Welcome To The Southeastern New Mexico Weather Web Page!

Monday Is Going To Be Windy!

2012-02-18T18:36:00.002-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Surface Map Forecast At 5 AM MST Mon Feb 20, 2012.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 11 AM MST Mon Feb 20, 2012.

Skies were slow to clear until late this afternoon across the area, which resulted in seasonably cool afternoon high temperatures. Readings ranged from 56 at the Carlsbad Airport to 55 at the Paduca Raws, 54 at the 8-Mile Draw Raws, 52 at the Roswell Airport, and 50 at the Artesia Airport.

Areas of fog are forecast to develop over parts of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas later tonight and will persists into tomorrow morning.

Sunday will be sunny and much warmer with highs in the upper 60's to the low 70's. Our next weather maker will arrive in the form of a mid-level short wave trough of low pressure, which is forecast to swing across northern New Mexico on Monday.

This storm will generate high winds across the area. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains for Monday. Westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speed of around 35-55 mph with gusts near 70 mph.

Southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of around 30-40 mph with gusts to 45-55 mph across the lower elevations of southeastern New Mexico on Monday. Localized areas of blowing dust may occur especially near exposed or freshly plowed or open farmland, lots, and construction sites.

Our afternoon high temperatures on Monday will in the upper 60's to near 70. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the local area. Monday will not be a good day for any type of outdoor activity that involves sparks or flame.

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Changes To My Web Page.

2012-02-18T16:42:00.000-07:00

I am always looking for new ways to update my web page. So that those of you who stop by and visit, will always have the latest updated information concerning our local weather. I hope you like the changes I have made today. Please feel free to comment on these changes below. Thanks for stopping by and visiting.

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Something Wet In My Rain Gauge This Morning.

2012-02-17T08:18:00.002-07:00

Click On The Maps/Images To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 10:00 AM MST.

Downtown Ruidoso, NM @ 6:40 AM MST This Morning.

Downtown Cloudcroft, NM @ 6:41 AM MST This Morning.

New Mexico 24-Hr Rainfall Totals As Of 6 AM MST.

Southeast New Mexico Rainfall Totals As Of 6 AM MST.

SE New Mexico CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals @ 7 AM MST.

Overcast skies cover the area this morning with areas of fog and light drizzle. At 7 AM MST temperatures ranged from 37F in Tatum, Hobbs, to Artesia, to 39F at Roswell and 41F in Carlsbad. Light rain fell over the area overnight and some of the heavier totals are listed below.

24-Hr Rainfall Totals As Of 7 AM MST-

0.9 Miles NE Lakewood .38"
4.1 Miles NNE Roswell .27"

0.3 Mile SSW Roswell .22"

West Roswell .22"

0.4 Mile ESE Cloudcroft .21"
15.5 Miles NW Carlsbad .20"
17.1 Miles NW Carlsbad .20"
15.5 Miles S Artesia .20"

Roswell Airport ASOS .20"

2.3 Miles S Cloudcroft .18"

Holloman AFB - Alamogordo .17"

10 Miles ESE Hagerman .17"

Carrizozo Airport HCN .16"

4.8 Miles SSE Artesia - Atoka .15"

Hope Climate .15"

Queen Raws .15"

1.8 Miles SW Cloudcroft .14"

8-Mile Draw Raws .14"

Artesia Airport HCN .13"

Rio Hondo Reservoir .12"

Dark Canyon 20 Miles SW Carlsbad .12"

2 SW Tatum .10"

Roswell Climate .09"

6.8 Miles NW Downtown Carlsbad .09"

Arteisa Airport AWOS .09"

Caprock Raws .08"

0.8 Mile SE High Rolls .08"

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS .06"

2.1 Miles NNW Downtown Carlsbad .04"

2.6 Miles NNW Downtown Carlsbad .03"

Carlsbad Airport ASOS .02"

2.0 N Downtown Carlsbad .02"

Bat Draw Raws .01"

Snowfall Totals As Of 7 AM MST-

Ski Apace 3.0"

0.4 Mile ESE Cloudcroft 1.5"

0.07 Mile N Sunspot 1.3"

1.8 Miles SW Cloudcroft 1.2"

4.9 Miles NE Cloudcroft 1.1"

2.3 Miles S Cloudcroft 1.0"

0.8 Mile SE High Rolls .9"

Rainfall & Snowfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-

CoCoRaHS

Ski Apache

MesoWest Weather

New Mexico Rosa Reports

Today.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

We have a 40% - 60% chance of seeing scattered rain showers and perhaps a few t-storms today. Our skies will be overcast for most of the day with our afternoon high temperatures forecast to range from 48 in Roswell and Hobbs, to 51 in Artesia and 54 in Carlsbad. The rain will end by late tonight with clearing skies. I would suspect that there may be areas of fog tomorrow morning given the recent light rain over the area.

For the rest of the weekend we can expect to see mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures. Our highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-upper 50's, and Sunday should see at least the mid-upper 60's.

Windy Monday?

GFS 500 MB Forecast @ 5 PM MST Mon Feb 20, 2012.

Our next weather maker will arrive by Monday. Current model forecasts track this storm to our north so Monday potentially looks like a windy day across SE NM and W TX. We have been lucky so far this winter and haven't had a lot of high wind events. Since November 1st I have recorded 2.21" of rainfall here at my home in Carlsbad, and 17.5" of snowfall. Its been a wet winter, and hopefully this will carry over into the spring.

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Next Winter Storm Inbound With Rain & Snow.

2012-02-16T08:01:00.002-07:00

Today.

Blog updated at 8:08 PM MST.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Mid and high level clouds will continue to increase today ahead of a stout mid-upper level storm that is located over southern California this morning. Our afternoon highs this afternoon will range from 55-60 across the southeastern plains.

Tonight Into Saturday.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST This Morning.

Water Vapor Satellite Image At 7:15 AM MST This Morning.

NWS HPC 5-Day Precipitation Forecast.

(Today - Next Tuesday.)

Special Web Briefing From NWS Albuquerque.

Update- The Winter Storm Watch for Lincoln County has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, which will be in effect from 9 PM tonight through 6 PM MST Friday evening. Snowfall totals of 5" - 10" are forecast above 7,500', with the snow level lowering to 6,500' late tonight into Friday.

The Winter Storm Watch for Otero County has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, which will go into effect from 6 PM tonight through midnight Friday night. New snowfall totals of 7" - 14" are forecast above about 6,500' to 7,000'.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sandia/Manzano Mountains, the Central Highlands, Estancia Valley, and parts of the eastern plains including De Baca, Guadalupe, and Quay counties, and will be in effect from 1 AM through 6 PM MST Friday.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase with time throughout tonight across southeastern New Mexico.

------------------------------------------

Clouds will continue to thicken tonight as the storm to our west deepens and digs a little further to the south. This storm continues to give the models fits concerning its track and speed over the next couple of days. The general consensus is that it will dig into the northern Baja, Region later tonight, and then begin a slowly eastward drift through Saturday morning.

Scattered rain showers are forecast to break out over the area tonight and continue into Friday. Areas of a steady cold rain may develop with the potential of around .50" for most locations. Some spots could even pick up greater amounts by the time this storm is all said and done. Our chances for seeing measurable rainfall have been raised to 50% - 70% from tonight into Friday.

Rain is forecast to mix with snow later Friday night into early Saturday morning across the lower elevations of SE NM. At this time there does not appear to be a significant threat for accumulating snowfall across most of the lower elevations of the area. However, this may potentially change given the uncertainties within the computer forecast models concerning this next winter storm that is approaching the local area.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Sacramento Mountains including the Ruidoso area for later this evening into Friday afternoon. Heavy snow is forecast with 4" forecast for elevations below 7,500', and 8"+ above 7,500'

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the southern Sacramento Mountains including the Cloudcroft, Mayhill, Mountain Park/High Rolls, Sacramento/Weed, Timberon/Pinon areas for later this evening through Friday evening. Heavy snow is forecast with 7" - 12" forecast above 6,500' - 7,000'.

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Another Breezy Day.

2012-02-15T06:44:00.004-07:00

Today Into Friday.

Blog updated at 2:40 PM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

High Wind Warning!

Guadalupe Mtn's

Remains In Effect Until 2 PM MST.

West 35-45G60 MPH.

It is a tad bit windy in the Guadalupe mountains early this morning. At 6 AM MST westerly winds were gusting to 55 mph at the Bowl Raws located just north of Guadalupe Peak, 54 mph at the Pinery Raws in Pine Springs, and 51 mph at Guadalupe Pass.

Another mostly sunny and breezy day is anticipated today across the southeastern plains. Westerly winds will kick up to around 20-25G35 mph with our afternoon highs in the low 60.s.

A cold front will move into the area tomorrow morning with slightly cooler air overspreading the area. Our afternoon highs will range from 55-60 tomorrow. Friday's highs should range from 50-55.

Strong Late Winter Storm Thu - Sat?

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 2 AM MST.

Our current storm located over northwestern New Mexico is forecast to move eastward and out of the state by this afternoon. It surprised some folks in the Albuquerque area overnight with some impressive snowfall totals which include: 8" in Sedellio east of Albuquerque, and 7" 8 miles ENE of Albuquerque. For additional totals please visit this link.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Today.

Our next winter storm to affect the state and local area was located over northern California early this morning. It is forecast to continue digging to the south today and should be located over southern California by sunset this evening.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 5 AM MST Friday.

The WRF-NMM model is the slowest and strongest with this next winter storm. It has a strong closed upper-level low located just south of Yuma, Arizona in northwestern Mexico by sunrise Friday morning.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 11 AM MST Saturday.

In fact the WRF-NMM drags the strong closed upper-level low slowly eastward across northern Mexico, just to our south through midday on Saturday.This would be a good position for the storm to produce widespread precipitation across the area..

If this forecast holds true then we will see some decent rain and snowfall totals across the local area.Scattered rain showers are expected to break out Thursday night into Friday. A rain/snow mix may even be possible Friday night into Saturday morning, with the mountains and parts of the lower elevations potentially seeing some accumulating snowfall.

Last nights runs of the GFS model opens the low up into a trough of low pressure and sweeps it eastward faster than the ECMWF or WRF-NMM models. As has been the case all winter long we will have to have wait and see which model has the best handle on this storm.

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Here's What I Really Do!

2012-02-14T11:12:00.002-07:00

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Warm & Breezy This Valentines Day.

2012-02-14T08:00:00.001-07:00

Today & Wednesday.

Blog updated at 9:10 AM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

High Wind Watch!

Guadalupe Mtn's

Late Tonight - Wednesday Afternoon.

West Winds 35-45G60 MPH.

Wind Advisory!

Lincoln County.

11 AM MST Today - 5 AM MST Wednesday.

SW-W Winds 25-35G50 MPH.

Wind Advisory!
Otero County.
11 AM MST Today - 7 PM MST This Evening.
SW-W Winds 25-35G45 MPH.

2012 SE NM & W TX Skywarn Spotter
Training Class Schedule.

An upper-level trough of low pressure located over Arizona and Utah this morning is forecast to swing across northern New Mexico later today into tomorrow morning. The main impact that this next system will have on SE NM will be to kick our our winds today and tomorrow.

Mostly sunny are forecast today and tomorrow. Our afternoon highs today will range from the upper 60's to the low 70's. Southwesterly winds will kick up to around 15-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.

Similar conditions are forecast for Wednesday with our afternoon highs ranging from the low-mid 60's. Wednesday will be another breezy to windy day across the area as the upper-level storm to our north moves east of the state.

Late Week Winter Storm?

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 16, 2012.

NWS HPC 5-Day Total Precipitation Forecast.

A stronger upper-level storm is forecast to form a closed low, or perhaps even a cutoff upper-low over the Baja Region late this week. This storm has the potential to produce more widespread rain and snow across the state late this week into the weekend.

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Warmer Today.

2012-02-13T05:51:00.007-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 9:05 AM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Update at 9:05 AM MST-

According to the New Mexico Roads Website US Highway 82 has been closed east of Artesia, NM, between mile markers 147-150 at 8:10 AM MST this morning, due to numerous accidents.

Dense Fog Advisory!

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's until 11 AM MST this morning. The visibility will be reduced to less than 1/4 of a mile at times this morning in areas of dense fog, and dense freezing fog.

Areas of dense freezing fog cover parts of SE NM and W TX early this morning. At 5:45 AM MST the visibility at the Carlsbad Airport was 1/2 of a mile in freezing fog with a temp of 30, the Artesia Airport had 1/4 of a mile visibility with a temp of 27, and the Roswell Airport had 11/4 mile visibility with freezing fog and a temp of 28. There may be some slick spots on some of our local roadways so please drive carefully.

Areas of dense freezing fog will prevail through 8:30 AM MST this morning across SE NM, then conditions are forecast to improve. Our skies will clear later this morning and a significant warmup will commence with afternoon high temperatures ranging from 60 to the low 60's across the southeastern plains.

Yesterday's storm was pretty much a bust for most of Chaves and Eddy Counties. At times throughout the day a few light rain showers and a few light showers of sleet fell, but as far as I know no significant accumulations occurred. I managed to pick up .01" with just a trace of sleet.

US Highway 70 was closed east of Las Cruces due to icy conditions and numerous accidents due to the ice. Freezing rain, sleet and snow also caused some problems across Lea County yesterday afternoon and evening with multiple accidents being reported. The same was the case yesterday morning in Albuquerque along I-40.

Warm & Breezy Week Ahead.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 AM MST Tue Feb 14, 2012.

As one storm departs the area today, a second storm will be fast approaching. A closed upper-level low is forecast to dive into northwestern Arizona by sunrise tomorrow morning, then slide eastward across northern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle by Wednesday morning. This storm should move too far to the north to produce anything more than breezy conditions on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds will kick up to around 15-25 mph with gusts to up around 35 mph Tuesday afternoon. Our high temps are forecast to climb up into the mid-upper 60's Tuesday and Wednesday.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 AM MST Fri Feb 17, 2012.

A third upper-level storm is forecast to drop southward into northern Mexico by Friday. This storm has a better chance of producing a few lowland rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, along with snow across the higher elevations of the mountains. Our high temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60's Thursday and Friday.

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Winter Has Returned.

2012-02-12T08:55:00.005-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 1:08 PM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST.

Winter Weather Advisory!

Otero-Hudsepth-Chaves-Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's.

And The Permian Basin & South Plains Of W TX.

A Combination Of Freezing Rain-Sleet-Snow.

Ice & Freezing Rain Accumulations Of Up To 1/4".

1" - 3" Of Snow Accumulations.

Valid Until 11 PM MST Tonight.

Update At 12:00 Noon.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Midland-

Sleet and snow to change over to freezing rain

across the area tonight!

Light freezing rain is starting to fall here at my home in Carlsbad at 8:45 AM this morning. Light sleet fell for a few minutes around 4 AM this morning. A spotter report out of the Atoka and Artesia areas at 7:48 AM indicated that light sleet was falling there with some light accumulations on the back of vehicles.

An amateur radio operator in Clovis is reporting heavy snow falling now with the visibility down to one block, with 1/2" on the ground. Light snow is being reported in Roswell. Numerous accidents are being reported up and down I-40 in and around the Albuquerque area, and eastward due to black ice.

A wintry mixed mess of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is forecast to continue across the area until around midnight tonight. A few thunderstorms may also occur, which would potentially produce heavy bursts of snow and sleet. Snowfall accumulations of 1" - 3" is currently forecast for the area, but locally heavier totals may occur. The upper level trough responsible for this mess is still centered well to our west, so the worst of the weather is expected to occur later today and tonight.

Local roadways could easily become extremely slick, icy, and impossible to travel upon in some areas. Its possible that we could see some road closures later today or tonight. For the latest road conditions please visit these sites; New Mexico Roads, Texas Roads.

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Winter Storm Watch In Effect For Sunday!

2012-02-11T08:44:00.006-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 8:00 PM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Surface Map Forecast At 5 PM MST Today.

Winter Weather Advisory!

Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's

And Much Of The Permian Basin.

Valid From 5 AM - 11 PM MSTSunday.

Wintry Mix Of Sleet & Snow.
Sleet Accumulations Of 1/4".

Snowfall Totals Of 1" - 3".

Dangerous Driving Conditions!

High Wind Warning!

Guadalupe Mtn's

Valid 5 PM This Aftn - 5 AM MST Sunday.

NE Winds 35 - 45G60 MPH.

Winter Weather Advisory!

Chaves - Roosevelt - Curry Co's

Valid From 5 AM - 11 PM MST Sunday.

Freezing Rain - Sleet - 1" - 3" Of Snow.

Winter Weather Advisory!

Alamogordo - Dell City - Cloudcroft Areas.

Valid From 5 AM - 8 PM MST Sunday.

Freezing Rain & Sleet Lower Elevations.

3" - 5" Of Snow In The Mountains - Isolated Heavier Totals.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Albuquerque.
Areas Of Dense Freezing Fog NE-E-SE NM Tonight.
Includes The Clovis-Portales, Ruidoso, Roswell Areas.
Pockets Of Black Ice On Roadways.

Special Weather Statement From NWS El Paso.

Special Web Briefing From NWS El Paso.

Special Web Briefing From NWS Lubbock.

Today's Outlook-

Surface Temperature Map At 8 AM MST This Morning.

As of 8 AM this morning, arctic air continues to filter southward and westward into southeastern New Mexico. Temperatures ranged from 14F in Clayton with a wind chill of 3F, to 21F in Tucumcari with a wind chill of 7F, 22F in Clovis with a wind chill of 10F, 22F in Tatum with a wind chill of 7F, 25F in Hobbs with a wind chill of 11F, 30F in Roswell, 32F in Artesia, and 33F in Carlsbad. Areas of light snow, and freezing fog blanket much of northeastern and eastern New Mexico. A Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM this morning for these areas.

Arctic air will continue to funnel into the local area especially late this afternoon into tonight. Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from 36 in Hobbs, 46 in Carlsbad, 48 in Artesia, and 48 in Roswell. The arctic air will deepen across the area tonight sending our low temperatures down into teens and low 20's. With northeasterly to easterly winds at around 10-15 mph expected tonight, wind chill values will dip down to the -2F to 10F range.

Sunday's Outlook-

WRF-NMM 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST This Monring.

Update At 3:10 PM MST This Afternoon- Although it appears that the threat for freezing rain may have diminished over parts of SE NM, specifically Eddy and Lea Counties, there will still be areas of freezing rain across parts of West Texas and southern New Mexico. I am not 100% convinced that we still won't see pockets of freezing rain mixing in with the sleet and snow here in Eddy and Lea Counties. This storm is becoming more complicated to try and figure out with time...so I think its prudent to be aware of any changes in our local forecasts.

Conditions are still forecast to deteriorate across the area later tonight. A layer of sleet may first cover the ground late tonight, or early tomorrow morning, then 1" - 3" of snow is forecast to fall on top of that throughout the day tomorrow. If pockets of freezing rain do break out locally, then our roads will become even more dangerous that what is currently expected.

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An upper-level storm is located along the central California coast this morning. This storm is forecast to drop southeastward into the northern Baja, California Region by sunrise tomorrow morning. The models then swing it eastward into western New Mexico by sunset tomorrow, and out of the state by around sunrise Monday morning.

I am just a tad leery of this given the history and storm tracks of our previous winter storms this winter. The trend has been for the models to not drop these winter storms far enough to the south, and then sweeping them eastward too fast. This may not be the case with this storm, but I will not be one surprised if this it does not dig further south into northern Mexico, and not exiting the area as soon as what is currently being forecast. If this ends up being the case then our wintry weather will hang around later than forecast, and could last into Monday. We will see.

A mix of sleet, and snow is forecast to break out across the area late tonight and continue into Sunday evening. There is also the remote possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two across the area. The threat for freezing rain across the local area appears to have diminished according to the latest computer model forecast runs. Sleet may accumulate in some areas up to 1/4". To complicate matters widespread snowfall totals of around 1" - 3".

Needless to say our local roadways will turn into skating rinks if this forecast pans out across the area. I would suspect that there would also be some areas of freezing fog which contribute to the dangerous driving conditions anticipated across the area. Sunday may be one of those days that if you absolutely do not have to travel, then it might be wise to just kick back at home and enjoy our latest bout with winter. There will be the possibility of some road closures across SE NM and W TX. For the latest road conditions please visit these sites; New Mexico Roads, Texas Roads.

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Storm #1 Departs - #2 On The Way For The Weekend.

2012-02-10T07:08:00.005-07:00

Today's Outlook.

Blog updated at 6:30 PM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

We can expect sunny skies today along with afternoon high temps generally ranging from 55 - 60 across most of southeastern New Mexico. Yesterday's weak upper-level storm produced a few sprinkles in Artesia, while the Roswell Airport managed to squeeze out .01" of rainfall. Tatum recorded .02" and the 8-Mile Draw Raws located northeast of Roswell measured .01".

Stormy & Colder This Weekend.

From NWS Midland-

"AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER BAJA/CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINED SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WHILE MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF I-10. AREAS OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS AREA.

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN...PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS AREA AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA FROM 6 AM CST TO 6 PM CST ON SUNDAY. ALSO DUE TO STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM 5 PM MST SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY."

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Midland.

Winter Storm Watch!
Lea & Culberson Co's.
Valid For Sunday.
2" - 5" Of Snowfall.
Sleet & Freezing Rain Possible.
Lesser Amounts For Eddy County.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Albuquerque.

A lot of people are asking me if winter is over for SE NM and my answer has been no. Old man winter and mother nature are going to team up once again, and send a couple of winter storms our way over the next week, maybe even beyond that.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Sat Feb 11, 2012.

Winter storm #2 is forecast to drop southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into southern California by sunset Saturday. It will then crawl eastward across New Mexico over the remainder of the weekend. This one will have to be watched to see if it digs a little further to the south than current model trends indicate.

WRF-NMM 850 MB Forecast At 11 AM MST Sat Feb 11, 2012.

Surface Forecast Map Valid At 5 AM MST Sat Feb 11, 2012.

As the upper-level storm approaches the area from the northwest on Saturday, a modified arctic cold front is forecast to backdoor into eastern and southeastern New Mexico. Our afternoon high temperatures will be tricky Saturday due to the timing of the arrival of the front.

Current National Weather Service forecasts indicate our high temperatures will range from 37 in Hobbs, 48 in Artesia, 49 in Carlsbad, and 56 in Roswell Saturday afternoon. If the front is a little slower in arriving than forecast then our temps will be warmer than forecast.

A colder airmass will overspread the area Saturday night into Sunday with our afternoon highs ranging from 35 - 50 across the area. A wintry mix of light rain, light freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible across SE NM Saturday night into Sunday evening.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Wed Feb 16, 2012.

Winter Storm #3 is slated to impact the state by the middle of next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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A Chance For Rain Today.

2012-02-09T07:58:00.004-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 4:05 PM MST.

Cannon AFB Doppler Radar Snapshot At 7:00 AM MST.

Same Image Using The "Winterize Mode."

A broken line of rain showers, with areas of embedded light freezing rain, and a few snow showers, stretches across the central mountains of New Mexico, northeastward to the Texas Panhandle at sunrise this morning. This area of showers is moving off to the southeast as an upper-level short wave trough of low pressure moves southeastward over northern New Mexico.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Clouds will be on the increase across southeastern New Mexico today as a short wave trough of low pressure sweeps southeastward across the state. The upper-level low located over the southern tip of Baja, California, is too far to our south to have much of an effect on our local weather. Scattered rain showers will continue to move southeastward into the local area throughout the day today.

Its possible that an isolated thunderstorm or two may also occur. Our chances for measurable rainfall across the southeastern plains is around 20% - 30% today, except for the Roswell area which has a 50% chance of seeing rain. Our chances of rain dwindle to 20% by tonight.

Most of us will see afternoon high temps in the 50's today. Snow is forecast to fall across the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains today into this evening. 1" - 2" will be possible generally above 7,000'.

Weekend Storm.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Yet another upper-level storm is forecast to move into the state by late in this upcoming weekend. A modified arctic cold front is forecast to arrive in SE NM Saturday night with much colder air overspreading the area into Sunday. If the models are correct, then we will have a chance of seeing a rain, snow, and sleet mix Saturday and Sunday, with our high temperatures only in the 40's on Sunday. Accumulating snows could fall in the mountains.

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Another Cool Day...Rain & Snow Showers Thu-Fri.

2012-02-08T06:54:00.003-07:00

Today's Outlook.

Blog updated at 12:40 PM MST

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Today's weather will be characterized by partly cloudy skies and cool temps across SE NM. Our afternoon highs are generally forecast to range from 45 - 50. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as two upper-level storms begin to impact the area.

Two Upper-Level Storms Impact Our Weather.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Fcst At 11 AM MST Thu Feb 9, 2012.

NWS HPC 5-Day Precipitation Forecast.

(Valid Today - Next Monday.)

Two upper-level storms will phase together tomorrow and Friday and bring a chance of rain and snow showers to our area. A cutoff upper-level low at the 500 millibar, or roughly about the 18,000' Mean Sea Level, will continue to drop southward to just south of the southern tip of Baja, California by noontime tomorrow. Meanwhile a short wave trough of low pressure at the 500 millibar level, will swing southeastward across the state and phase, or combine with the cutoff low located way off to our south tomorrow afternoon.

A few light rain showers may break out over parts of the area later tonight, and these will increase in coverage Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Its possible that a light mix of rain and snow showers may dot the northern areas late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Scattered rain showers may change over to and mix with light snow showers over parts of SE NM late Thursday night into early Friday morning. At this time accumulating snowfall is not anticipated across the local area.

There is a slight chance that a few scattered rain and snow showers will break out over the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains later today and tonight. These will increase in coverage Thursday into Friday. Snow level will generally remain above 7,000' MSL during the daytime hours tomorrow and Friday. Its possible that the higher elevations of the mountains above 7,000' could see up to 3" of snow by Friday.

Some of the models are hinting at yet another upper-level storm along with a shot of colder air for the weekend, with yet another storm arriving by the middle of next week.

February 8, 1933.

The coldest weather event in the known history of southeastern New Mexico occurred. Thermometers fell to levels that today are still hard to believe for this part of the country!

Seminole, Texas set a new all time state record low temperature of -23 on February 8th. Morgan, Wyoming recorded a new all time state record low temperature of -66 on February 9th. Seneca, Oregon recorded a new all time record low for the state with -54 on February 10th.

Roswell recorded 4.0" of snow on February 7th, Artesia measured 3.5", and Carlsbad measured2.0" in town, and at the airport 7.0" was measured on the 7th. A historically bitterly cold arctic airmass worked its way southward into southeastern New Mexico, after sending thermometers plummeting across much of the western U.S.A. that eventful week.

High/Low Temps Recorded On February 8th, 1933

Corona Climate High 15 Low -12

Clovis Climate High 12 Low -11

Portales Climate High 3 Low -28

Richland Climate (S Of Portales) High 18 Low -29

Roswell Climate High 10 Low -24

Hagerman Climate High 10 Low -34

Capitan Climate High 12 Low -4

Fort Stanton Climate NE Ruidoso High 15 Low -18 (7th)

Cloudcroft Climate High 19 Low -6

Artesia Climate High 7 Low -35

Hope Climate High 1 Low -22

Carlsbad Climate (City) High 20 Low -17

Carlsbad Airport High 20 Low -10

Tatum Climate High 22 Low -32

Lovington Climate High 19 Low -27

Pearl Climate 15 W Hobbs High 9 Low -30

Seminole, TX Climate High 26 Low -23

Lamesa, TX Low -12

Lubbock, TX Climate High 18 Low -17

Midland, TX Climate Low -11

The following quotes were taken from an article printed in the Artesia Advocate on Thursday, February 9th, 1933-

“The official temperature registered at the government station here was thirty-five below zero, which reading checked with other thermometers in Artesia regarded as accurate.

A reading of thirty below was registered by the thermometer at the Continental Refinery (Navajo Refinery today) about 4:00 o’clock Wednesday morning. And the fact that the Continental thermometer was housed in a building probably explains the differences in the readings.

Other thermometers over town registered from 30 to 43 degrees below zero. The thermometer registered six and one half degrees above zero Tuesday morning at the beginning of the storm, the temperature dropped to zero during the day.”

On February 13, 1905, Roswell plummeted to -29 to set their all time record low.

Temperature Data Is Courtesy Of-

NCDC
Artesia Daily Press
Midland NWS Climate Page
Albuquerque NWS Climate Page
Western Regional Climate Center

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Continued Seasonably Cool Today & Wednesday.

2012-02-07T07:18:00.000-07:00

Today's Outlooks.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Not much has changed in the thinking as far as our weather is concerned today and tomorrow. It will be seasonably chilly with our afternoon highs forecast to mostly be in the low-mid 50's today. Tomorrow will be just a tad cooler with highs in the upper 40's to low 50's. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with a few mid and high level clouds drifting across the area at times.

Thursday & Friday.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM Thu Feb 9, 2012.

Our next shot at lowland rain showers and higher mountain snow showers will come Thursday and Friday. A cutoff upper-level storm is forecast to slide just a little too far to the south of us to give us very much precipitation. There will be a few scattered showers out there but overall the brunt of the storms precipitation should stay well to our south.

A few snow showers will break out over the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains tomorrow night into Friday, with the best chances for light accumulations generally remaining above about 8,000'. At this time it does not appear that significant snowfall will occur.

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Partly Cloudy & Cool Today.

2012-02-06T06:47:00.001-07:00

Today & Tonight.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

A blanket of low clouds covers parts of southeastern New Mexico early this morning. Party cloud skies are anticipated across the area today with our afternoon high temperatures climbing up into the mid 50's. Today's readings will be about 10-degrees warmer than yesterday's.

Cold Front Arrives Tuesday Morning.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 2 AM MST This Morning.

A closed upper-level low remains parked over western Colorado early this morning. It is forecast to wobble slowly eastward and open up into Tuesday. As this storm departs the area to our north, it will send a cold front southward into southeastern New Mexico tomorrow morning.

Surface Map Forecast At 5 AM MST Tue Feb 7, 2012.

A re-enforcing shot of cool air will accompany a cold front as it moves southward through the area tomorrow morning. Under mostly sunny skies our afternoon highs on Tuesday will range from 50 - 55. Cloudy skies will return on Wednesday with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 40's to near 50.

Will The Cutoff Upper-Level Low

Bring Rain & Snow To SE NM?

ECMWF Forecast Valid At 5 PM MST Wed Feb 8, 2012.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Wed Feb 8, 2012.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast. Monday - Thursday.

An upper-level disturbance is forecast to dive southward along the California coast tomorrow into Wednesday. It is then forecast to form a cutoff upper-level low over the Baja Region by Wednesday night, which will linger over that area into the end of the week.

The models still do not have a very good handle on the track of this cutoff upper-level low. If the low moves too far to the south over northwestern Mexico, then our chances for rain and snow here in southeastern New Mexico will decrease.

For now we have a chance for scattered rain showers Wednesday into Friday. Snow may fall across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains.

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Cool Weekend.

2012-02-04T14:01:00.000-07:00

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

NWS HPC Surface Map Forecast At 11 AM Sunday.

A cool dry airmass covers the area today, and will continue to do so into Monday. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with our afternoon high temperatures expected to be in the low-mid 50's this afternoon. It will be a tad cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid 40's to the low 50's. Monday should see the mid 50's. Our overnight lows will remain close to seasonal normal's and will generally range from 25 - 30.

Next Weeks Storm.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.

At 5AM MST Wed Feb 8, 2012.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 8, 2012.

Both the U.S. GFS and the European ECMWF forecast model runs this morning develop a closed upper-level low along the central California coast by around next Tuesday. They then drop it southward into the Baja region through the rest of the end of next week.

This storm could produce scattered rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over the area the middle of next week, along with higher mountain snows. That is if it doesn't move too far to the south.

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Cooler Weather Going Into The Weekend.

2012-02-03T08:23:00.003-07:00

Today.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Today's skies will be sunny across southeastern New Mexico. Our afternoon high temperatures will be a little today compared to yesterday's readings. Most of us will see the low-mid 60's.

High Temperatures Reported Thursday-

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 76
Carlsbad Airport 75
Paduca Raws 75
Roswell Airport 72
Artesia Airport 70
Hobbs Airport 68
2 SW Tatum 67

A re-enforcing shot of cooler air will overspread the area Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday. Partly sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail with afternoon highs in the low-mid 50's on Saturday, and the mid-upper 40's on Sunday. A few spots may make it to 50.

Severe Weather Outbreak Today.

Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

Map Is Courtesy Of AccuWeather.

U.S. Watch/Warning Map At 8:00 AM MST.
Note: This map does update on my web page, please click
on the link above for the latest map.

A powerful winter storm is hammering eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and southern Nebraska this morning. Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of these areas. Rollinsville, Colorado has already measured 27" of snow from this storm. For a list of snowfall totals across Colorado please click on this link. For the latest from the Denver/Boulder National Weather Service Office on this Blizzard, please click on the link.

Next Storm Mid-Week?

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 7, 2012.

ECMWF Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 7, 2012.

Long-range model forecasts indicate that our next potential storm will dive southward along the California coast the first of next week, then close off near southern California by mid-week. This next storm has the potential to bring us a chance for rain showers and a few thunderstorms, along with mountain snows.

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Today's Temps More Like March 2nd Than Feb 2nd.

2012-02-02T09:35:00.001-07:00

Today's Outlook.

Blog updated at 2:10 PM MST.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

20% Chance Of Spotter Activation.

(Northeastern Permian Basin)

Quote- "A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor. Relative humidity values less than 15 percent and winds greater than 20 mph are expected to last through the early evening hours.

Chances for thunderstorms will increase this evening through the overnight hours...mainly along and east of a line from Tatum...New Mexico...through Marathon...Texas. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning.

Some of these thunderstorms could become severe...particularly across the Western Low Rolling Plains and northeastern Permian Basin. Large hail...damaging winds...and brief heavy rain will be possible in these areas."

Map Is Courtesy Of The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Day1 Severe Weather Outlook.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST.

NWS HPC Surface Map Forecast At 5 PM MST Today.

Today is going to feel more like March 2nd than Feb 2nd temperature-wise across southeastern New Mexico and surrounding areas. Under mostly sunny skies our afternoon high temps are forecast to climb up into the low-mid 70's. I would image that a few spots may even make it up into the upper 70's.

A cold front will push eastward through the area later tonight as a Winter Storm winds up over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for parts of northern New Mexico. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains today. Southwesterly winds at around 15-25 mph with gusts up around 30 mph will occur today, with higher gusts in the Guadalupe Mountains.

A cooler airmass will overspread the area tonight into the weekend. Our afternoon highs will range from the upper 50's to the low 60's tomorrow. A re-enforcing surge of cooler air will arrive Friday which will keep our highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50's. Superbowl Sunday will be the coolest day with highs in the upper 40's to the low 50's.

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One Year Ago - We Entered The Deep Freeze!

2012-02-01T11:58:00.007-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 3:05 PM MST.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC.

Surface Map Forecast Valid At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Wind Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Snow For Northern New Mexico -

Winter Weather Advisory.

Red Flag Warning - Guadalupe Mtn's.

High Wind Watch - Guadalupe Mtn's.

New Mexico's next weather maker is diving southward into Washington and Oregon this morning. This next upper-level storm is forecast to be located near the Four-Corners Region by sunset tomorrow. This storm is then forecast to track eastward across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Thursday night into Friday evening.

Since this next winter storm will located well to the north of southeastern New Mexico, most of its inclement weather will remain to our north. Please see the latest Special Weather Statement from the Albuquerque NWS Office, concerning this storms impacts across northern New Mexico.

Warm Again Today & Thursday.

Mostly sunny skies will continue across the area today into Thursday. Our afternoon high temps will range from the upper 60's to the low 70's today. Tomorrow's highs will range from 70 - 75 across most of the local area, with a few of the normally warmer spots reaching the upper 70's.

Southwesterly winds will return this afternoon but they won't get out of hand. Thursday will be breezy ahead of the approaching cold front from the north. Southwesterly winds will kick up tomorrow afternoon to around 20-30 mph with a perhaps a few higher gusts.

Cold Front Thursday Evening.

A cold front will move from north to south across the area late tomorrow afternoon and evening. The dryline will mix eastward, further into west Texas tomorrow night. Cooler temps are forecast for Friday with our highs only expected to be in the 60's. A re-enforcing shot of colder air will arrive Friday night, which will keep our highs on Saturday in the 50's, and the upper 40's to the low-mid 50's on Sunday.

Severe T-Storms Across W TX?

As the upper-level storm draws closer to the state tomorrow, the dryline is forecast to sharpen up along the New Mexico/Texas state line. Moist low-level Gulf of Mexico air is forecast to deepen east of the dryline into Friday.

This along with an atmosphere that will become increasingly more unstable, especially Thursday night into Friday morning, will set the stage for scattered thunderstorms along and east of the dryline.

Some of these may become severe and produce damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado or two across parts of West Texas. Though the tornado threat at this time appears to be fairly low, any discrete supercell thunderstorm that becomes rooted at the surface, will have the potential to produce an isolated tornado. Clusters of thunderstorms are expected and these will pose the greater risk for damaging winds and large hail.

One Year Ago We Started The Plunge.

On the evening of Jan 31st, 2011 a powerful polar cold front entered southeastern New Mexico. I posted the following comments on my summary of the event on February 5th, 2011.

"One of the strongest arctic invasions in decades arrived in the northern sections of southeastern New Mexico just before sunset on Monday, Jan 31st. The Roswell Airport recorded a high temperature of 68 Monday afternoon, the Artesia Airport reached 68, the Carlsbad Airport 70, and Hobbs made it up to 67. These high temps were some ten degrees above normal. That would be the end of the balmy temperatures as mother nature was fixing to give us a reality check. And what a shock it was, this considering that most of our winter here locally has been unusually warm and very dry.

By 9:00 PM the arctic front had moved south of a Hobbs-Carlsbad line. When the cold front arrived in Carlsbad, my thermometer dropped from 56 degrees to 43 degrees in less than five minutes. My barometer shot up like a rocket from 29.76" of mercury to 29.89". Temperatures continued to fall throughout the night, and most locations recorded their high temperature for the day on Tuesday at midnight on Monday. We stayed below freezing here in the Pecos Valley from roughly midnight Monday night until nearly noon on Friday. I don't have the data available to know if this was a new record for the number of days below freezing. Id bet though that it would make the top 10 list, maybe even the top five.

Northerly winds sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph accompanied the frontal passage and continued into Tuesday. Nearly continuous Wind Chill Advisories, and Wind Chill Warnings were issued for all of the local area from Tuesday morning into Friday morning. This was something that I don't ever remember happening before.

Measured wind chill values from Tuesday into Friday mornings ranged from -5F to -20F across the lower elevations of the Pecos Valley, to -40F across the mountains. From northern Lea County northward to the Clovis area, wind chill values hovered around -25F to -30F at times. That was just insane to have these kind of wind chill values for three and one-half days in a row. Wind chill values even crated to the -25F to -40F range in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas."

------------------------------------------------------------

Low temperatures across the local area during this event plunged as low as: -31F at the Fort Stanton Raws, -30F at Mescalero, -27F at the Ruidoso Climate Co-Op Station (a new all time record low temp), -27F in Dry Canyon east of Cloudcroft, -24F at the Aspendale Mountain Retreat south of Cloudcroft, -24F at the Elk Climate Co-Op Station, -23F in mid-town Ruidoso, -22F at the Capitan Climate Co-Op Station, -22F at the Silver Springs Campground northeast of Cloudcroft, -21F at the Mayhill Raws, -20F at the Cloudcroft Climate Co-Op Station (a new record low temp), and -19F at Holloman AFB in Alamogordo.

Here in the Pecos Valley the 8-Mile Draw Raws northeast of Roswell recorded a low of -12F, the Roswell Airport -11F, the Artesia Climate Co-Op Station -7F, the Hope Climate Co-Op Station -5F, the Carlsbad Airport -4F, and the Carlsbad Caverns Climate Co-Op Station -4F.

To view the whole summary of this historic winter event please click on this link. You can also view my other posts concerning this event, by going to the lower right hand side of my web page and opening up the "Blog Archive Link."

Is The Brutal Cold In Alaska Coming South?

Record breaking cold has kept much of Alaska in the deep freeze for this winter. Some areas are experiencing their coldest winter since 1971, others the coldest January on record. Please see this Special Weather Statement from the Fairbanks, Alaska NWS Office for more details. Offical low temperatures observed this past weekend plunged down to -66F at the Fort Yukon Climate Co-Op Station, and -64F at the Kandik River Climate Co-OP Station. Other record low temperatures can be found here- US National Weather Service Alaska Facebook Page.

There are some indications that this brutally cold arctic airmass that has been bottled up over Alaska, may try and head south into the lower 48 states in about a week to ten days.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian published a briefing on You Tube that spells out how this may happen. Please watch his very interesting video below.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian's You Tube Channel.

Will some of the bitterly cold polar air make it into New Mexico? That's a really tough question to answer. For now anyways, it appears that the worst of any such outbreak would stay east of us, however a pattern change is underway, and the details this far out are really fuzzy. So I will keep watching this and will let you know if anything changes.

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La Niña Continues.

2012-01-31T22:10:00.001-07:00

Click On The Charts/Maps To Enlarge Them.

I Thought La Nina Winters Were Supposed

To Be Warmer & Drier Than Normal In New Mexico!

Our winter here in southeastern New Mexico will without a doubt be one than many of us will remember for a long time. This of course would be directly related to the Christmas Eve snowstorm that blanketed the area with 8" - 14" of snow. And not to be outdone was the January 8th - 9th snowstorm that clobbered the Hobbs and Nadine areas with 11" - ~~14"~~ 15" of snow.

La Nina continues to hold on out over the Pacific Ocean. So, if La Nina winters are supposed to be warmer and drier than normal in New Mexico, so how come all of the snow here in southeastern New Mexico so far this season?

The short and easy answer is because the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) got involved. This phenomenon occurs roughly every 30 - 60 days out over the Pacific Ocean, and really is a shorter duration verison of El Nino. The "MJO" energized the subtropical jet stream this winter, which phased with the northern branch of the jet stream, which ended up sending six significant winter storms into New Mexico, three of which produced accumulating snowfall across SE NM.

Potent upper-level storms originating in the Gulf of Alaska, dived southeastward into the Great Basin, and eventually southward to either southern Arizona, New Mexico, or northern Mexico. They then crawled slowly eastward just to our south, energized by moist easterly upslope flow from the Gulf of Mexico, and just enough cold air to produce some hefty snowstorms across the area. It has been nearly a perfect setup for us as far as winter storms are concerned here in southeastern New Mexico. So far this season I have recorded 17.5" of snowfall here at my home in Carlsbad. Incredible for a La Nina winter!

I copied the maps and charts above from off of the Denver/Boulder, Colorado National Weather Service web page. You can find the full article here. Even though the article was geared for Colorado, the principles still apply to New Mexico for this winters behavior.

For more information on La Nina please visit this link. For more information about the "MJO" please visit this link.

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Mid 70's On The Last Day Of Jan - Sure This Isn't March?

2012-01-31T07:11:00.002-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Today.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Very untypical late January weather is anticipated across the area today as we close out the month. Our afternoon high temps will generally range from 70-75 across SE NM. Mostly sunny skies and light winds are expected as well. It certainly will feel more like the first of March than the end of January with these temperatures.

30 Year Normal High-Low Temps.

For January 31st.

(1981-2010)

Roswell ThreadEx 58 - 28

Artesia Climate 60 - 24

Carlsbad Climate 60 - 29

Carlsbad Airport 60 - 30

Hobbs Climate 59 - 31

Tatum Climate 56 - 23

Temperature Data Is Courtesy Of-

The Midland NWS Climate Page

The Albuquerque NWS Climate Page

Latest Update On Our Late Week Storm.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

For now the models seem to be agreeing that an upper-level disturbance will dive southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Four-Corners Region by Thursday. They then forecast a closed low to form over northern New Mexico on Friday. The GFS model slowly moves the closed low northeastward into Kansas by the weekend. The Canadian model (CMC), and the European (ECMWF) model, move the closed low slowly eastward into northern Texas and southern Oklahoma into the weekend.

So there still remains a great deal of uncertainty concerning the track of this next winter storm that is forecast to affect the state late this week. If this storm does not track further to the south than is currently being forecast, then most of its weather should remain north of our area.

A strong cold front is forecast to enter SE NM Thursday night. Colder air will overspread the area Friday and Saturday behind the front. This mornings National Weather Service forecasts call for our high temperatures to range from around 70 to 75 on Thursday ahead of the front. Our afternoon highs will then drop down into the upper 40's to the low 50's behind the front on Friday. Saturday's highs are forecast to be in the 45 - 50 degree range.

Severe Thunderstorms Over W TX Thu?

Map Is Courtesy Of The Storm Prediction Center.

As the upper-level storm approaches the area Wednesday and Thursday, the dryline is forecast to sharpen up across west Texas and perhaps eastern New Mexico. Gulf moisture is forecast to return to the area as low-level upslope flow increases ahead of this storm. Scattered thunderstorms may be possible across the area Thursday into Friday morning. Some of these could potentially become severe across parts of west Texas.

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70-Degree Temperatures Return To End January.

2012-01-30T07:11:00.003-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Map is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Blog updated at 1:35 PM MST today.

Sunny skies and balmy temperatures will rule our local weather today into Wednesday. Our afternoon highs will reach the 70-degree mark across most locations this afternoon, with a few spots a couple of degrees warmer. The same will be true for Tuesday's weather with highs in the low-mid 70's, perhaps a few upper 70's.

A fast moving mid-level disturbance will zip overhead Tuesday, and this will kick up the westerly winds especially over the Guadalupe Mountains. Other than this, the only other impact it will have on our local weather is too knock our afternoon high temps down a few degrees on Wednesday, with the mid-upper 60's forecast across the local area.

Storm Or No Storm?

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST forecast run of the GFS model (depicted above), drops the next short wave trough of low pressure into northern New Mexico and southern Colorado by Thursday. It then closes the storm off (forms a closed mid-upper level low) over Colorado, and slowly wobbles it eastward into Kansas into Saturday.

ECMWF Forecast At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST forecast run of the European (ECMWF) model (depicted above) follows a similar track as the GFS model, at least initially. It too drops the the short wave trough of low pressure into northwestern New Mexico on Thursday. But unlike the GFS model, it closes the storm off over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and stalls it there through Saturday. It then forecasts a split in the storm on Sunday, with a piece of the energy heading into Kansas, and a second piece relocating over northern Arizona. It then stretches the storm out over New Mexico and northeastward into Kansas into next Monday.

CMC Forecast At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST forecast run of the Canadian (CMC) model is similar to the ECMWF, in that it develops a strong closed low over the Four-Corners Region by Thursday. It then wobbles this storm over New Mexico into the weekend and then shears it apart as we head into next Monday.

I think that it would be fair to say that the models have been behaving badly of late concerning our next potential winter storm at the end of this week. They literally have been all over the place with their forecasts concerning this next storm over the past several days. Without a doubt they are struggling to resolve this one.

I think that the state will see a winter storm, but at this point and time that's about all I am certain about. Who gets what and when are questions that are simply not easy to answer this morning. It does appear that colder weather will be returning to SE NM by the end of the week. More on this later.

Alaska Low Temperatures This Weekend.

Charts Are Courtesy Of The Anchorage, AK NWS Office.

More info on the bitter cold gripping Alaska can be found here.

Near Record Shattering Cold In Alaska.

At 9:35 AM AST this past Saturday morning (Jan 28, 2012), the Department of Transportation's weather station located at Jim River, Alaska, which is near Prospect Creek, Alaska, recorded a temperature of -79F. Mysteriously the station quit reporting data for awhile after that.

Sources for this data is found here-

Alaska MesoWest Weather.
Jim River DOT Station.
Jim River CWOP Information.

Coldest Temperature Reported In North America.

Quote- "The coldest reported low temperature in the U.S. was -79.8°F - rounded off to -80°F - observed at Prospect Creek Camp in the Endicott Mountains of northern Alaska on Jan. 23, 1971. The Prospect Creek Camp is along the Alaska pipeline about 20 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (Related: The Arctic Circle).

The record came during an unusually cold month in Alaska, notes the Weather and Climate Extremesbooklet published by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Fairbanks, Alaska, recorded its coldest January on record with a mean temperature of -31.7°F. (The monthly mean is the average of all of the daily highs and lows for the month.)F.

This is not the North American low record. The North American low of -81.4°F. was recorded at Snag in Canada's Yukon Territory, on Feb. 3, 1947."

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Cooler Today.

2012-01-28T09:43:00.004-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 11:12 AM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Visible Satellite Image At 8:09 AM MST.

My SE NM Radar Snapshot At 8:36 AM MST.

A deck of mid-level clouds (altostratus, with bases around 10,000' - 11,000' AGL) covers SE NM this morning. Looking at the "My SE NM Radar Snapshot" posted above, I would say that a few very light rain showers (more like sprinkles) or perhaps a few light snow flurries may be falling across parts of Eddy and Lea Counties. Although a quick peek out of my window reveals a lot of virga (rain or snow falling from the clouds but not reaching the ground) overhead in Carlsbad at 8:40 AM. This will dissipate later this morning.

Cloudy to partly cloudy skies will dominate today and it will be cool with our afternoon highs mostly in the 50's. A few places may only see the mid-upper 40's. Clearing skies along with a colder and drier airmass in place tonight, will allow for excellent radiational cooling to take place across SE NM. Most locations will see the teens to around 20 for low temperatures tomorrow morning.

Sunday will start the temperature climb back up into the upper 50's to the low 60's, and by Monday most of us will see highs from near 70 to the mid 70's. The same will hold true for Tuesday with perhaps a few spots getting up into the upper 70's.

Next Weeks Storm.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Fri Feb 3, 2012.

Our next potential weather maker dives into the Four-Corners Region by the end of next week according to the GFS model forecasts. This mornings run is showing a stronger and colder storm that its previous runs over the past couple of days.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Friday Feb 3, 2012.

This mornings run of the European model (ECMWF) drops a strong disturbance into southwestern New Mexico by around next Friday, and then forecasts it to become "cutoff" from the main jet stream flow to its north by next weekend. Sound familiar? It should, this has been the prevailing pattern for our storms since December here in SE NM.

Brutal Cold Continues To Grip Alaska.

Surface Temperature Analysis At 8 AM MST.

While most of the US has experienced one of its mildest and uneventful (winter weather-wise) January's on record, a brutally cold polar airmass continues its grip on Alaska. Much of Alaska has experienced one its coldest and snowiest winters in years. Fairbanks is experiencing their coldest January in 40 years. Tanana is down to -60F this morning. Huslia was down to -60F yesterday morning, Bettles -55F, Galena -55F, and Tanana was -51F.

"U.S. seems to have largely escaped winter."

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Warm Breezy Ahead Of The Cold Front - Cooler Saturday.

2012-01-27T07:17:00.000-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Sunny skies and balmy afternoon temperatures will rule today's weather across SE NM. Our afternoon highs will be in the upper 60's to the low 70's.

Late this afternoon, a fast moving cold front will race southward through the area. Cooler air will overspread the region tonight into Saturday behind the front. Our high temperatures on Saturday will range from near 50 to the mid 50's.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Pass area for late tonight into tomorrow morning for northeasterly winds at around 35-45 mph. Otherwise our winds here in the southeastern plains will shift around to the north and northeast with the frontal passage, at around 15-25 mph with a few stronger gusts.

Sunday will be a little warmer with our afternoon highs in the low 60's for the most part. Monday will see the warming trend continue with highs in the low-mid 70's. Mostly sunny skies will dominate our local weather into the weekend.

Next Week.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Wed Feb 1, 2012.

Next weeks weather will continue to be warm and tranquil into at least the middle of the week. An upper-level storm is depicted by the models to swing across southern New Mexico by around next Wednesday. But at this time it does not appear that this system will be a very cold or strong storm.

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Thermometer Takes A Roller Coaster Ride.

2012-01-26T07:05:00.000-07:00

Click On The Photo/Maps To Enlarge Them.

Looking south at altocumulus standing lenticular clouds, or

mountain wave clouds, from the parking lot at WalMart in

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Cold Front Arrives Late Friday Afternoon-

Or Early Friday Evening.

Surface Map Forecast Valid At 5 PM MST Fri Jan 27, 2012.

Today will be a little warmer than yesterday across SE NM with our afternoon high temps expected to be in the low-mid 60's. Mostly sunny skies, and dry downslopping westerly winds will kick up tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, at around 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph. Our afternoon highs should climb up into the upper 60's to low 70's with a few spots seeing the mid 70's.

Gusty northerly winds will accompany the frontal passage late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. No significant weather is anticipated with this next cold frontal passage.

Saturday will be a cooler behind the front with highs mostly in the 50's. Sunday's temps will rebound right back up to around the low 60's, and by next Monday we should see the low 70's again. So for the next several days our temperatures will take a roller coaster ride, but nothing too dramatic is forecast into the first of next week.

1981-2010 Normal High/Low Temps.

(January 26th.)

Roswell ThreadEx 57-27

Artesia Climate 59-23

Carlsbad Climate 59-28

Carlsbad Airport 59-30

Hobbs Climate 58-31

Tatum Climate 55-23

Capitan Climate 50-24

Ruidoso Climate 49-23

Elk Climate 54-20

Cloudcroft Climate 43-19

Temperate Data Is Courtesy Of-

Midland NWS Climate Page

El Paso NWS Climate Page

Albuquerque NWS Climate Page

Another Storm In About A Week?

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Next week looks to be fairly tranquil and uneventful weather-wise across SE NM. Our high temperatures are forecast to be above normal from Monday into Wednesday with readings in the 70's.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) computer forecast model indicates that yet another closed mid-upper level low will drop southward into the area late in the week. The GFS model did not depict this, but keeps the pattern rather progressive with a northwesterly flow aloft pattern over the area.

Bitterly Cold Across Northern Alaska.

Surface Temperature Map At 4 AM MST.

A bitterly cold polar airmass covers the North Slope area of northern Alaska early this morning. Temperatures in this region are as low as -64F with wind chill values down to -80F to -85F.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.