Monday, November 7, 2011

Tornado Watch #874 Issued For W TX Until 4 AM MST.

Tornado Watch #874 In Effect Until 4 AM MST/5 AM CST.


Watch #874 For West Texas. The Watch Is In 
Effect Until 4 AM MST/5 AM CST. It Includes
The Midland/Odessa Area. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Severe T-Storms Across West Texas.






Warm & Breezy Today - Cooler Tuesday - Thursday.

Another upper-level storm located over southern Nevada early this morning will swing across northern New Mexico today into tomorrow. As long as these storms take a northern route across the state, southeastern New Mexico has little chance of seeing any meaningful precipitation.

Today-

Today will be breezy and warm with our afternoon highs again climbing up into the low-mid 70's Southwesterly winds at around 20 mph will gust up to near 35 mph across the southeastern plains this afternoon.

West Texas Today-

Scattered t-storms are forecast to erupt along and east of the dryline across West Texas later this afternoon and evening. Some of these will become severe and produce large hail, and damaging t-storm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, along with deadly frequent cloud to ground lightning. The best chances for severe t-storms will be across the eastern Permian Basin later this afternoon and evening.

Sacramento Mountains Today-

A Wind Advisory has been issued by the El Paso National Weather Service Office for today for the southern Sacramento mountains. Southwest-west winds sustained at around 25-35G45 mph are forecast for the Cloudcroft-Mayhill-Weed-Sacramento-Pinion-High Rolls areas this afternoon. The higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains around Cloudcroft have a 20% chance of seeing scattered snow showers today and tonight. Ruidoso has a 20% chance of seeing scattered rain showers today and snow showers tonight. Significant accumulations are not expected at this time.

Tonight Into Thursday-

 A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across the local area this afternoon, this will bring cooler temperatures to the area tomorrow into Thursday. Highs tomorrow will range from the low-mid 60's. A re-enforcing shot of cooler air Tuesday night will keep our daytime highs down into the low-mid 50's on Wednesday, and the upper 50's to low 60's on Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the 20's across SE NM.

Long-range computer models continue to hint at a stormy period from this upcoming weekend into next week. A series of storm upper-level storms are forecast to dive southward into the area and keep our weather unsettled. The first storm is due around next Saturday, and may produce some decent snowfall totals across the mountains. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Storm #2 Mon-Tue.



Severe Weather Outlook For Mon Nov 7, 2011.

Severe T-Storms Possible Monday Afternoon - Evening 
Across The Eastern Permian Basin of West Texas.

As crazy as it sounds this may become a reality.I realize that it is nearly the middle of November but mother nature appears to care less. The next upper-level storm is forecast to send a strong trough of low pressure into the area Monday and Tuesday.

SE NM & W TX Tonight-

 The dryline is forecast to become established near the New Mexico/Texas State line tonight. A few t-storms will be possible along and east of the dryline late tonight, mainly from Lea County eastward. A few of these t-storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Please click on this link to view the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Midland National Weather Service Office.

West Texas Monday Afternoon & Evening-

 A better chance for t-storms will occur across West Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening as low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico increases and the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Some of these t-storms may become severe across the Eastern Permian Basin of West Texas. A few supercell t-storms will be possible and will be capable of producing large hail, damaging t-storm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. 

Southeastern New Mexico Monday -Wednesday-



Valid At 5 PM MST Mon Nov 7, 2011.

Storm #2 Arrives Mon-Tue.

Our recent active weather pattern will continue this week as yet another strong upper-level storm takes aim on the state. This one appears to be a little stronger, and will dig a little further south than yesterdays storm. This will give the Sacramento mountains another shot at seeing some snow.

Highs today will range from the low 60's to near 70. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 60's to the mid 70's. A Pacific cold front will move eastward across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning bringing cooler weather with it. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from near 60 to the mid 60's. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 50's to near 60.

Southwesterly winds will pick up across the area on Monday but will not be anywhere near as strong as they were on Sunday across SE NM. For a summary of the peak gusts recorded across the local area on Sunday please visit this link: http://www.senmwx.com/2011/11/peak-wind-gusts-today.html#links.

Or you can view yesterday's blogs (or any of my recent blogs) via any of the new blog looks (Classic Mode, Magazine Mode, Sidebar Mode, Timeslide Mode, Flipcard Mode, Mosaic Mode, or Snapshot mode.) If you want to view just my daily blogs via your smart phone then please use this link- http://www.senmwx.com/?m=1

Looking Ahead To A Stormy Pattern.

Both The European (ECMWF) And The GFS Depict A
Pattern Of Below Normal Heights At 500 Millibars
(18,000' Mean Sea Level) Over The Next 10 Days.

One storm may affect the state this weekend with the potential
for a stronger and colder storm early next week. It appears
that a pattern change may be developing, and this could
potentially mean better chances for rain and snow across
New Mexico, especially over our mountains.


First Image Is Before The Earthquake.

Second Image Is During The Earthquake.

Third Image Is After The Earthquake.

The largest earthquake in Oklahoma's history occurred Saturday night and centered near Sparks, 44 miles northeast of Oklahoma City. The 5.6 quake caused damage but early reports indicate nor injuries or deaths from the quake have been reported so far.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Peak Wind Gusts Today.

It's a stormy morning in Ruidoso, New Mexico this morning.
This captured this screenshot at 9:00 AM MDT off of the

 At 8:55 AM this morning, the 
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport located northeast of town
has clocked a peak wind gust to 77 mph.

Local Peak Wind Gusts Today-
(As of 3 PM MDT)

Taos Airport ASOS 82 mph
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 77 mph
Guadalupe Pass ASOS 77 mph
San Augustin Pass 74 mph
Bowl Raws - 1/2 Mile N of Guadalupe Peak 70 mph
Sacramento Peak - Sunspot 63 mph
Dunken Raws - 45 Miles W of Artesia 62 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 62 mph

Queen Raws 59 mph
Roswell Airport ASOS 58 mph
Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 56 mph
Pinery Raws 56 mph
Pine Springs - GMN 55 mph
Mescal Raws - Mescalero 55 mph
Cannon AFB - Clovis 53 mph
Artesia Airport AWOS 53 mph
High Rolls CW5738 52 mph
Roswell Portable Raws #1 - Near Ft. Stanton 50 mph
2 SW Tatum 50 mph

Mayhill Raws 49 mph
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns 49 mph
El Paso Airport ASOS 48 mph
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 47 mph
8-Mile Draw Raws - NE of Roswell 46 mph
Cosmic Raws - Apache Summit 40 mph
Hobbs Airport 40 mph

Wind Speeds Are Courtesy Of-


Wind Speeds Will Be Updated Throughout The Day.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Windy - Dusty Today!




Winds Will Be On The Increase Throughout The Morning.

Valid From 9 AM - 6 PM MDT.
SW Winds 25-35G50 MPH.

Continues Through 6 PM MDT
SW Winds 35-45G65 MPH.

Continues Through 6 PM MDT.
SW-W Winds 35-45G55-65 MPH.

Continues Through 4 PM MDT.
SW Winds 30-40G55-65 MPH.

Today will be one of those days when I stay inside and out of the wind and dirt. A few mountain rain and snow showers will be possible today across the Sacramento's but nothing significant is anticipated from this storm. We are in a progressive upper level pattern with one storm after another affecting the area about every 3-4 days. Unfortunately these fast moving upper-level storms  are dry windbags, and not rain and snow producers for southeastern New Mexico.

A strong upper-level trough of low pressure was entering southwestern New Mexico early this morning. Mid-level winds associated with this trough at the 500 millibar or 18,000' MSL were in the order of 90-100 knots (104-115 mph). At the surface a Pacific cold front was entering western New Mexico, and will sweep eastward into southeastern New Mexico by around noontime. 

Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase across the area this morning, and really ramp up by noontime. Southwest winds sustained at around 25-35G50 mph are anticipated across the lower elevations of the southeastern plains. These winds will gradually subside after sunset.

Areas of blowing dust are forecast to develop across southern New Mexico, southeastern New Mexico, as well as west Texas. Sudden drops in the visibility down to less than 1 mile will be possible across the area today, especially over and near freshly exposed or plowed farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites.

Our afternoon high temperatures will climb up into the low-mid 70's today ahead of the front. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs in the 60's. Our temperatures will rise back up into the 70's on Monday ahead of the second storm poised to affect the Land of Enchantment. We should only be in the 50's by next Tuesday and Wednesday. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Friday, November 4, 2011

High Wind- Blowing Dust Event Saturday.


Valid 6 AM MDT Sat Nov 5, 2011.


(Map Added AT 9:30 AM MDT.)

High Winds - Blowing Dust - High Fire Danger Saturday.

Special Media Briefing By NWS El Paso On Saturday's Winds.
(Posted Here At 10:05 AM MDT.)

Blog Updated At 5:30PM MDT For-


Wind Advisory For Chaves County Saturday.
Valid From 6 AM - 4 PM MDT.
(SW Winds 25-35G40-50 MPH)

Wind Advisory For Eddy - Lea Counties Saturday.
Valid From 9 AM - 6 PM MDT.
(SW Winds 25-35G45 MPH)

High Wind Warning For The Guadalupe Mtns.
Valid 3 AM - 6 PM MDT.
(SW Winds 35-45G65 MPH)

High Wind Warning For The Southern Sacramento Mtn's.
Valid 6 AM - 6 PM MDT.
(SW-W Winds 35-45G55-65 MPH)

High Wind Warning Northern Sacramento Mtn's.
Valid Midnight Tonight - 4 PM MDTSaturday.
(SW Winds 35-45G55-65 MPH)

It's that time of the year again. High winds and blowing dust forecast to impact much of the local area Saturday, along with near Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions. A strong and digging upper-level trough of low pressure currently centered over southern California, will swing rapidly eastward towards New Mexico tonight and tomorrow. By Saturday night it will be moving northeastward and out of the state into the central plains.

A 90-100 knot (104-115 mph) jet will round the bottom or the trough of low pressure tomorrow, while a 40-50 knot (46-58 mph) 700 MB (10,000' MSL) jet will accompany it. Across the central and northern areas of the state these mid-level winds (700 MB or 10,000' MSL) are forecast to howl at around 50-75 knots (58-86 mph.) These strong winds aloft will mix downward to the surface starting tonight as the upper-level storm and its associated Pacific cold front approach the area from the west.

As the upper-level storm and the Pacific cold front sweep eastward across the state tomorrow, southwesterly winds will rake the area. A High Wind Watch has been posted for the Guadalupe, and Sacramento mountains, as well as most of central and northeastern New Mexico. A Wind Advisory may be posted for parts of southeastern New Mexico as well later today.

Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase over the mountains tonight, and increase even more so on Saturday. These winds will become sustained at around 35-45 mph with gusts near 60 mph across the Sacramento mountains. Across the Guadalupe mountains southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 35-50 mph with gusts near 65 mph on Saturday.

SE New Mexico Plains.

A warm-up will commence today as southeasterly winds pick up this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated with our afternoon highs forecast to range from the upper 60's to the low 70's.

Strong southwesterly winds will increase across the local area by tomorrow morning. By late in the morning these winds will increase to sustained speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Some higher gusts will be experienced in a few of the more wind prone areas and near the foothills and mountains. High temps tomorrow are forecast to range from near 70 to the mid 70's.

Areas of blowing dust may develop tomorrow afternoon as the Pacific cold front moves through. Some locations may experience drops in the visibility down to less than 1 mile, this will be especially true near open or freshly plowed farmlands, fields, lots, construction sites, and other dust prone areas.

A few light rain showers may dot the landscape tomorrow afternoon, especially over and near the mountains. The snow level is forecast to drop down to around 7,000' MSL across the Sacramento mountains. Cloudcroft has a 20% chance of snow showers tonight into tomorrow. Ruidoso has a 20% chance of seeing rain and or snow showers tomorrow. At this time significant snowfall totals are not anticipated across the Sacramento mountains from this storm.

A second and stronger upper-level storm is forecast to affect the state Monday and Tuesday. This next storm is forecast by the models to dig a little further south than Saturday's storm. It may produce scattered rain showers across the lower elevations of the area, and a better chance for snow showers across the mountains. But it too will be a wind bag.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Massive Sunspot AR1339.



‎"Big sunspot AR1339 (described below) unleashed an X2-class solar flare on Nov. 3rd at 2027 UT. A movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultaviolet flash. The flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal progagation of radio waves over Europe and the Americas."

 "NOAA forecasters have upgraded the chance of X-class solar flares today to 20%. The source would be AR1339, one of the biggest sunspots in many years. The active region rotated over the sun's eastern limb two days ago and now it is turning toward Earth. 

The sunspot has already unleashed one X-flare on Nov. 3rd around 2027 UT. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal propagation of radio waves over Europe and the Americas. In Ireland, the flare's effect was felt even after dark.

A cloud of plasma or "CME" raced away from the blast site at 1100 km/s. The CME is not heading for Earth. It is, however, heading for Mercury and Venus. Click on this link to view a movie of the CME's forecast track."


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Coldest Morning Of The Season.

Mtn Wave Clouds Southwest Of Carlsbad, NM Yesterday.
(Altocumulus Standing Lenticular-ACSL)

Blowing Dust Reducing The Visibility Along US Hwy 285
Near Brantley Lake At 11:11 AM MDT Yesterday.

Low Temperatures This Morning.
(Updated At 8:20 PM MDT).

Chaves County-

Dunken Raws 21
10 Miles ESE Hagerman 23
8-Mile Draw Raws 25
Roswell Climate 26
Roswell Airport ASOS 27

Eddy County-

Caprock Climate 22
Cottonwood 23
Artesia Climate 23
Hope Climate 24
Alfadale - Atoka 25
Artesia Airport 26
Queen Raws 26
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 27
2.1 Miles NNW Downtown Carlsbad 28
Carlsbad Climate 29
Caprock Raws 29
Carlsbad Caverns Climate 30
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns 32

Lea County-

Willow Wells Raws 23
Crossroads Raws 23
Tatum Climate 25
Paduca Raws 25
East Hobbs 26
Woody Farms - 11 Miles N of Hobbs 26
Hobbs Airport 27
NW Hobbs (KM5BS) 28
NE Lovington 29

Lincoln County-

Roswell Portable Raws #1 - NE of Ft. Stanton 11
Eagle & Sudderth - Ruidoso 16
Ruidoso Climate 16
Smokey Bear Raws - Ruidoso 17
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 19
Hodge Podge Lodge - Ruidoso 19
Carrizozo Airport 20

Otero County-

Dry Canon - East of Cloudcroft 14
Grulke on Bigfoot - NE of Cloudcroft 15
Cloudcroft Climate 16
Weed - DRO 16
Mayhill Raws 17
Timberon 18
Mescal Raws - Mescalero 21
Sacramento Peak - Sunspot 26

Culberson County-

Bowl Raws 20
McKittrick Canyon Raws 23
Dog Canyon Climate 25
Pine Springs -GMN 26
Pinery Raws - Pine Springs 27
Guadalupe Pass ASOS 27
Dog Canyon Raws 28
Dell City 29

This list will be updated later today as additional temps become available.

Temperature Data Is Courtesy Of-


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Front Has Arrived.

Temperature Map At 9:00 AM MDT.
Temperature Map At 3 PM MDT.

Visible Satellite Image of NM At 9:15 AM MDT.

Visible Satellite Image.
Huge Cloud Of Blowing Dust Across W TX & SE NM
At 4:55 PM MDT.

For Second Time In A Week Snow Is Falling Across NE NM.
Snapshot Off The Cannon AFB Doppler Radar Using
"My SE NM Radar" On My Web Page. Be Sure To Check
The "Winterize Box" To Change The View To The Winter Mode.

Cold Front Arrives In Carlsbad At 9:30 AM MDT.

Pre-frontal compressional heating drove my temperature up here at the house to 75 at 9:39 AM. Then the winds shifted around to the northwest with gusts to 30 mph, the pressure started rising rapidly, and my temp fell to 68 by 10 AM. The anticipated cold front has arrived, and now our temperatures are headed downward throughout the rest of the day.

Regional Temps At 10 AM MDT-

Carlsbad Airport ASOS 75
Paduca Raws 74
2.1 Miles NNW of Downtown Carlsbad 68
Hobbs Airport 68
Artesia Airport AWOS 63 (N G46 mph)
Caprock Raws 63

Roswell Airport ASOS 59 (N G51 mph)
Dunken Raws 55
8-Mile Draw Raws 52
Denver City, TxX 51

Tatum 48
Willow Wells Raws 46
Dora Raws 45
Crossroads Raws 44
Cannon AFB Clovis 42
Tucumcari 40

Clayton 32 (Light Snow Wind Chill 17)
Raton 30 (Light Snow Wind Chill 13)

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!