sacramento Mtn's today, which may lead to
localized flash flooding, especially over and
near the burn scar areas.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Local Rainfall Totals-

Chaves County-

8-Mile Draw Raws .96"
Roswell Climate .73"
0.3 SSW Downtown Roswell .53"
Roswell Arpt ASOS .20"
7.6 NNW Roswell .09"

Lincoln County-

Sierra Blanca Snotel .50"
Ruidoso Climate .13"
Ruidoso PWS 5659 .04"

Otero County-

0.6 S Pinon .70"
4.9 NNE Cloudcroft .44"
0.4 ESE Cloudcroft .42"
Mayhill Raws .39"
Cloudcroft PWS 7382 .29"
16 ESE Cloudcroft - Mayhill .26"
Pierce Canyon - S of Cloudcroft .24"
Sillver Springs - NE of Cloudcroft .22"
4.0 E Cloudcroft .21"
Cloudcroft Climate .19"
Mayhill PWS 9878 .19"
Dry Canyon - E of Cloudcroft .16"
1.8 SW Cloudcroft .15"
2.3 S Cloudcroft .15"
Mescal Raws .09"
Sacramento Pk .05"
Cosmic Raws .04"

Rainfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-


------------------------------------------------------------

Acrey-Lookout Fire Complex 7-22-2011 8:00 AM

Today fire crews will use both direct and indirect suppression tactics working to contain the fires. There will be some burnout operations conducted on the fires today. Lookout Fire Crews will use both direct and indirect fire suppression tactics to fight the Lookout fire today. They are planning to conduct burnout operations off of Forest Road 69, 69A, 201 and 307. Smoke from these burnout operations will be visible from Queen, White’s City and possibly Carlsbad. Fire crews will also conduct small burnouts operations to secure fire containment lines and begin cold trailing (ensure the fires edge is cold and out) on the Acrey Fire.
Current Size: 6,430 acres
Summary: The fire is actively burning in steep, rocky, inaccessible terrain on lands managed by the US Forest Service southwest of Carlsbad, NM.
1 Air Attack, 1 Lead Plane and heavy Air Tankers will be available to work the fire today. A Type 3 helicopter is also available to assist the fire resources.
Fire Behavior: Moderate fire behavior is expected today
Weather: Today…Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.Tonight…Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60’s. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Structures Threatened: 2 Residential and 4 other outbuildings are currently threatened by the fire
Resources: Resources from the Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Indian Affairs, New Mexico State Forestry, and Eddy County volunteer departments responded. Approximately 295 personnel are assigned to the fire.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!