Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Warm-Windy-Dusty Today...Turning Colder Thursday.

Today.

Blog updated at 5:05 PM MST.









Yesterday afternoon's high temperatures were once again well above normal across the southeastern plains. Highs ranged from 86 here at my home in Carlsbad, and at the Carlsbad Airport, to 85 at the Roswell Airport, 84 at the 8-Mile Draw Raws, 83 at the Paduca Raws, 81 At the Artesia Airport, 80 at the Bat Draw Raws located at the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center, 78 w Miles SW of Tatum, and 77 at the Hobbs Airport.

We can expect to see similar readings once again today under mostly sunny skies, with most of us seeing our afternoon highs today in the low-mid 80's.

However, strong southwesterly winds are forecast to kick up across the area today, so areas of blowing dust will aggravate some of us this afternoon and evening. With southwesterly gusts of around 35-50 mph across the southeastern plains expected, the normally dust prone areas near freshly plowed farmlands, open fields, lots, and construction sites, may see sudden drops in the visibility down to zero with little to no advanced warning. Blinding clouds of dust may suddenly develop over and near these these areas. If you plan on traveling through of near these areas today please use extra caution.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains from 8 AM MST this morning through 7 PM MST this evening. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 35-45G60 mph. A High Wind Watch is in effect for Thursday. Southwesterly winds are forecast to shift around to the northeast at 35-45G60 mph.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the southern Sacramento Mountains (Otero County) from 11 AM MST this morning through 9 PM MST this evening. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 40-50G65 mph, some eastern slopes and mountain passes may experience gusts over 70 mph.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for Lincoln and Chaves Counties from 9 AM MST this morning through 7 PM MST this evening. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 25-35G50 mph.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas from 8 AM MST this morning through 8 PM MST this evening. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions are forecast to prevail across the area today so please, no outside burning.

Turning Colder Thursday - Friday.




A potent, and cold mid-upper level winter storm was located near Las Vegas, Nevada early this morning. As the cold front associated with this winter storm moved through the Pahrump, Nevada area yesterday evening, they clocked a wind gust to 85 mph. A gust to 72 mph was clocked at Bullhead City, Arizona with the frontal passage as well.

The models continue to struggle with the eventual track and speed of this next inbound winter storm to impact the state. It should continue to sag slowly southeastward towards the state today into tomorrow night. Last nights 06Z/11 PM MST run of the WRF-NMM model forecasts the the storm to be centered near Deming, NM by around noontime tomorrow. The GFS and ECMWF models want to split the upper-level low into two pieces Friday night, leaving a second closed upper-level low south of New Mexico late into the weekend. I'm not sure I buy this.

Anyway, a strong cold front will move into southeastern New Mexico later tonight. Strong gusty northerly winds (50 mph gusts, maybe higher in a few places) will accompany the frontal passage, along with the possibility of areas of blowing dust.

Much colder air is forecast to overspread the area tomorrow into Friday behind the front. Clovis is looking at a high temperature today of 75, 40 for tomorrow, and 42 for Friday. So, I still think that our temperatures here in the southeastern plains may end up struggling to get out of the 40's tomorrow and Friday, especially across the northern areas.

We still have a 10%-20% chance of seeing a few light rain and snow showers across the area Thursday into Friday evening. This storm is starved for moisture so at this time it does not appear that we will see significant precipitation totals from it. The Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains could see some light snowfall accumulations form the storm.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Potent Winter Storm On Its Way!

Today & Wednesday.

Blog updated at 4:45 PM MST.











I topped out here in Carlsbad yesterday with a high of 81, as did the Carlsbad Airport. The Roswell Airport reached 78, the Artesia Airport 77, and the Hobbs Airport 75. Normal (1981-2010) high temperatures for March 6th are 65 for Roswell, 67 for Artesia, Carlsbad, and Hobbs. Today and tomorrow's high temperature will remain some 15 to 20-degrees above normal, and by Thursday into the perhaps Saturday we will see our daily high temperatures running some 20-degrees or so below normal.

We are looking at another balmy spring day here in SE NM today. Under sunny skies our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to climb up into the low-mid 80's this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will increase later today to around 25G35 mph across parts of the southeastern plains.

Stronger southwesterly winds at around 25-30G40 mph are forecast to return to the southeastern plains tomorrow. Some of us may even see higher gusts. A widespread high wind and blowing dust event is currently forecast to occur over the southern half of the state tomorrow, and I expect to see similar conditions across southeastern New Mexico.

Potent Winter Storm Headed To NM!






A potent winter storm is currently digging southward in the Pacific Northwest and into northern California this morning. By sunrise tomorrow morning, it should be centered near Las Vegas, Nevada and in the process of closing off. By sunrise Thursday morning it should be centered near western New Mexico and eastern Arizona.

What happens to the track of this potent mid-upper level storm after Thursday morning is still up in the air. The models continue to struggle with its future track and speed. Some of the model forecasts keep the storm over the state into the weekend, while others kick it northeastward into Texas by Friday night.

A strong cold front will barrel into the southeastern plains Wednesday night. Much colder temperatures will overspread the area on Thursday and Friday. Current National Weather Service forecasts for Clovis have them struggling to reach 40-degrees for a high temperature on Thursday. So I am not going to be surprised if we end up being colder here in the southeastern plains than is currently being forecast.

A rain/snow mix remains a possibility here locally Thursday night and maybe Friday into Saturday morning as well. Areas of snow and blowing snow may cause problems across the northeastern and eastern plains of the state on Thursday, combined with wind chill values that are forecast to dip down into the single digits and teens. Accumulating snows are a possibility over the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains, and maybe even the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.

Hello winter....welcome back to the Land of Enchantment.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Spring-Like Temps Then Back To Winter?


Today - Wednesday .

Blog updated at 2:50 PM.



Spring-like temperatures and sunny skies will rule our weather into Wednesday. Most of us will see the upper 70's today, the low-mid 80's tomorrow and Wednesday.

I have noticed that a lot of the fruit trees are in the process of blooming out already this year, oops. I have been telling everyone that I did not think that we were done with winter yet, and we are fixing to find this out by the end of this week.

Wed Night - Friday.




Southern New Mexico.
Valid Wednesday.
Areas Of Blowing Dust Reducing
The Visibility Down To Less Than One Mile.
SW Winds 40-50G60+ MPH.

A potent late winter storm located in the Gulf of Alaska early this morning will dive rapidly southeastward today into Wednesday. Most of the models forecast this winter storm to be located over northern Arizona or the Four-Corners Region by Wednesday evening. They then forecast it to become either a strong closed mid-upper level low, or perhaps even a strong cut-off mid-upper level low, that will drift slowly eastward or southeastward over New Mexico into the beginning of the weekend.

As is usually the case, the exact track and speed of this storm will have a direct impact upon our local weather. At this time, it appears that accumulating snows will be possible across the northern, western, and central mountains, as well as the northeastern and eastern plains of the state. Precipitation should break out across the western and norther areas of the state beginning Wednesday and will continue into Friday night.

A cold front will work its way into the area Wednesday night, with a re-enforcing surge of colder air on Thursday. Its possible that many of us may not get out of the 40's Thursday, and maybe even on Friday depending upon the track of this storm. Our low temperatures are forecast to be close to freezing Thursday night into Friday morning.

We have a slight chance of seeing a mixture of light rain and snow showers here in the southeastern plains Thursday night into Friday morning. Should the potent mid-upper level storm sink further to the south, then our chances of seeing snow here in SE NM will increase.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Drought Update For SE NM.

Drought Status.







It remains horribly dry here in southeastern New Mexico as we roll into the beginning of the meteorological spring. We currently are experiencing an extreme to exceptional drought (see the top map) across the area. I don't see any significant relief coming anytime soon either.

 The drought started in October, 2010. From October 2010 through December 2010 I measured a whopping .13" of rainfall here at my  home in Carlsbad, New Mexico.

 I only measured 5.84" of rainfall and melted snow for all of 2011. Since January 1st of this year I have only measured .33" of rainfall. So, since October 1st, 2010, I have measured a grand total of 6.30" of rainfall. The 30-year normal (1981-2010) for Carlsbad, for this same time frame (Oct 2010 -Mar 2012) is 17.28" of rainfall.

 I am one of the more wetter stations here in the local area. Somme reporting stations have received only 4" - 5" of rainfall for this period. So in short, we are still lagging behind on average, some 10" -15" of rainfall, which we would normally would have received during the past 17 months. This amount will vary a little over the southeastern plains. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Another Day Of More Wind & Dust!

Today.

Blog updated at 7:50 AM MST.



Yesterday.


March roared in like a lion yesterday with more wind and blowing dust. The Artesia Airport reported a peak wind gust of 55 mph, the Carlsbad Airport 53 mph, Guadalupe Pass 53 mph, and the Roswell Airport 46 mph.

Areas of blowing dust once again plagued the southeastern plains, although the dust was not as widespread and as thick as Tuesday's event. High temperatures yesterday ranged from 80 at the Roswell Airport, to 78 at the Carlsbad Airport, 75 at the Hobbs Airport, and 73 at the Artesia Airport.

Given the fact that most of southeastern New Mexico has only received on average of 4" - 5" of rain since October 2010, some areas even less than this, we can expect to see more blowing dust events until the rains return, and the extreme drought that is plaguing the area is broken.

We will get a break from the wind and dust this weekend. Cooler temperatures are forecast for the southeastern plains tomorrow with most of us seeing our afternoon highs in the upper 50's to the low 60's. Sunday will see the start to a warming trend with the upper 60's to the low 70's.By Monday we will see the mid-upper 70's.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains until 5 PM MST this afternoon for southwesterly winds this morning of 35-45 mph with higher gusts, which will shift around to the west later today at around 35-50G65 mph.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Lincoln and southwestern Chaves Counties through 6 PM MST this evening for westerly winds of around 35-45G60 mph.

A Wind Advisory will be in effect for Eddy and Culberson Counties from 11 AM MST this morning through 11 PM MST this evening for westerly winds of around 30-40G55 mph, shifting to the northwest at around 25-35G50 mph this evening as a dry Pacific cold front moves through the area.

A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the Chaves County plains from 8 AM MST through 6 PM MST today for westerly winds of around 25-35G50 mph, shifting to the northwest later today.

A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 8 AM MST - 6 PM MST today for Otero County including the southern Sacramento Mountains for west-northwesterly winds at around 25-35G40-45 mph.

Once again areas of blowing dust will drop the visibility down to less than 1 mile in some locations. This will be especially true over and near those normally dust prone areas such as freshly plowed or open farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites. Sudden drops in the visibility down to zero can be expected in these locations with little to no advanced warning.

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of the area from 8 AM MST through 8 PM MST this evening. Another day of Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions due to the expected high winds, the continuing extreme drought conditions, and the very low relative humidity values forecast for today. You know the drill so please refrain from any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame. Any wildland fire that may accidentally get started will have the potential to rapidly spread and grow in today's 50+ mph wind gusts.

Two Week Outlook.

Long-range forecasts keep us warm and dry over the next 10-days to two weeks with not much hope of significant precipitation across the southeastern New Mexico plains. Our next potential wind and dust event may occur by the middle of next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

More Wind & Dust!

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.





A High Wind Warning is effect for the Guadalupe Mtn's from 11 AM MST this morning through 5 PM MST Friday. Southwest winds are forecast to increase to 30-50G70 mph. Difficult driving conditions will likely be encountered due to these dangerously high cross winds so exercise caution when traveling through the mountains.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for Lincoln County and southwestern Chaves County from 11 AM MST this morning through 6 PM MST Friday evening. Westerly winds are forecast to increase to 30-40G60 mph. Difficult driving conditions will likely be encountered due to these dangerously high cross winds so exercise caution when traveling through the mountains.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern Sacramento Mtn's from 11 AM MST this morning through 10 PM MST this evening. Southwest-west winds are forecast to increase to 25-35G45 mph.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eddy and Culberson Counties from 11 AM MST this morning through 11 PM MST this evening. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 30-40G55 mph.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Chaves County plains from 11 AM MST this morning through 6 PM MST this evening. Southwest-west winds are forecast to increase to 25-35G50 mph.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the area today, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for tomorrow. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions are anticipated today into tomorrow due to the high winds and extremely dry conditions. Please refrain from any type of outdoor activity today and tomorrow that involves the use of sparks or flame!

Today marks the meteorological beginning of spring and right on cue, mother nature will kick it off with lots of wind and blowing dust. Our windy season has started early this year and I just hope this dose not mean that the west wind is going to blow from now on into the Fourth of July. Sometimes this happens in La Nina springs. March will arrive as a lion this year with a very windy and dusty day forecast for southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.

We are looking at a couple of windy days today and tomorrow. A dry Pacific cold front will enter SE NM later tonight, and much cooler air will overspread the area behind the front. Ahead of the front we can expect to see our afternoon high temps rise up into the low-mid 80's. Friday's highs are forecast to be in the low-mid 60's, and Saturday's highs will be in the upper 50's to low 60's. Sunday will see the start of a warming trend with highs in the low 70's.

Areas of blowing dust will once again plaque southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas today, and maybe again tomorrow. Southeastern New Mexico has only received 4" - 5" of rainfall since October 2010. Its extremely dry out there, so it doe not take a lot of wind to kick up the dust.

Watch out for those more dust prone locations such as freshly plowed farmlands, open and exposed lots, fields, and construction sites. The visibility will suddenly drop down to near zero without any advanced warning in these areas today in the higher wind gusts. Travel in and near these areas could become extremely dangerous today! Some road closures may be possible today due to the high winds and blowing dust in a few areas.

Remember you can view my past blogs by visiting the "Blog Archive Link" in the lower right hand sidebar.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.