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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Summer Monsoon Kicks In Next Week.


Uploaded by on Jul 5, 2011.
Dust Storm (Haboob) Over Phoenix, AZ July 5, 2011.

Finally A Break From The Drought?

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast Map.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Sun July 10, 2011.

There appears to be good news on the horizon for all of us drought stricken southeastern New Mexicans! This mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB forecast run (see the map above), is forecasting the center of the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure to shift to the east this weekend. By Sunday it should be located over or near southern Missouri.

This is important because it means that the flow around the bottom of this ridge will become more southerly across our area, starting this weekend and continuing into next week. Which of course means that our annual summer monsoonal influx of sub tropical moisture, will work its way northward out of Mexico, and into southeastern New Mexico next week.

Will this be enough moisture to break the drought? Probably not, but at least it is a start. Thunderstorms are forecast to gradually become more numerous, and widespread over western and southern New Mexico this weekend, and then gradually shift eastward into southeastern New Mexico next week.

We should see an increase in thunderstorm activity over the Sacramento and Capitan mountains by this coming weekend. Both the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas have a 40% chance of seeing measurable rainfall on Sunday, according to this mornings NWS forecast. Daytime high temperatures should cool down into the low-mid 70's in the Cloudcroft area this weekend, and the low-mid 80's in the Ruidoso area.

Meanwhile, here in the southeastern plains we will remain hot and dry today into the weekend. Our afternoon high temps will range from near 100 today, 99 - 103 tomorrow, 101 - 103 on Friday, and 100 - 102 Saturday and Sunday.

We should see a gradual cool down next week as humidity levels come up, and more cloud cover, and thunderstorm activity blankets the local area. Keep praying folks...this looks like our best shot at rain yet.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Monday, July 4, 2011

Happy 4th of July!

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.
Valid At 00Z/6 PM MDT Today.

The mid-upper level ridge of high pressure is centered just
a little to the east of Grand Junction Colorado this morning.
It is forecast to wobble a little to the east today, and will be
centered over north-central Colorado this afternoon.


A surge of monsoonal moisture continues to work it way
northward out of Mexico and into Arizona this morning. A
stronger surge of this moisture may work into New Mexico
by this weekend if the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure
can shift far enough to the east.

Valid From 6 AM Today - 6 AM Wed, Jul 6, 2011.

Slight Chance For T-Storms Today Into This Evening.


A weak mid-level shortwave trough of low pressure is
embedded within the ridge, and stretches southwestward
from the Texas Panhandle to SE NM this morning.

This feature will combine with outflow boundaries left over
from last nights t-storm activity over eastern New Mexico,
to help kick off a few isolated to widely scattered t-storms
across SE NM today into this evening.

Our chances of seeing measurable rainfall across SE NM
are 10% - 20% today into tomorrow evening. Traditionally
if we do not see rain in SE NM by the 4th of July, then we
usually end up with a dry year. This is according to what
the old time ranchers and farmers claim anyway.

Although a widespread soaking rain is not in the cards for
the area today and tomorrow, a few isolated to widely scattered
t-storms will pop up across SE NM. The mountains will have the best
chances of seeing measurable rainfall.

Any t-storm that manages to form may produce wind gusts up to
50 mph, and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes. Rainfall
totals should be less than a quarter of an inch with these storms.
However, isolated heavier totals will be possible with the stronger
storms.

Our afternoon high temperatures across SE NM will range from
the upper 90's to near 100 today and tomorrow. Highs temps will
creep up a few degrees Wednesday into the end of the week
and will range from 100 -105.

A stronger surge of monsoonal moisture is still being forecast
by some of the models for the state by this upcoming weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Monsoon Fires Up Over Arizona.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Valid Today - Thu July 7, 2011.

A sprawling mid-upper level ridge of high pressure is centered over the 4-Corners Region this morning. The center of the ridge is forecast to slide off to the east, and will be located over north Texas by the middle of the week.

Finally, our annual summer monsoon is firing up. Currently Arizona is the lucky receipt of this moisture working northward out of Mexico. Although a weak surge of monsoonal moisture has been oozing into parts of western and northern New Mexico the past couple of days. Forecast models are indicating that a deeper surge of moisture may work its way into southern and western New Mexico by next weekend.

Meanwhile, SE NM remains hot and dry with little to no chance of meaningful rainfall into the end of next week. A few isolated t-storms are forecast over the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains today and tomorrow.

Our high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 90's today into Tuesday. By Wednesday we can expect to see these highs climb back up to around 100. Our highs will climb back up into the 100 - 105 range from Thursday into next weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Friday, July 1, 2011

T-Storms Fire Over The Mtns.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.


T-Storm cluster firing up over the Sacramento Mtn's,
as well as the southern Guadalupe Mtn's this afternoon.
Smoke plume from the Las Conchas Fire near Los Alamos,
New Mexico is visible also.


Weak monsoonal moisture sure can be seen slicing across the
state from the southwest to the northeast this afternoon. This 
is indicated by the grey shaded streak. The purple dot over
the Sacramento Mtn's is a cluster of t-storms firing up.

Valid 6 PM MDT Thu - 6 PM MDT Tue.

Scattered thunderstorms have managed to fire up along the east slopes of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains of New Mexico this afternoon.

 As of 3 PM MDT, the Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS (KSRR) located northeast of Ruidoso, had managed to pick up 1.42" of rainfall this afternoon. 

A t-storm earlier this afternoon dumped heavy rainfall on the Sacramento and Weed areas of the southern Sacramento mountains. KRQE News 13 out of Albuquerque, is reporting that the evacuation orders that were in effect for these two communities have been lifted due to the rainfall.

A few scattered t-storms can be expected each afternoon across the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains today into the 4th of July. The chances for rain are not great, but at least it is a start.

 Most of the rest of the local area is forecast to remain dry this weekend into the 4th of July. Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid to upper 90's.

The mid-upper level ridge of high pressure may slide back overhead by the middle of next week, therefore our high temperatures may once again climb back up to, or over 100-degrees.

I only managed to record .21" of rainfall here at my home in Carlsbad, NM for the month of June. This brings my yearly (Jan-Jun) rainfall total to .44".
 My total rainfall from Oct, 2010 through Jun, 2011 now stands at .57".

(1900 - 2010)

June 1.50"
Jan - Jun 4.68"
Oct - Jun 7.11"
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Visit this link (NM Fire Info) for the latest on the fires burning in NM.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!