Early this morning the dryline was in the process of backing westward into southeastern New Mexico. It will mix eastward this afternoon, and by sunset will be located in Lea County, extending southward to the Texas Big Bend Area. A cold front will move southward into the local area late this afternoon or early this evening. Our afternoon highs today should be in the low-mid 80's.
Low-level upslope southeasterly flow along and east of the dryline, and easterly upslope flow along, and behind the cold front this afternoon into tonight, will aide in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the area. It feels sort of weird talking about thunderstorms and the possibility of severe weather in southeastern New Mexico since we skipped this last spring.
Thunderstorms are forecast to increase across the local area late this afternoon into tonight as the cold front enters southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. Given the fact that the atmosphere is forecast to become increasingly more unstable with time this afternoon, severe thunderstorms will be a possibility. We currently have a 60% probability of Skywarn Spotter Activation around 3 PM MDT.
Surface based cape values are forecast to be around 1500 J/JG, along with bulk wind shear values of around 40 knots, steep mid-level lapse rates, low dew point depressions, and helicity values of at least 300 m/s. The triple point (intersection of the dryline and cold front) is forecast to setup in far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon into tonight. A few supercell thunderstorms may develop. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary severe weather threats. Localized flash flooding may occur with some of the heaviest downpours, and some locals may see rainfall totals of more than one inch.
There will be a risk of an isolated tornado or two along and east of the triple point and along and behind the cold front this afternoon. Early this morning the best probability's of this occurring appear to be across the Western Rolling plains, the Trans Pecos area, and across the Permian Basin of west Texas.
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