Friday, October 7, 2011

Sharp Temp Difference Across NM.


Right Click On The Map To Enlarge It.

Temp map of New Mexico at 5 PM MDT this afternoon. 
40's across the NW one-half of the state, 90's in the
extreme SE corner. My high in Carlsbad today 92.
Good indicator of the strength of the inbound cold
front approaching from the west tonight.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Heavy Rainfall Possible This Weekend.

Right Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Update 2:30 PM MDT Fri Oct 7, 2011-

New Mexico Visible Satellite Image
(At 2:02 PM MDT.)

Late This Afternoon Into This Evening.

Overnight.

This Weekend.

5-Day Rainfall Outlook.
(Fri - Wed)

The Rest Of The Afternoon-



The best chances for severe t-storms will be along and east of a Tatum-Kermit-Marathon-Big Bend National Park line late this afternoon and evening.

A few scattered t-storms will still be possible across SE NM late this afternoon.  Some of these could still become severe and produce large hail, damaging t-storm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. 

The dryline has mixed eastward to just east of the state line. Dew point temperatures have fallen into the 20's & 30's across the Pecos Valley with southwesterly winds at around 20 mph. 

This has pretty much killed our chances of rain here in the Pecos Valley for this afternoon. However, we should see an increase in low-level moisture tonight into the weekend, which will help to increase our chances for some badly needed rainfall.

Tonight Into Saturday Morning-

T-Storms are forecast to increase in coverage later tonight as the potent mid-upper level storm approaches from the west. Some of these t-storms could possibly become severe overnight as the atmosphere continues to destabilize, and better lift and dynamics come into play over the area. Again, the best chances for severe t-storms will be east of the Pecos Valley tonight.

This Weekend-

A Pacific cold front will move into SE NM later tonight and then stall over the area tomorrow. Scattered to numerous showers and t-storms are forecast to break out tomorrow into Sunday. The further east you go the better the chances of seeing heavy rainfall. Flash Flooding may become an issued in some parts of SE NM and W TX this weekend. Very heavy rains could easily fall in some areas. 

Please Visit These National Weather Service Links
 For More Details Concerning Today's Severe Weather Potential.



The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

20% Chc For Spotter Activation.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Today.

This Weekend.



Forecast Position Of The Dryline & Cold Front At 6 PM.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 09Z/3 AM MDT.

RUC 500 MB Forecast At 21Z/3 PM.

Today-

A large mid-upper level storm located over the Central Rockies is in the process of splitting in two early this morning. The southern piece of this storm will close off near the Four Corners Region tonight. Meanwhile, the dryline has backed westward into SE NM. It will slowly mix eastward later this afternoon. A Pacific cold front currently draped over Central New Mexico will slowly move eastward and into SE NM tonight.

High temps today will range from 85-90 across SE NM. The winds will not be as strong this afternoon as they were yesterday. South to southwesterly winds gusted up into the 35-45 mph range yesterday afternoon in the Pecos Valley. Ruidoso had gusts in the 50-55 mph range.

A few scattered t-storms are forecast to break out along and east of the dryline by this afternoon and evening. Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

The Setup Parameters-

Surface based cape values will range from 1,000 - 2,000 j/kg east of the dryline. Mid level lapse rates do not look to be too steep until later this evening, when colder air aloft from the west, begins to filter into the area. Bulk wind shear values will range from 40 - 50 kts. One of the main limiting factors this afternoon for the initiation of severe t-storms, will be the lack of significant lift. The best atmospheric lift will not arrive until tonight when the mid-upper level storm gets a little closer. So its possible that the bulk of today's potential severe weather will not occur until tonight. There is also the possibility that tonight's severe t-storms may develop into a linear mode producing a squall line.

Some of these t-storms that form along, and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, will have the potential to become severe across parts of SE NM and W TX. A few supercell t-storms will be possible. We have a 20% chance of seeing severe t-storms this afternoon and evening here in the Pecos Valley. The Hobbs area has a much better chance of seeing t-storms. They will have have a 30% chance this afternoon, and a 60% chance tonight.


As of 7 AM MDT this morning, there is a 20% chance that I will be requesting Skywarn Spotter Activation across parts of the Midland, TX National Weather Service County Warning Area this afternoon. 

All Skywarn Spotters in the local area are requested to be on standby today, and be prepared for the possibility of activation later today. This will be especially true from Lea County eastward into W TX.

This Weekend-

A Pacific cold front will slowly work its way eastward and into the local area tonight, and then stall out across W TX tomorrow and Sunday. Cooler weather will filter into the area this weekend behind the front. Our high temps will mostly be in the 70's with our overnight lows dipping down into the 40's. Fall has arrived.

Please Visit These National Weather Service Links
 For More Details Concerning Today's Severe Weather Potential.


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Windy Today - Severe T-Storms Fri.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Today.

Friday.

Friday - Saturday.



5-Day Precipitation Forecast.
(Wed - Sun).

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 3 AM MDT This Morning.

I said the other day that our weather outlook for the end of this week was complicated, it still is. A large, cold and powerful mid-upper level storm was parked over Nevada early this morning. This massive storm is forecast to split into two centers. The first upper level low is forecast to move eastward and out onto the Plains states by tomorrow. The second upper level low is forecast by the models, to slowly crawl eastward to the Four-Corners Region by tomorrow and Saturday.

At the surface, a strong fall Pacific cold front will move into northwestern New Mexico later today. This front will then move slowly eastward and into SE NM Friday evening. It will then stall across W TX on Saturday. The dryline will sharpen up across E/SE NM this afternoon and into tomorrow.

As colder air filters into northwestern New Mexico later today behind the inbound cold front, snow levels are forecast to drop down from 10,000' MSL this morning, to around 7,000' MSL Friday morning. 

Today-

A warm and windy day is on tap for SE NM today. Southerly winds will increase later this morning at around 20-25G30-40 mph. Even windier conditions are forecast for the northern Sacramento Mtn's where a Wind Advisory will be in effect today. Southwesterly winds at around 25-40G55 mph are forecast after noontime.

A few isolated to widely scattered t-storms may pop up across parts of SE NM & W TX this afternoon and evening. The best chances for rain will generally be east of the Pecos River. Elevated Fire Weather Concerns are forecast today for SE NM as strong southern winds and low relative humidity values return.

Friday-

Things become a little more interesting tomorrow across the area. The dryline will sharpen up and will be draped across SE NM. A strong Pacific cold front will be approaching from the west. Increasing deep layered wind shear, steepening mid-level lapse rates, along with surface based cape values exceeding 1,000 j/kg, and a strengthening low-level jet, will all combine to potentially produce severe t-storms across the area.

As of early this morning, the best chances for severe weather on Friday appear to be roughly from the Pecos Valley eastward. The models haven't quite settled down with the exact details concerning this just yet.

Scattered supercell thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the dryline tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Some of these could last into Saturday morning. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, deadly cloud to ground lighting, and locally heavy rainfall that may produce localized flash flooding will all be possible.

There remains the possibility that Spotter Activation may be requested across parts of SE NM and W TX on Friday, and across W TX on Saturday. Skywarn spotters in the Midland, TX National Weather Service County Warning Area are requested to be on standby tomorrow and Saturday, and be prepared to activate should conditions warrant.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

T-Storms Ending By Noon.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Today.


Thursday - Friday.

Forecast Position Of The Cold Front At 6 PM Thu.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast Map.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Thu Oct 6,2011.

Today-

A few scattered rains showers and t-storms are roaming the plains of SE NM early this morning. A few of the mountain communities received some decent rainfall totals yesterday afternoon and overnight. As of 5:30 AM MDT, some of the heaviest of these include-

The Hodge Podge Lodge (Ruidoso) 1.36"
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 1.09"
Carrizozo Airport .77"
Smokey Bear Raws Near Ruidoso .48"
Mescal Raws - Mescalero .45"

8-Mile Draw Raws NE Of Roswell .27"
Mayhill Raws .22"
Roswell Airport ASOS .19"
Artesia Airport AWOS .15"
Dunken Raws .14"
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns .11"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .03"

Overall this activity should end by around noontime today as the upper-level disturbance now located over western New Mexico, moves northeastward and into the Texas Panhandle by this evening. High temps today should be in the mid 80's.

Thursday - Friday-

A stronger, and much colder mid-upper level storm (500 MB temps forecast to be -20 to -25F) will slowly crawl eastward to central Utah by Thursday afternoon. The dryline is forecast to become established over eastern and southeastern New Mexico tomorrow into Friday. A Pacific cold front is forecast to move into the local area on Friday.

Scattered t-storms should return to parts of E/SE NM & W TX Thursday afternoon as the atmospheric instability and moisture content increases. Severe t-storms will be possible in these areas, especially on Friday. Just exactly where the greatest threat for severe weather will be is a little uncertain at this time. However, a few supercell t-storms will likely form along and east of the dryline especially on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will produce localized flash flooding also.

Spotter activation remains a possibility across the area especially on Friday.

Thursday afternoon will likely become windy across the area as the surface pressure gradient tightens up, and the mid-upper level storm and cold front approach from the west. S-SW winds sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph can be expected, especially across the northern areas and near the mountains.

Cooler temps are forecast for the area this weekend behind the cold front with highs mostly in the 70's. Our overnight lows will likely dip down into at least the upper 40's

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Strong T-Storms This Afternoon.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Tonight.

Today.


Friday - Saturday.

Late This Afternoon Into Tonight.

Wednesday Into The Weekend.

Wednesday & Thursday.

Today.

Today-

A short wave trough of low pressure will seep eastward across southern New Mexico this afternoon, and across southeastern New Mexico tonight into tomorrow morning. Late this afternoon a few scattered t-storms are forecast to move off of the mountains and out into the plains. This activity will increase overnight into tomorrow morning.

A few of these t-storms will become strong, and possibly severe. Large hail, damaging t-storm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lighting, and locally heavy rain will all be possible with the strongest of these t-storms. This will be especially true over and near the mountains.

The greatest threat for severe weather will be across southern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. The strongest supercell t-storms will be capable of producing hail up to golf ball size, and damaging t-storm wind gusts of 70 mph or higher. Please view this special multimedia weather video presented by the El Paso National Weather Service Office.

Wednesday Into The Weekend-

As this first piece of upper level energy pulls eastward and out onto the Central Plains, a second and more powerful mid-upper level storm will be poised to crawl slowly eastward into the area into the weekend.

Severe t-storms will be possible across SE NM & W TX Thursday into Saturday. Windy weather will return to the area as well as the potent mid-upper level storm approaches from the west. It appears at this time that our best chances for t-storms and severe weather here in SE NM will occur Friday into Saturday.


High mountain snows will fall over the northern New Mexico Mountains Thursday night into Friday. Accumulating snowfall will be possible in these areas. Freezing temperatures will be possible across the Albuquerque valley areas Friday night.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Busy Week Ahead - Severe Weather Returns!

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.




5-Day Rainfall Total Forecast.
Valid Sun Oct 2 - Fri Oct 7, 2011 PM MDT.

European Model (ECMWF).

US GFS Model.

Update @ 5:45 PM MDT-

Special Multimedia Weather Briefing.

Video Briefing Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Update @ 9:40 AM MDT Mon Oct 3, 2011.

Its complicated, that best describes the upcoming changes in our local weather this week. I thought about writing an update to my blog this morning, but have changed my mind. I think I will wait until either this afternoon, or tomorrow morning to publish a new update on the impending changes. Severe t-storms, locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding, windy and cooler weather, are all still in the cards for this week, especially later in the work week so stay tuned.

Overall there really are no significant changes in the overall thinking concerning this weeks potential weather impacts. The details are fuzzy yet, so I will hold off on talking about this.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

A very active week is coming up weather-wise for New Mexico. A cold and powerful, slow moving upper level storm is forecast to drop southward out of the Pacific Northwest, and into the Desert Southwest this upcoming week. The first round of active weather will come from a negatively tilted upper-level trough of low pressure, that is forecast to move eastward out of southern California, and into the Southern Rockies by Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tuesday - Wednesday.

Round one of an active weather pattern will commence across SE NM and W TX by Tuesday afternoon. Showers and t-storms will start to increase across the area as this first upper-level storm approaches. Strong to possibly severe t-storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday across southern New Mexico, and perhaps across parts of the local area. Please visit the El Paso National Weather Service web page for additional details concerning this event across southern New Mexico.

Thursday - Sunday.

A very active, and likely wet periord of weather is on tap for New Mexico and West Texas. Our chances for good soaking rains are looking good as a powerful, slow moving upper-level storm crawls eastward across the area during this time frame. Multiple rounds of t-storms appear possible from the middle of next week into the end of the week. Some of these possibly becoming severe.

With an increasingly unstable atmosphere in place, strong southwesterly flow aloft, along with the dry line draped across NE/E/SE NM and W TX late next week, supercell t-storms look more like a possibility. Widespread beneficial rainfall appears to be a pretty good possibility from the middle of the week into the weekend. Heavy rainfall will be possible in some areas.

Please visit the Midland National Weather Service , or the Lubbock National Weather Service web pages for additional details concerning this event across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.

Snow will be a possibility across New Mexico's higher mountain peaks later this week. A stormy week appears to be on tap for the state. Windy weather will return to the state along with periods of rain and t-storms. Please visit the Albuquerque National Weather Service web page for additional details concerning this event that is forecast to impact New Mexico next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Big Changes Late Next Week.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.





Looking ahead to the middle to the end of next week looks really interesting. The seasons first significant upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to dive southward out of the Pacific Northwest, and into the Desert Southwest.

This will be the fall seasons first major storm, and it will likely produce high mountain snows across the Four-Corners Region. Just how far south it digs, and how strong it will become, will be a determining factors in how much, if any precipitation falls in SE NM and W TX.

Severe weather could also be a possibility over parts of the plains states as well. This possibly could include parts of W TX, and maybe even NE/E/SE NM. Its too early for any of the details but it certainly bears watching.

Keep checking back, I will keep the updates concerning this strong fall storm posted here.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!