Saturday, January 7, 2012

More Snow Headed To SE New Mexico!

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 3:00 PM MST Today.


This Map Does Not Update On This Blog-
Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.



This Map Does Not Update On This Blog-
Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.


This Map Does Not Update On This Blog-
Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.
Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Valid At 5 AM MST Mon Jan 9, 2012.


Winter Storm Watch.

Late Sunday Night - Monday Afternoon.
Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's.
3" - 7" Snowfall Guadalupe Mtns.
3" - 6" Snowfall Lower Elevations SE NM & W TX.
Locally Heavier Totals Possible...Especially Mtn's.
Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.
N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.
Low Visibilities.


Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon.
Chaves-Roosevelt-Curry-De Baca Co's.
3" - 6" Snowfall - Locally Heavier Totals Possible.
Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.
N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.
Low Visibilities.


6 AM Sunday Morning - 6 AM Monday Morning.
Lincoln-SW Chaves Co's.
6" - 9" Snowfall Above 7,500'.
Locally 12" Possible Higher Slopes.
3"- 6" Below 7,500'.
Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.
N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.
Low Visibilities.

Winter Storm Warning.

11 AM Sunday Morning - 1 PM Monday Afternoon.
Southern Sacramento Mtn's.
4" - 8" Snowfall.
Locally Heavier Totals Higher Slopes Possible.
NE Winds 10-20G35 mph.
Localized Blowing & Drifting Snow.
Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.
N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.
Low Visibilities.

Yet Another Major Winter Storm For NM!

Update At 3:00 PM MST Today-

Current model trends indicate that yet another strong closed upper-level low will be located over southwestern New Mexico by sunset Sunday. This cold and very strong upper-level storm will then drift southeastward towards the local area Monday into Tuesday. The models may still be underestimating the strength of the storm.

Rain should break out across SE NM by around sunset Sunday, but will quickly change over to all snow. Snow will fall earlier in the day across the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mtn's. There is the real possibility that we may yet again be dealing with another Major Winter Storm across much of New Mexico, including southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas.

Much as our Christmas storm wrecked havoc with local driving conditions...this next incoming Major Winter Storm has the potential to do the same across many areas of the state, as well as the local area. Heavy snowfall is now forecast for all of our area from Sunday night into Tuesday morning.

Convective bands of snow showers (thunder snow) will also be possible...and these may produce localized very heavy snowfall totals in a few places. Road closures will be possible in many areas of New Mexico, including southeastern New Mexico, Sunday into Tuesday.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter Storm #3 is getting ready to take aim on SE NM Sunday night into Tuesday. This will be Winter Storm #6 for the rest of New Mexico. After suffering through one of the most brutal summers on record, the snow and rain are very much welcome. However, once again this next Major Winter Storm is forecast to cause travel headaches across the state. For the very latest road conditions across New Mexico please visit this site. New Mexico Roads.

A strong upper-level short wave trough of low pressure is forecast to drop southward into the Four-Corners Region today. It will then settle southward into southwestern New Mexico, or southeastern Arizona tonight, and then crawl slowly eastward across southern New Mexico, or Northern Mexico Monday into Tuesday. There are still some some differences in the exact forecast track of this storm in the models, so just where the heaviest snowfall will occur, and when, is still somewhat questionable early this morning.

Southeastern New Mexico is getting ready to get hit once again with another snow storm. There is the potential for locally heavy snowfall in some areas, with the current storm total snowfall amounts in the 2" - 6" range.

A re-enforcing surge of colder air Sunday night will inject low-level upslope moisture from the east, into the upper-level storm to our west. This will set the stage for locally heavy snowfall totals across the area, especially across the mountains. Our high temps on Monday are forecast to remain in the 30's.

Yet another Winter Storm may take aim on the state by the middle to end of next week. I will post additional information on this storm later today as conditions warrant.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Friday, January 6, 2012

Winter Storm #6 On Its Way To NM!

Weak Cold Front Headed South Today.

Blog updated at 10:20 PM MST.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.



Today will be a little warmer than yesterday with our afternoon highs expected to be mostly in the mid 60's, to near 70 across the southeastern plains of New Mexico. A weak cold front will move south through the local area by tonight...bringing slightly cooler temps for the weekend. Our high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday should range from about 55 - 60 degrees. A few spots may be a couple of degrees warmer. Sunny skies will prevail today into Sunday.

Winter Storm #6 Takes Aim On NM Late This Weekend.


We have been out of sync with most of the rest of the nation so far this winter. Six winter storms in about six weeks have hammered New Mexico. So far this winter I have measured 16.6" of snowfall here at my home in Carlsbad, New Mexico. That's just about double our seasonal average for the winter. Many parts of the nation are wondering whether or not winter will even arrive this year. It will, and with a vengeance in some area from about next week into at least the first week of February.

A Tale Of Four Models.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

(2+" Of Snowfall Possible SE NM By Monday Morning.)


Posted above, are four different computer model forecasts for our next inbound Winter Storm that is due to affect New Mexico, and the local area from Sunday night into Tuesday. Its normal for the computer forecast models to disagree with each others forecast solutions. Some winters are worse than others...and this winter has been terrible at times, concerning the flip flopping and the inconsistency of the models. This is due in a large part to the split flow pattern in the jet stream.

The top map (above) is last nights European run, and it decided to open up the closed low that it had been forecasting for the past several days, and move it a little further to the east by sunset Sunday. This doesn't make much sense this morning, given the fact that for nearly a week, it has insisted on dropping a strong cold closed upper-level low into SE AZ by sunset Sunday.

The middle map (above) is this mornings run of the NAM-WRF model forecast valid for Sunday at sunset. It depicts a broad closed upper-level low centered over south-central New Mexico by Sunday at sunset.

The third map (above) is this mornings run of the GFS model forecast valid for Sunday at sunset. It is very similar with the NAM-WRF model, but appears to be a little stronger, and a tad further to the south with the center of the closed upper-level low.

Finally the fourth map (above) is this mornings run of the Canadian (CMC) model forecast valid at sunset Sunday. It is forecasting a digging open trough of low pressure, that stretches southwest to northeast across southern Arizona and western New Mexico by sunset Sunday.

The trend so far this winter has been for the models to bring these winter storms too far to the east, too fast, and too weak. I think that this may be the case once again. The Canadian model may be on the right track with this next winter storms forecast of digging it further to the west, slowing its eastward progression down, and developing a colder, stronger and wetter storm than the ECMWF, NAM-WRF, or GFS models are forecasting.

If the Canadian model is to be believed, then there is the potential for this next inbound Winter Storm to slide just to the south of us, and not move into West Texas until around mid-day on Tuesday. It also forecasts the potential for 3" - 6" of snowfall across the lower elevations of the area.

As of this mornings local National Weather Service forecasts (click on the links at the top of this web page), we have a chance for a mixed bag of wintry precipitation across the southeastern plains of New Mexico and nearby areas. This could start as early as Sunday night and possibly last into Tuesday morning. Current forecasts indicate that we will see high temps in the upper 30's across the local area Monday.

Should the upper-level storm dig further to the west, slow down in its eastward ejection across the area, and be colder and stronger much as the Canadian model is forecasting, then our chances for accumulating snowfall would increase. Should the upper-level storm drop further to the east into New Mexico, and be a weaker, warmer, and drier storm than what is being forecast by the Canadian model, then we would have less of a chance for rain and or snowfall across the southeastern plains.

Pattern Change Next Week?


A change in the jet stream pattern that has dominated this winters weather thus far appears to be in the making. This is due to several factors including " sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)" in the very upper-levels of the atmosphere. Generally this occurs between 10 - 50 millibars.

When this occurs, the upper-level winds at this altitude produce a shift the position of the "Polar Vortex", which basically allows for a "Cross Polar Flow" of bitterly cold arctic air southward into the US. There are other factors involved and I don't have time to get into all of this, so please click on the link above, or this link, if you are interested in what is going to possibly cause this change in the nations weather in the coming weeks. For a more detailed explanation click on this link.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Tranquil Weather Into The Weekend...Storm Next Week.

Blog updated at 3:25 PM MST-

Seasonable Temps Into The Weekend.



Tranquil weather will continue today into the weekend across southeastern New Mexico. We should see our afternoon high temps climb up into the upper 50's to low 60's today. Tomorrow will be a tad warmer with readings in the mid 60's to near 70.

A weak cold front will slip into the area tomorrow evening. This front will knock our daytime highs back down to the upper 50's to low 60' Saturday. Sunday will see a slight rebound with readings in the mid-upper 60's.

Another Winter Storm Taking Aim On The State.



Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.
This morning it is looking more and more like yet another winter storm will be taking aim on the state by the end of this upcoming weekend, and continuing into at least next Tuesday. Its a little ironic that many sections of the nation are experiencing a very mild and uneventful winter so far this season, yet New Mexico is in line for the sixth winter storm in about as many weeks.

Once again there are significant differences between the US GFS model and the European (ECMWF) model. So far this winter, the European model (ECMWF- top map above) has out performed the GFS, so it continues to be a more favored model for this storm. It is trending towards a stronger, colder, and slower moving closed upper-level low.

An upper-level disturbance is forecast to drop southward out of the Great Basin and into the Four-Corners Region by Sunday morning. This disturbance is then forecast to continue dropping southward and into southeastern Arizona by early Sunday evening, where it is then forecast to become a closed upper-level low.

Last nights forecast run of the ECMWF model had the closed upper-level low located over West Texas, near the Van Horn area by 5 PM MST Monday. With the current model trends forecasting a deeper, slower, and further west storm with time...this may be a little too far to the east a little too soon. Last nights Canadian model (CMC) was forecasting an even colder storm than the ECMWF.

Forecast temperature soundings across southeastern New Mexico indicate that a rain/snow mix will be possible generally during the Monday through Tuesday time frame. If the upper-level storm to our west slows down then our chances for precipitation may last a little longer. It may be cold enough for accumulating snowfall across parts of the local area, and this of course would be particularly true for the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains.

Still Watching The Potential For An Invasion
Of Brutally Cold Arctic Air By Mid-Month.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Jan 12, 2012.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Jan 12, 2012.

Changes in the upper-air pattern over North America may be in the works starting in about a week. It appears that shift in the position of the Polar Vortex may about to under go a shift, which would allow the possibility of the brutally cold arctic air that has been bottled up across Alaska to surge southward into the US. McGrath, Alaska recorded a low temperature of -55F yesterday morning.

There is a lot of discussion among meteorologist, forecasters, and weather enthusiasts concerning this potential change. Should it come to pass...many areas east of the Rockies may have to endure several invasions of brutally cold arctic air beginning around the 10th of this month, and possibly continuing into the end of the month.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Is Our Next Winter Storm Shaping Up Early Next Week?

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.


Valid At 5 AM MST Mon Jan 9, 2012.

A quick look at this mornings European forecast model (above) shows a strong closed upper-level low dropping southward into southeastern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico by early Monday morning.

The GFS, and WRF-NMM models are now trending towards a westward digging closed low over Arizona as well. This is what the ECMWF was forecasting several days ago and looks similar to our Christmas storm.

So it appears that there is the potential for another winter storm impacting the area the first of next week. Enough cold air may also be available locally for at least a rain/snow mix across the southeastern plains and all snow in the mountains. Details are iffy yet so stay tuned.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Watching A Storm Early Next Week.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.




Since Christmas our weather has been quiet. It will stay this way into the upcoming weekend. Sunny skies will prevail across the area. Slightly cooler air will filter southward through the local area today behind a weak cold front. Our afternoon high temps for the most part will be in the upper 50's today. Tomorrow's highs should range from the upper 50's to the low-mid 60's across southeastern New Mexico. Friday will be a little warmer with highs in the mid 60's to near 70. Another shot of cooler air will arrive by Saturday which will knock out daytime highs back down into the 50's for the weekend.

Next Weeks Headache.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Nearly a week ago the European model (ECMWF) was forecasting a strong closed low to drop southward to the southwestern corner of New Mexico by the first of next week. At the time it was looking like another significant winter storm for the state...much like our Christmas storm. 

Since then it has wobbled all over the place with this storm in its forecasts. The US GFS model has been just as bad, back and forth with the placement of this next potential winter storm. The storm track has varied anywhere from southern Arizona to West Texas.

  Last nights forecasts are now trying to push the storm back to the west and impact our weather around the Monday into Tuesday time frame. Nothing is certain at this time concerning the track and strength of this next storm...so we will have to wait a couple more days for the models to settle down, before we have a clearer picture of what this next storm will or will not do. For now it appears that a much weaker and warmer storm will affect the area.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

2011 SE NM CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals.

Click On The Tables To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 10:00 AM MST.

Chaves County.


Eddy County.


Lea County.


Lincoln County.


Otero County.


Rainfall/Snowfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-



Quote- "State forestry officials outlined the damage from last year's fire season in an annual report: More than 1,000 fires burned more than 967,000 acres in New Mexico during the last fiscal year. Of the fires on state and private land, more than 80 percent were caused by people."

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

2011 SE New Mexico Rainfall Totals/Avg's.




I was glad to say goodbye to 2011. It was a year of extremes weather-wise here in southeastern New Mexico. After seeing a very wet summer and fall in 2010, the rain faucet just shut off in Oct, 2010. One of the driest and hottest periods, if not the driest and hottest for some areas, in the states history unfolded from October, 2010 into the summer of 2011. Wildfires, high winds, heat, and a historical drought dominated our spring and early summer headlines.

My 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avg's 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM-
(Averages Are Courtesy Of The Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Station.)

My 2011 Totals
1981 - 2010 Averages
1900 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .47"
Jan .41"
Feb .22"
Feb .54"
Feb .44"
Mar .00"
Mar .50"
Mar .48"
Apr .00"
Apr .62"
Apr .65"
May .00"
May 1.16"
May 1.19"
Jun .21"
Jun 1.52"
Jun 1.49"
Jul .89"
Jul 1.91"
Jul 1.86"
Aug .06"
Aug 1.92"
Aug 1.79"
Sep 2.12"
Sep 2.08"
Sep 2.14"
Oct .45"
Oct 1.15"
Oct 1.34"
Nov .05"
Nov .71"
Nov .58"
Dec 1.83"
Dec .66"
Dec .50"



Total 5.84"
Total 13.25"
Total 12.86"

Carlsbad Climate Co - Op 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avg's-

Carlsbad Climate 2011
1981 - 2010 Averages
1900 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .47"
Jan .41"
Feb .43"
Feb .54"
Feb .44"
Mar .00"
Mar .50"
Mar .48"
Apr .00"
Apr .62"
Apr .65"
May .00"
May 1.16"
May 1.19"
Jun ..04"
Jun 1.52"
Jun 1.49"
Jul .62"
Jul 1.91"
Jul 1.86"
Aug .50"
Aug 1.92"
Aug 1.79"
Sep 1.67"
Sep 2.08"
Sep 2.14"
Oct .27"
Oct 1.15"
Oct 1.34"
Nov .05"
Nov .71"
Nov .58"
Dec 1.48"
Dec .66"
Dec .50"



Total 5.06"
Total 13.25"
Total 12.86"

Carlsbad Airport 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avg's-

Carlsbad Airport
1981 - 2010 Averages
1942 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .38"
Jan .35"
Feb .00"
Feb .52"
Feb .41"
Mar .00"
Mar .52"
Mar .40"
Apr .00"
Apr .58"
Apr .47"
May .00"
May 1.45"
May 1.16"
Jun .01"
Jun 1.70"
Jun 1.22"
Jul .53"
Jul 1.83"
Jul 1.79"
Aug .14"
Aug 2.03"
Aug 1.90"
Sep 1.65"
Sep 2.32"
Sep 2.29"
Oct .27"
Oct 1.06"
Oct 1.07"
Nov .09"
Nov .65"
Nov .51"
Dec .90"
Dec .68"
Dec .47"



Total 3.59"
Total 13.72"
Total 12.04"

Artesia Climate 6S 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avg's-

Artesia Climate - 6S
1981 - 2010 Averages
1905 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .42"
Jan .39"
Feb .16"
Feb .43"
Feb .42"
Mar .22"
Mar .38"
Mar .43"
Apr .00"
Apr .61"
Apr .62"
May .00"
May 1.27"
May 1.21"
Jun .70"
Jun 1.60"
Jun 1.41"
Jul .53"
Jul 1.70"
Jul 1.75"
Aug .12"
Aug 1.95"
Aug 1.68"
Sep 2.13"
Sep 1.84"
Sep 1.80"
Oct .50"
Oct 1.20"
Oct 1.16"
Nov .00"
Nov .73"
Nov .53"
Dec 1.02"
Dec .62"
Dec .50"



Total 5.38"
Total 12.76"
Total 11.91"

Roswell Airport 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avgs-

Roswell Airport
1981 - 2010 Averages
1893 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .38"
Jan .41"
Feb .09"
Feb .39"
Feb .46"
Mar .00"
Mar .51"
Mar .55"
Apr .00"
Apr .61"
Apr .70"
May .00"
May 1.25"
May 1.10"
Jun .10"
Jun 1.73"
Jun 1.33"
Jul .83"
Jul 2.06"
Jul 1.98"
Aug .71"
Aug 1.96"
Aug 1.72"
Sep 1.31"
Sep 1.53"
Sep 1.76"
Oct .72"
Oct 1.23"
Oct 1.11"
Nov .03"
Nov .58"
Nov .57"
Dec 1.77"
Dec .63"
Dec .52"



Total 5.56"
Total 12.87"
Total 12.22"

Hobbs Climate 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avg's-

Hobbs Climate
1981 - 2010 Averages
1912 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .56"
Jan .46"
Feb .00"
Feb .77"
Feb .46"
Mar .00"
Mar .71"
Mar .55"
Apr .00"
Apr .92"
Apr .80"
May .00"
May 2.21"
May 1.94"
Jun .00"
Jun 1.89"
Jun 1.87"
Jul .00"
Jul 2.61"
Jul 2.17"
Aug .30"
Aug 2.06"
Aug 2.36"
Sep .01"
Sep 2.77"
Sep 2.55"
Oct .50"
Oct 1.35"
Oct 1.56"
Nov .03"
Nov .90"
Nov .55"
Dec 1.01"
Dec .70"
Dec .55"



Total 1.85"
Total 17.46"
Total 15.81"

Tatum Climate 2011 Rainfall Totals/Avg's-

Tatum Climate
1981 - 2010 Averages
1919 - 2011 Averages
Jan .00"
Jan .42"
Jan .42"
Feb .36"
Feb .41"
Feb .52"
Mar .00"
Mar .78"
Mar .64"
Apr .00"
Apr .62"
Apr .67"
May .00"
May 2.15"
May 1.96"
Jun .04"
Jun 2.01"
Jun 2.03"
Jul .89"
Jul 2.38"
Jul 2.46"
Aug .12"
Aug 2.34"
Aug 2.41"
Sep 3.05"
Sep 2.50"
Sep 2.37"
Oct .57"
Oct 1.59"
Oct 1.46"
Nov .07"
Nov .75"
Nov .58"
Dec 1.84"
Dec .61"
Dec .51"



Total 6.94"
Total 16.56"
Total 16.04"

Rainfall Data Is Courtesy Of-


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!