Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM.

History Channels "Little Ice Age - Big Chill."

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Winter Storm Watch In Effect For Sunday!

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 8:00 PM MST.



Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's
And Much Of The Permian Basin.
Valid From 5 AM - 11 PM MSTSunday.
Wintry Mix Of Sleet & Snow.
Sleet Accumulations Of 1/4".
Snowfall Totals Of 1" - 3".
Dangerous Driving Conditions!

Guadalupe Mtn's
Valid 5 PM This Aftn - 5 AM MST Sunday.
NE Winds 35 - 45G60 MPH.

Winter Weather Advisory!
Chaves - Roosevelt - Curry Co's
Valid From 5 AM - 11 PM MST Sunday.
Freezing Rain - Sleet - 1" - 3" Of Snow.

Alamogordo - Dell City - Cloudcroft Areas.
Valid From 5 AM - 8 PM MST Sunday.
Freezing Rain & Sleet Lower Elevations.
3" - 5" Of Snow In The Mountains - Isolated Heavier Totals.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Albuquerque.
Areas Of Dense Freezing Fog NE-E-SE NM Tonight.
Includes The Clovis-Portales, Ruidoso, Roswell Areas.
Pockets Of Black Ice On Roadways.



Today's Outlook-


As of 8 AM this morning, arctic air continues to filter southward and westward into southeastern New Mexico. Temperatures ranged from 14F in Clayton with a wind chill of 3F, to 21F in Tucumcari with a wind chill of 7F, 22F in Clovis with a wind chill of 10F, 22F in Tatum with a wind chill of 7F, 25F in Hobbs with a wind chill of 11F, 30F in Roswell, 32F in Artesia, and 33F in Carlsbad. Areas of light snow, and freezing fog blanket much of northeastern and eastern New Mexico. A Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM this morning for these areas.

Arctic air will continue to funnel into the local area especially late this afternoon into tonight. Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from 36 in Hobbs, 46 in Carlsbad, 48 in Artesia, and 48 in Roswell. The arctic air will deepen across the area tonight sending our low temperatures down into teens and low 20's. With northeasterly to easterly winds at around 10-15 mph expected tonight, wind chill values will dip down to the -2F to 10F range.

Sunday's Outlook-


Update At 3:10 PM MST This Afternoon- Although it appears that the threat for freezing rain may have diminished over parts of SE NM, specifically Eddy and Lea Counties, there will still be areas of freezing rain across parts of West Texas and southern New Mexico. I am not 100% convinced that we still won't see pockets of freezing rain mixing in with the sleet and snow here in Eddy and Lea Counties. This storm is becoming more complicated to try and figure out with time...so I think its prudent to be aware of any changes in our local forecasts.

Conditions are still forecast to deteriorate across the area later tonight. A layer of sleet may first cover the ground late tonight, or early tomorrow morning, then 1" - 3" of snow is forecast to fall on top of that throughout the day tomorrow. If pockets of freezing rain do break out locally, then our roads will become even more dangerous that what is currently expected.

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An upper-level storm is located along the central California coast this morning. This storm is forecast to drop southeastward into the northern Baja, California Region by sunrise tomorrow morning. The models then swing it eastward into western New Mexico by sunset tomorrow, and out of the state by around sunrise Monday morning.

I am just a tad leery of this given the history and storm tracks of our previous winter storms this winter. The trend has been for the models to not drop these winter storms far enough to the south, and then sweeping them eastward too fast. This may not be the case with this storm, but I will not be one surprised if this it does not dig further south into northern Mexico, and not exiting the area as soon as what is currently being forecast. If this ends up being the case then our wintry weather will hang around later than forecast, and could last into Monday. We will see.

A mix of sleet, and snow is forecast to break out across the area late tonight and continue into Sunday evening. There is also the remote possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two across the area. The threat for freezing rain across the local area appears to have diminished according to the latest computer model forecast runs. Sleet may accumulate in some areas up to 1/4". To complicate matters widespread snowfall totals of around 1" - 3".

Needless to say our local roadways will turn into skating rinks if this forecast pans out across the area. I would suspect that there would also be some areas of freezing fog which contribute to the dangerous driving conditions anticipated across the area. Sunday may be one of those days that if you absolutely do not have to travel, then it might be wise to just kick back at home and enjoy our latest bout with winter. There will be the possibility of some road closures across SE NM and W TX. For the latest road conditions please visit these sites; New Mexico Roads, Texas Roads.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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