Another upper-level storm located over southern Nevada early this morning will swing across northern New Mexico today into tomorrow. As long as these storms take a northern route across the state, southeastern New Mexico has little chance of seeing any meaningful precipitation.
Today will be breezy and warm with our afternoon highs again climbing up into the low-mid 70's Southwesterly winds at around 20 mph will gust up to near 35 mph across the southeastern plains this afternoon.
West Texas Today-
Scattered t-storms are forecast to erupt along and east of the dryline across West Texas later this afternoon and evening. Some of these will becomesevereand produce large hail, and damaging t-storm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, along with deadly frequent cloud to ground lightning. The best chances for severe t-storms will be across the eastern Permian Basin later this afternoon and evening.
Sacramento Mountains Today-
A Wind Advisory has been issued by the El Paso National Weather Service Office for today for the southern Sacramento mountains. Southwest-west winds sustained at around 25-35G45 mph are forecast for the Cloudcroft-Mayhill-Weed-Sacramento-Pinion-High Rolls areas this afternoon. The higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains around Cloudcroft have a 20% chance of seeing scattered snow showers today and tonight.Ruidoso has a 20% chance of seeing scattered rain showers today and snow showers tonight. Significant accumulations are not expected at this time.
Tonight Into Thursday-
A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across the local area this afternoon, this will bring cooler temperatures to the area tomorrow into Thursday. Highs tomorrow will range from the low-mid 60's. A re-enforcing shot of cooler air Tuesday night will keep our daytime highs down into the low-mid 50's on Wednesday, and the upper 50's to low 60's on Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the 20's across SE NM.
Long-range computer models continue to hint at a stormy period from this upcoming weekend into next week. A series of storm upper-level storms are forecast to dive southward into the area and keep our weather unsettled. The first storm is due around next Saturday, and may produce some decent snowfall totals across the mountains.
Severe T-Storms Possible Monday Afternoon - Evening
Across The Eastern Permian Basin of West Texas.
As crazy as it sounds this may become a reality.I realize that it is nearly the middle of November but mother nature appears to care less. The next upper-level storm is forecast to send a strong trough of low pressure into the area Monday and Tuesday.
SE NM & W TX Tonight-
The dryline is forecast to become established near the New Mexico/Texas State line tonight. A few t-storms will be possible along and east of the dryline late tonight, mainly from Lea County eastward. A few of these t-storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Please click on this link to view the latestHazardous Weather Outlook from theMidland National Weather Service Office.
West Texas Monday Afternoon & Evening-
A better chance for t-storms will occur across West Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening as low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico increases and the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Some of these t-storms may become severe across the Eastern Permian Basin of West Texas. A few supercell t-storms will be possible and will be capable of producing large hail, damaging t-storm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
Our recent active weather pattern will continue this week as yet another strong upper-level storm takes aim on the state. This one appears to be a little stronger, and will dig a little further south than yesterdays storm. This will give the Sacramento mountains another shot at seeing some snow.
Highs today will range from the low 60's to near 70. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 60's to the mid 70's. A Pacific cold front will move eastward across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning bringing cooler weather with it. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from near 60 to the mid 60's. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 50's to near 60.
The largest earthquake in Oklahoma's history occurred Saturday night and centered near Sparks, 44 miles northeast of Oklahoma City. The 5.6 quake caused damage but early reports indicate nor injuries or deaths from the quake have been reported so far.
Today will be one of those days when I stay inside and out of the wind and dirt. A few mountain rain and snow showers will be possible today across the Sacramento's but nothing significant is anticipated from this storm. We are in a progressive upper level pattern with one storm after another affecting the area about every 3-4 days. Unfortunately these fast moving upper-level storms are dry windbags, and not rain and snow producers for southeastern New Mexico.
A strong upper-level trough of low pressure was entering southwestern New Mexico early this morning. Mid-level winds associated with this trough at the 500 millibar or 18,000' MSL were in the order of 90-100 knots (104-115 mph). At the surface a Pacific cold front was entering western New Mexico, and will sweep eastward into southeastern New Mexico by around noontime.
Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase across the area this morning, and really ramp up by noontime. Southwest winds sustained at around 25-35G50 mph are anticipated across the lower elevations of the southeastern plains. These winds will gradually subside after sunset.
Areas of blowing dust are forecast to develop across southern New Mexico, southeastern New Mexico, as well as west Texas. Sudden drops in the visibility down to less than 1 mile will be possible across the area today, especially over and near freshly exposed or plowed farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites.
Our afternoon high temperatures will climb up into the low-mid 70's today ahead of the front. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs in the 60's. Our temperatures will rise back up into the 70's on Monday ahead of the second storm poised to affect the Land of Enchantment. We should only be in the 50's by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
It's that time of the year again. High winds and blowing dust forecast to impact much of the local area Saturday, along with near Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions. A strong and digging upper-level trough of low pressure currently centered over southern California, will swing rapidly eastward towards New Mexico tonight and tomorrow. By Saturday night it will be moving northeastward and out of the state into the central plains.
A 90-100 knot (104-115 mph) jet will round the bottom or the trough of low pressure tomorrow, while a 40-50 knot (46-58 mph) 700 MB (10,000' MSL) jet will accompany it. Across the central and northern areas of the state these mid-level winds (700 MB or 10,000' MSL) are forecast to howl at around 50-75 knots (58-86 mph.) These strong winds aloft will mix downward to the surface starting tonight as the upper-level storm and its associated Pacific cold front approach the area from the west.
As the upper-level storm and the Pacific cold front sweep eastward across the state tomorrow, southwesterly winds will rake the area.A High Wind Watch has been posted for the Guadalupe, and Sacramento mountains, as well as most of central and northeastern New Mexico. A Wind Advisory may be posted for parts of southeastern New Mexico as well later today.
Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase over the mountains tonight, and increase even more so on Saturday. These winds will become sustained at around 35-45 mph with gusts near 60 mph across the Sacramento mountains. Across the Guadalupe mountains southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 35-50 mph with gusts near 65 mph on Saturday.
SE New Mexico Plains.
A warm-up will commence today as southeasterly winds pick up this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated with our afternoon highs forecast to range from the upper 60's to the low 70's.
Strong southwesterly winds will increase across the local area by tomorrow morning. By late in the morning these winds will increase to sustained speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Some higher gusts will be experienced in a few of the more wind prone areas and near the foothills and mountains. High temps tomorrow are forecast to range from near 70 to the mid 70's.
Areas of blowing dust may develop tomorrow afternoon as the Pacific cold front moves through. Some locations may experience drops in the visibility down to less than 1 mile, this will be especially true near open or freshly plowed farmlands, fields, lots, construction sites, and other dust prone areas.
A few light rain showers may dot the landscape tomorrow afternoon, especially over and near the mountains. The snow level is forecast to drop down to around 7,000' MSL across the Sacramento mountains. Cloudcroft has a 20% chance of snow showers tonight into tomorrow. Ruidoso has a 20% chance of seeing rainand or snow showers tomorrow. At this time significant snowfall totals are not anticipated across the Sacramento mountains from this storm.
A second and stronger upper-level storm is forecast to affect the state Monday and Tuesday. This next storm is forecast by the models to dig a little further south than Saturday's storm. It may produce scattered rain showers across the lower elevations of the area, and a better chance for snow showers across the mountains. But it too will be a wind bag.
"Big sunspot AR1339 (described below) unleashed an X2-class solar flare on Nov. 3rd at 2027 UT. A movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultaviolet flash. The flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal progagation of radio waves over Europe and the Americas."
"NOAA forecasters have upgraded the chance of X-class solar flares today to 20%. The source would be AR1339, one of the biggest sunspots in many years. The active region rotated over the sun's eastern limb two days ago and now it is turning toward Earth.
The sunspot has already unleashed one X-flare on Nov. 3rd around 2027 UT. Amovie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultraviolet flash:
The flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal propagation of radio waves over Europe and the Americas. In Ireland, the flare's effect was felt even after dark.
A cloud of plasma or "CME" raced away from the blast site at 1100 km/s. The CME is not heading for Earth. It is, however, heading for Mercury and Venus. Click on this link to view a movie of the CME's forecast track."
Huge Cloud Of Blowing Dust Across W TX & SE NM At 4:55 PM MDT.
For Second Time In A Week Snow Is Falling Across NE NM.
Snapshot Off The Cannon AFB Doppler Radar Using
"My SE NM Radar" On My Web Page. Be Sure To Check
The "Winterize Box" To Change The View To The Winter Mode.
Cold Front Arrives In Carlsbad At 9:30 AM MDT.
Pre-frontal compressional heating drove my temperature up here at the house to 75 at 9:39 AM. Then the winds shifted around to the northwest with gusts to 30 mph, the pressure started rising rapidly, and my temp fell to 68 by 10 AM. The anticipated cold front has arrived, and now our temperatures are headed downward throughout the rest of the day.