Quote- "In addition to flash flooding, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight and Monday across a large part of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather threats."
(Issued Initially At 6:48 AM MDT)
(Next Update At 10:30 AM MDT)
Categorical Outlook Today.
Damaging Wind Threat.
Important....I expect that today and tonight going to become very busy for me and our local Skywarn Spotter Groups here in southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas. I will not keep this blog updated today, I will not have time. I may not be able to keep you updated via myFfacebook pages and twitter either.
Please do not rely on me personally to keep you up to date concerning our local severe weather today. The links on my web page will provide you with the up to date latest information courtesy of our local National Weather Service Offices, when you click on them.
I plan on going out chasing today across southeastern New Mexico and will be monitoring the West Texas Connection via amateur radio. All Eddy/Lea/Culberson County Skywarn Amateur Radio Storm Spotters please monitor these frequencies for spotter traffic today.
West Texas Connection - W5COW (444.975 )
West Texas Connection - Dark Canyon Repeater (147.120)
West Texas Connection - Maljamar Repeater (442.075)
Severe Weather Outbreak Today Into Tonight!
A cold front will move into SE NM and parts of west Texas later this afternoon. A short wave trough of low pressure centered over Arizona early this morning will dive southeastward towards the area tonight into Monday. Scattered t-storms are forecast to increase across the mountains of central and southeastern New Mexico today and then move east and southeastward into southeastern New Mexico later this afternoon and evening. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) or a large complex of t-storms is forecast to move out of southeastern New Mexico into west Texas tonight.
A few supercell t-storms will be possible across southeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, and perhaps parts of west Texas. At this time it appears that large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning will be the primary severe weather threats. A damaging wind threat will exists across the area tonight. Additional severe t-storms will be possible across the area again on Monday.
At this time is appears that the threat for tornadoes across southeastern New Mexico is fairly low. However, this will have to be watched this afternoon and evening given the fact that a northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in place, along with an approaching cold front, and the short wave. This will be especially true should any supercell t-storm become rooted at the surface.
I do anticipate activating our local Skywarn Spotter Groups in Eddy/Lea/Culberson Counties this afternoon into this evening.
A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for Eddy/Lea/Culberson Counties as well as across parts of west Texas from 6 PM MDT this evening through 6 PM MDT Monday. Most of us received 1"-3" of rain last week, and thunderstorms are expected to produce rainfall rates of at least 1"-2" per hour in some locations.
There is a significant risk of flash flooding across the local area. The flash flood threat will increase across the local area tonight into tomorrow morning. Never drive or attempt to walk across a flooded arroyo, do not let your children play or swim in flooded arroyos and bar ditches. Remember, Turn Around - Don't Drown!
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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