Welcome To The Southeastern New Mexico Weather Web Page!

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Blog updated at 1:35 PM MST today.

Sunny skies and balmy temperatures will rule our local weather today into Wednesday. Our afternoon highs will reach the 70-degree mark across most locations this afternoon, with a few spots a couple of degrees warmer. The same will be true for Tuesday's weather with highs in the low-mid 70's, perhaps a few upper 70's.

A fast moving mid-level disturbance will zip overhead Tuesday, and this will kick up the westerly winds especially over the Guadalupe Mountains. Other than this, the only other impact it will have on our local weather is too knock our afternoon high temps down a few degrees on Wednesday, with the mid-upper 60's forecast across the local area.

Storm Or No Storm?

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST forecast run of the GFS model (depicted above), drops the next short wave trough of low pressure into northern New Mexico and southern Colorado by Thursday. It then closes the storm off (forms a closed mid-upper level low) over Colorado, and slowly wobbles it eastward into Kansas into Saturday.

ECMWF Forecast At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST forecast run of the European (ECMWF) model (depicted above) follows a similar track as the GFS model, at least initially. It too drops the the short wave trough of low pressure into northwestern New Mexico on Thursday. But unlike the GFS model, it closes the storm off over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and stalls it there through Saturday. It then forecasts a split in the storm on Sunday, with a piece of the energy heading into Kansas, and a second piece relocating over northern Arizona. It then stretches the storm out over New Mexico and northeastward into Kansas into next Monday.

CMC Forecast At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST forecast run of the Canadian (CMC) model is similar to the ECMWF, in that it develops a strong closed low over the Four-Corners Region by Thursday. It then wobbles this storm over New Mexico into the weekend and then shears it apart as we head into next Monday.

I think that it would be fair to say that the models have been behaving badly of late concerning our next potential winter storm at the end of this week. They literally have been all over the place with their forecasts concerning this next storm over the past several days. Without a doubt they are struggling to resolve this one.

I think that the state will see a winter storm, but at this point and time that's about all I am certain about. Who gets what and when are questions that are simply not easy to answer this morning. It does appear that colder weather will be returning to SE NM by the end of the week. More on this later.

Alaska Low Temperatures This Weekend.

Charts Are Courtesy Of The Anchorage, AK NWS Office.

More info on the bitter cold gripping Alaska can be found here.

Near Record Shattering Cold In Alaska.

At 9:35 AM AST this past Saturday morning (Jan 28, 2012), the Department of Transportation's weather station located at Jim River, Alaska, which is near Prospect Creek, Alaska, recorded a temperature of -79F. Mysteriously the station quit reporting data for awhile after that.

Sources for this data is found here-

Alaska MesoWest Weather.
Jim River DOT Station.
Jim River CWOP Information.

Coldest Temperature Reported In North America.

Quote- "The coldest reported low temperature in the U.S. was -79.8°F - rounded off to -80°F - observed at Prospect Creek Camp in the Endicott Mountains of northern Alaska on Jan. 23, 1971. The Prospect Creek Camp is along the Alaska pipeline about 20 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (Related: The Arctic Circle).

The record came during an unusually cold month in Alaska, notes the Weather and Climate Extremesbooklet published by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Fairbanks, Alaska, recorded its coldest January on record with a mean temperature of -31.7°F. (The monthly mean is the average of all of the daily highs and lows for the month.)F.

This is not the North American low record. The North American low of -81.4°F. was recorded at Snag in Canada's Yukon Territory, on Feb. 3, 1947."

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Cooler Today.

2012-01-28T09:43:00.004-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 11:12 AM MST.

Visible Satellite Image At 8:09 AM MST.

My SE NM Radar Snapshot At 8:36 AM MST.

A deck of mid-level clouds (altostratus, with bases around 10,000' - 11,000' AGL) covers SE NM this morning. Looking at the "My SE NM Radar Snapshot" posted above, I would say that a few very light rain showers (more like sprinkles) or perhaps a few light snow flurries may be falling across parts of Eddy and Lea Counties. Although a quick peek out of my window reveals a lot of virga (rain or snow falling from the clouds but not reaching the ground) overhead in Carlsbad at 8:40 AM. This will dissipate later this morning.

Cloudy to partly cloudy skies will dominate today and it will be cool with our afternoon highs mostly in the 50's. A few places may only see the mid-upper 40's. Clearing skies along with a colder and drier airmass in place tonight, will allow for excellent radiational cooling to take place across SE NM. Most locations will see the teens to around 20 for low temperatures tomorrow morning.

Sunday will start the temperature climb back up into the upper 50's to the low 60's, and by Monday most of us will see highs from near 70 to the mid 70's. The same will hold true for Tuesday with perhaps a few spots getting up into the upper 70's.

Next Weeks Storm.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Fri Feb 3, 2012.

Our next potential weather maker dives into the Four-Corners Region by the end of next week according to the GFS model forecasts. This mornings run is showing a stronger and colder storm that its previous runs over the past couple of days.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Friday Feb 3, 2012.

This mornings run of the European model (ECMWF) drops a strong disturbance into southwestern New Mexico by around next Friday, and then forecasts it to become "cutoff" from the main jet stream flow to its north by next weekend. Sound familiar? It should, this has been the prevailing pattern for our storms since December here in SE NM.

Brutal Cold Continues To Grip Alaska.

Surface Temperature Analysis At 8 AM MST.

While most of the US has experienced one of its mildest and uneventful (winter weather-wise) January's on record, a brutally cold polar airmass continues its grip on Alaska. Much of Alaska has experienced one its coldest and snowiest winters in years. Fairbanks is experiencing their coldest January in 40 years. Tanana is down to -60F this morning. Huslia was down to -60F yesterday morning, Bettles -55F, Galena -55F, and Tanana was -51F.

"U.S. seems to have largely escaped winter."

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Warm Breezy Ahead Of The Cold Front - Cooler Saturday.

2012-01-27T07:17:00.000-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Sunny skies and balmy afternoon temperatures will rule today's weather across SE NM. Our afternoon highs will be in the upper 60's to the low 70's.

Late this afternoon, a fast moving cold front will race southward through the area. Cooler air will overspread the region tonight into Saturday behind the front. Our high temperatures on Saturday will range from near 50 to the mid 50's.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Pass area for late tonight into tomorrow morning for northeasterly winds at around 35-45 mph. Otherwise our winds here in the southeastern plains will shift around to the north and northeast with the frontal passage, at around 15-25 mph with a few stronger gusts.

Sunday will be a little warmer with our afternoon highs in the low 60's for the most part. Monday will see the warming trend continue with highs in the low-mid 70's. Mostly sunny skies will dominate our local weather into the weekend.

Next Week.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Wed Feb 1, 2012.

Next weeks weather will continue to be warm and tranquil into at least the middle of the week. An upper-level storm is depicted by the models to swing across southern New Mexico by around next Wednesday. But at this time it does not appear that this system will be a very cold or strong storm.

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Thermometer Takes A Roller Coaster Ride.

2012-01-26T07:05:00.000-07:00

Click On The Photo/Maps To Enlarge Them.

Looking south at altocumulus standing lenticular clouds, or

mountain wave clouds, from the parking lot at WalMart in

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Cold Front Arrives Late Friday Afternoon-

Or Early Friday Evening.

Surface Map Forecast Valid At 5 PM MST Fri Jan 27, 2012.

Today will be a little warmer than yesterday across SE NM with our afternoon high temps expected to be in the low-mid 60's. Mostly sunny skies, and dry downslopping westerly winds will kick up tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, at around 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph. Our afternoon highs should climb up into the upper 60's to low 70's with a few spots seeing the mid 70's.

Gusty northerly winds will accompany the frontal passage late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. No significant weather is anticipated with this next cold frontal passage.

Saturday will be a cooler behind the front with highs mostly in the 50's. Sunday's temps will rebound right back up to around the low 60's, and by next Monday we should see the low 70's again. So for the next several days our temperatures will take a roller coaster ride, but nothing too dramatic is forecast into the first of next week.

1981-2010 Normal High/Low Temps.

(January 26th.)

Roswell ThreadEx 57-27

Artesia Climate 59-23

Carlsbad Climate 59-28

Carlsbad Airport 59-30

Hobbs Climate 58-31

Tatum Climate 55-23

Capitan Climate 50-24

Ruidoso Climate 49-23

Elk Climate 54-20

Cloudcroft Climate 43-19

Temperate Data Is Courtesy Of-

Midland NWS Climate Page

El Paso NWS Climate Page

Albuquerque NWS Climate Page

Another Storm In About A Week?

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thu Feb 2, 2012.

Next week looks to be fairly tranquil and uneventful weather-wise across SE NM. Our high temperatures are forecast to be above normal from Monday into Wednesday with readings in the 70's.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) computer forecast model indicates that yet another closed mid-upper level low will drop southward into the area late in the week. The GFS model did not depict this, but keeps the pattern rather progressive with a northwesterly flow aloft pattern over the area.

Bitterly Cold Across Northern Alaska.

Surface Temperature Map At 4 AM MST.

A bitterly cold polar airmass covers the North Slope area of northern Alaska early this morning. Temperatures in this region are as low as -64F with wind chill values down to -80F to -85F.

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Rain & Snow Showers Will End Today.

2012-01-25T09:01:00.004-07:00

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST This Morning.

Winter Weather Advisory!
Guadalupe Mtn's - Valid Until 2 PM MST
Another 1' - 3" Of Snow Is Possible.

A closed mid-upper level low was located south of Carlsbad New Mexico this morning, near the Texas Big Bend. It is forecast to slowly wobble eastward today into tonight. Light rain and snow showers developed across parts of the area overnight, with a few reports of sleet mixed in with the rain and snow.

As this upper level storm sags to the east today our skies will clear across southeastern New Mexico, as the rain and snow showers gradually come to an end. Our afternoon highs are forecast to be mostly in the upper 40's to the low 50's.

Thursday will be a little warmer with highs in the low 60's. Friday will be even warmer ahead of an approaching cold front with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70's.

Cold Front Arrives Friday Night.

Surface Map Forecast Valid At 5 AM MST Sat Jan 28, 2012.

Our next weather maker will arrive Friday night in the form of a cold front. Cooler air will overspread the area on Saturday with highs in the 50's. Sunday's temperatures will rebound right back up to near 60 or the low 60's.

Snowfall Totals As Of 8 AM MST-

Ski Apache 4.0"
0.07 N Sunspot 3.5"
Queen 3.2"
1.8 SW Cloudcroft 2.2"
High Rolls 0.7"
4.9 NE of Cloudcroft 0.6"
Cloudcroft Climate 0.5"

Rainfall Totals As Of 8 AM MST-

10 ESE Hagerman .14"
Cosmic Raws - Apache Point .13"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .12"
Alamogordo DW8375 .12"
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns .11"
High Roll .10"
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport .05"
Paduca Raws.04"
Holloman AFB .03"
Carrizozo Airport .03"
Artesia Airport .01"

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Severe T-Storm Possible Across Parts Of W TX This Evening!

2012-01-24T14:30:00.003-07:00

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC.

30% Chance Of Spotter Activation!

Quote- "An upper level storm system will slowly approach west Texas and southeast New Mexico tonight. Surface low pressure will be located in the vicinity of southeast New Mexico, while a dryline extends southward through the Lower Trans Pecos region.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the Lower Trans Pecos region this evening.

A few storms could become severe across locations east of a Midland and Odessa, Bakersfield, Sanderson line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe hazards, though an isolated tornado will be possible."

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Chance For Rain Into Tonight - Mixing With Snow Late.

2012-01-24T06:55:00.005-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge them.

Blog updated at 3:34 PM MST.

Map is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

IR Satellite Image At5:30 AM MST This Morning.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST This Morning.

Winter Weather Advisory!

Northern Sacramento Mtn's

Valid 11 AM MST Today - 8 AM MST Wed.

2"- 4" Snowfall Below 7,500'

4"-7" Above 7,500'.

Winter Weather Advisory!

Southern Sacramento Mtn's

Valid 11 AM MST Today - 11 AM MST Wed.

3"- 7" Snowfall Above 6,500'.

Winter Weather Advisory!
(Guadalupe Mtn's)
Valid 11 PM MST Tonight - 5 PM MST Wednesday
A Rain/Snow Mix Tonight Above 6,000'.
Rain Changing Over To Snow After Midnight
In The Guadalupe Mtn's. 2" - 4" Of Snow
Possible In The Guadalupe Mtn's By Wed.

Special Weather Statement!
(Eddy-Culberson Counties.)
Rain/Snow/Sleet Mix Across Eddy/Culberson
Counties Late Tonight Into Wed Morning. Isolated
T-Storms Possible Which Will Enhance The Wintry
Precipitation.

At sunrise this morning our next weather maker was located over southern Arizona. This mid-upper level disturbance continues to sag southward early this morning, and is forecast to form a closed low later today. It is then forecast to crawl slowly east or southeastward along the New Mexico/Mexico border tonight,and by tomorrow morning it is forecast to be located over or near southeastern New Mexico.

I am a little concerned that this next inbound mid-upper level storm is going to end up being a little stronger than forecast, and it appears to have shifted a little further to the west than what the models have been forecasting. If this storm digs southward into northern Mexico and stalls, then our chances for seeing accumulating snowfall across parts of SE NM could increase later tonight into tomorrow morning. This has been a winter of surprises for SE NM and W TX, so I would not be shocked to see some of us get some snow on the ground out of this storm. I think that this will be especially over and near the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains. Just my two cents worth of thinking on this storm folks.

Cloudy skies will dominate the area today with our afternoon high temps expected to be in the upper 50's to the mid 60's. A Pacific cold front will move into the area tonight. Our overnight lows are forecast to drop down to near freezing by sunrise tomorrow morning. Wednesday will be cooler with highs ranging from 45 - 50.

Rain showers and higher mountain snow showers are increasing this morning over the western one-third of the state. These will continue to increase in aerial coverage and intensity throughout the day. By this afternoon scattered rain showers will move into our local area and continue into tonight. Our chances of seeing measurable rain and snowfall currently stand at around 40% - 50%.

An isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of the questions across SE NM. There is a better chance of this happening across parts of West Texas in the Permian Basin and Lower Tran Pecos areas. A few of these t-storms may approach severe levels and produce large hail and strong wind gusts.

Snow is forecast to mix in with the rain over parts of SE NM late tonight into tomorrow morning. However, current thinking from our local National Weather Service Offices is that the airmass will not be quite be cold enough to support accumulating snowfall amounts across the lower elevations of SE NM and W TX.

Snow levels today across the Sacramento Mountains are forecast to range from around 6,000' to 6,500' MSL. Snow levels are forecast to drop down to around 5,000 MSL over the western slopes of the Sacramento's by tomorrow morning. Accumulating snowfall will occur today above 6,500' MSL.

Snowfall totals across the Sacramento Mountains are forecast to generally be in the 3" - 7" range by midday Wednesday. A few of the higher peaks and east facing slopes may see a little more than this.

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Mid-Week Storm - Rain/Snow Mix.

2012-01-23T07:15:00.004-07:00

Click On The Photos/Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 2:25 PM MST.

Garden & McGaffey Streets In Roswell, NM Sunday.

Mescalero & Main Streets In Roswell, NM Sunday.

Photos Are Courtesy Of Chaves Co Skywarn Coordinator

Jim Tucker In Roswell, NM.

Yesterday's Winds.

Several reports of wind damage were received across the local area yesterday. A friend of mine who lives in Artesia, reported that a tree was blown down onto her carport and sons car early Sunday morning. The peak wind gust at the Artesia Airport was 67 mph and occurred at 4:15 AM MST. Small tree branches were also reported to have been blown down across Artesia as well.

Chaves County Skywarn Coordinator Jim Tucker (KB0QNW) shot the two photos above of some of the wind damage in Roswell yesterday. Scattered power outages were reported across Roswell yesterday, with as many as 6,300 people without power for a couple of hours according to the KZ93 Facebook Page.

Some of the higher wind gusts recorded include 93 mph at the San Augustin Raws located in the Organ Mountains east of Las Cruces. A gust to 92 mph was clocked at the Bowl Raws located just north of Guadalupe Peak. Guadalupe Pass, the Pinery Raws located in Pine Springs, and the Sierra Blanca Regional Airport all reported peak wind gusts of 78 mph. The Carlsbad Airport peaked out at 60 mph, while the top gust recorded at the Roswell Airport was 52 mph.

I posted a list of Sunday's peak wind gusts on my blog yesterday, and you can view them by clicking on this link. You can also view the list of peak wind gusts across northern and central New Mexico via this link, courtesy of the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office. A list of some of the wind damage and peak winds reported across the Midland National Weather Service Office County Warning Area can be view via this link.

One Storm Exits - Another On The Way!

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Quote- "An upper level storm system will approach the region Tuesday. Surface low pressure will deepen near the Texas and New Mexico border, while a dryline sharpens from the western Permian Basin to the Lower Trans Pecos region. To the east of the dryline, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few storms could approach severe limits with large hail and damaging winds in the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. To the west of the dryline, gusty westerly winds and low humidity will bring elevated fire weather conditions to much of southwest Texas."

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM Tue Jan 24, 2012.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Albuquerque.

A lot of people have been asking me lately if winter is over for SE NM and my answer has been "No it isn't." Winter Storm #7 for the state, or #4 for SE NM, will begin impacting the area Tuesday afternoon. This next storm is currently not expected to be as cold or as moist as its two previous predecessors.

An upper-level disturbance located just off the central California Coast at sunrise this morning is forecast to drop southeastward to the Four-Corners Region by tonight. This disturbance is then forecast to form a closed mid-upper level low over the state on Tuesday. As it sags southeastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, current model forecasts place the center of this storm generally over southern or southeastern New Mexico.

Today will be the calm before the storm with mostly sunny skies and balmy afternoon highs with readings mostly in the upper 60's. Clouds will begin to increase on Tuesday as the storm to our northwest draws closer. A few light rain showers will break out over the local area Tuesday afternoon, and these will increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday evening. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.

A Pacific cold front is forecast to move eastward across the area on Tuesday. After seeing afternoon high temperatures from near 60 to the low 60's, colder air will move in overnight into Wednesday morning. Our low temperatures are forecast to drop down to near freezing by late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the upper 50's to near 50.

Current thinking is that a rain/snow mix will occur over parts of the southeastern plains late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the current model forecast track of the mid-upper level closed low, it does not appear at this time that the storm will drop far enough to our south, to produce more snow than rain across the lower elevations. However, should the storm dig a little further to the west and south than current forecasts indicate, and the cold air becomes more widespread across the area, then our chances of seeing accumulating snows here in the SE NM plains would increase.

Accumulating snowfall is expected across the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains generally above 7,000' MSL Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time it appears that the mountains may see 2"-4" of new snow out of this storm. Again, if the storm track shifts further to the south and west than currently is expected, then these amounts could be greater than is currently being forecast.

Long-range model forecast have a couple of storms impacting the state next week.

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High Wind Event Underway!

2012-01-22T07:07:00.005-07:00

Mobile App Link To My Daily Blogs.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Visible Satellite Image Of The Blowing Dust At 12:55 PM MST.

Today's MODIS Image Of The Blowing Dust.

Dangerous High Wind -Blowing Dust Event Underway.

Dangerous Fire Wx Conditions Today!

Blog updated at 2:13 PM MST.

High Wind Warnings cover most of SE NM and W TX early this morning, except for Chaves County which is under a Wind Advisory. West-northwest winds are forecast to howl at sustained speeds of around 35-45 mph with gusts to near or over 60 mph across the lower elevations of SE NM today. These winds are forecast to gust up over 70-80 mph in the mountains. The strongest winds may occur between sunrise and around noontime when the Pacific cold front sweeps eastward across the area.

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions will exists across all of the area today. Any wildfire that should break out will have the potential to rapidly spread and grow in the high winds. Please refrain from any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame.

A Blowing Dust Advisory remains in effect for Lea County until 3 PM MST. Blowing dust will reduce the visibility down to less than 3 miles in some areas, when a few areas possibly experiencing visibility drops down to less than one mile in the stronger wind gusts. This will be especially true over and near freshly plowed or exposed farmland, fields, lots, and construction sites, as well as other normally dust prone areas.

Travel on local roadways could be impacted today due to the high winds and blowing dust! Some local road closures may be possible.

Peak Winds Reported As Of 2:00 PM MST-

San Augustin Pass - Organ Mtn's 93 mph

Bowl Raws - North of Guadalupe Pk 92 mph

Guadalupe Pass 78 mph

Pinery Raws - Pine Springs 78 mph

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 78 mph

Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 68 mph

Artesia Airport 67 mph
Pine Springs GMN 65 mph
Clovis Municipal Airport 62 mph

Carlsbad Airport 60 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 60 mph
East Vaughn 60 mph

Queen Raws 58 mph
Santa Rosa 57 mph

Dunken Raws 56 mph
2 SW of Tatum 56 mph
8-Mile Draw Raws 56 mph
Ridgecrest Subdivision - Carlsbad 56 mph
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns 54 mph
Northeast Lovington 53 mph

Sacramento Pk 52 mph
Roswell Airport 52 mph

High Rolls 52 mph

Caprock Raws 51 mph
Hobbs Airport 51 mph

Mayhill Raws 48 mph

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 46 mph

Paduca Raws 42 mph

Wind Data Is Courtesy Of-

MesoWest Weather
Weather Underground

NCAR Surface Observations

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Very Windy Sunday!

2012-01-21T10:14:00.003-07:00

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Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

New Daily Record High Temp.
(Thu Jan 19, 2012.)

Roswell, NM.

As was expected yesterday was another unusually warm day across SE NM. High temperatures ranged from 81 at the Paduca Raws locted near the WIPP Site, to 79 at my home here in Carlsbad, 79 at the Carlsbad Airport, 79 at the Roswell Airport, 78 at the Artesia Airport, to 75 at the Hobbs Airport. Today will see similar weather, although it will be a tad bit cooler.

High Winds - Blowing Dust Sunday!

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 12Z/5 AM MST Sun Jan 22, 2012.

Red Flag Warning!
SE NM & W TX Today.
Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions.

High Wind Warning!
SW Chaves - Lincoln Counties.
Valid From 4 PM This Afternoon-
5 PM MST Sunday Afternoon.
West Winds Increasing To 25-35G50 MPH This Afternoon.
Strengthening To 35-45G65 MPH Tonight Into Sunday Morning.
Areas Of Blowing Dust Reducing The Visibility.

High Wind Warning!
Southern Sacramento Mtn's.
Valid From 7 PM This Afternoon-
1 PM MST Sunday Afternoon.
West Winds Increasing To 35-45G60 MPH.
Areas Of Blowing Dust Reducing The Visibility.

High Wind Watch!
Guadalupe Mtn's.
Late Tonight - Sunday Afternoon.
West Winds Increasing Tonight To 40-55G75 MPH.

Areas Of Blowing Dust Reducing
The Visibility To Less Than 3 Miles At Times.

Wind Advisory!
SE NM & W TX Sunday.
Valid 5 AM - 5 PM MST.
West Winds 25-40G50-55 MPH.
Areas Of Blowing Dust Reducing
The Visibility To Less Than 3 Miles At Times.

As had been previously mentioned, a fast moving short wave trough of low pressure is forecast to swing by to our north across northern New Mexico tomorrow. A High Wind event for the area will result from this as the surface pressure gradient tightens up later tonight into tomorrow.

Strong winds will kick up over the mountains later this afternoon, and then spread out onto the adjacent plains overnight into tomorrow morning. Areas of blowing dust are expected to develop across the area and may reduce the visibility down to less than 3 miles at times in places. This will be especially true over and near farmlands, freshly plowed or open fields, lots and construction sites.

Some areas may experience damage from these high winds, especially over and near the mountains and foothills. This will be especially true with the higher gusts of over 60 mph.

Next Weeks Storm Still On Track.

GFS 12Z/5 AM MST 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 24, 2012.

This mornings run of the 12Z GFS model is now coming more in line with the European (ECMWF), and the Canadian (CMC) models in tracking the mid-upper level low further to the south with time, and slowing its eastward progress down. The GFS and Canadian models do not eject this cutoff low eastward into the Texas Bend until about next Friday. The ECMWF is a little faster and ejects it eastward by Wednesday night.

Moisture availability, and just how much cold air this storm will have to work with will be crucial in determining who gets snow across the local area and who does not. A rain and snow mix now looks possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for parts of SE NM, along with a few thunderstorms.

This is not written in stone just yet, so I would expect to continue to see some changes in our local forecasts concerning this next potential Winter Storm as we head into next week. This storm has the potential to at least produce some decent snowfall totals across the higher elevations of the mountains.

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More Record Warmth & Breezy - Windy Today.

2012-01-20T06:56:00.001-07:00

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Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

High Wind Warning.

Guadalupe Mtn's - Continues Until 8 PM MST Tonight.

West Winds 35-45G60 MPH.

Wind Advisory.

Lincoln County.

Continues In Effect Until 8 PM MST Today.

West Winds 35G50 MPH.

Red Flag Warning!

SE NM & W TX.

Valid From 11 AM - 5 PM MST.

SW-W Winds 20-30G35+ MPH.

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions.

Record High Temps Possible Again Today.

As of 5 AM MST this morning, the Roswell Airport was reporting a temp of 32F with calm winds. Meanwhile, at the Carlsbad Airport the temp was 61F with a WSW wind at 23 mph gusting to 28 mph. This temperature difference is a direct result of those warm dry downslopping southwesterly winds that are occurring across the Guadalupe Mountains.

In fact these winds have gusted up to 69 mph at the Bowl Raws, which is located about a 1/2 mile north of Guadalupe Peak, 60 mph at the Pinery Raws located in Pine Springs, and 34 mph at the Queen Raws which had a temp of 50 at 5 AM.

High temperatures yesterday ranged from 80 at the Roswell Airport and the Paduca Raws which is located near the WIPP Site southeast of Carlsbad. Other highs include 79 at my home here in Carlsbad, 79 at the Carlsbad Airport, 78 at the 8-Mile Draw Raws located northeast of Roswell, 78 10 miles ESE of Hagerman, 77 at the Artesia Airport, 77 in Hobbs (Jefferson) 76 2 miles SW of Tatum, 75 at the Hobbs Airport. A list of the daily record high temperatures that were set yesterday will be published later today.

Another breezy to windy day in on tap for the local area today. Forecast high temperatures are once again expected to top out into the upper 70's, with a few spots possibly see the 80-degree mark once again this afternoon. Southwesterly winds of around 20-30 mph with a few gusts above 35 mph can be expected across parts of SE NM today.

Warm & Windy Weekend.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Sun Jan 22, 2012.

GFS 400 MB Wind Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Sun Jan 22, 2012.

High Wind Watch.

SW Chaves & Lincoln Counties.

Valid Saturday Morning - Sunday Morning.

West Winds Increasing To 40G60+ MPH.

A warm and windy weekend is on tap for the area. The highest winds will likely occur over and near the mountains Saturday into Sunday. A jet stream wind speed maximum at located at about 400 millibars, or about 24,000' Mean Sea Level (see the map above) is forecast to sweep across northern New Mexico on Sunday.

Strong winds aloft are forecast to mix downward to the surface Saturday, and more so on Sunday. This along with a tightening surface pressure gradient will produce westerly winds of around 20-30 mph with higher gusts across the lower elevations, especially on Sunday.

Should this next mid-upper level trough of low pressure swing a little further to the south than is currently forecast, the SE NM would see stronger winds than is in current forecast. Our high temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be mostly in the low-mid 70's. Sunday will be a little cooler with highs in the 60's to near 70.

Next Weeks Potential Winter Storm.

Last Nights 00Z/5PM MST ECMWF Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tue Jan 24, 2012.

Last nights model runs have started their usual game of flip-flopping their forecast around concerning next weeks next potential Winter Storm for the area. This is to be expected given the difficult split flow pattern that has prevailed until recently this winter. A better picture of how strong and wet this next storm will be, may not occur until later this weekend, when this storm drops southward out of the Gulf of Alaska, and into the Pacific Northwest. So until then, the models may not have a good handle on this storm.

Current model forecast indicate that we may be dealing with another potentially strong Winter Storm by the middle of next week. Most of the models dig the storm southward into northern Mexico, and cut if off from the main jet stream flow to its north. How cold will the storm be, how far south will it dig, and how much moisture will it have to work with, will all be crucial as to what impacts if any this storm has on the local area.

I will keep you posted as the details emerge out of the murky waters of model forecasting.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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80-Degrees Today - More Snow Next Week?

2012-01-19T14:51:00.004-07:00

Mobile App Link For My Daily Blogs.

Will Winter Storm #4

Clobber E/SE NM Next Week?

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Jan 25, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Jan 25, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST CMC Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Jan 25, 2012.

It Is Still The Middle Of January Right?

Just for fun I thought that I would post this. At 2 PM MST, the Roswell, NM Airport ASOS is reporting a temperature of 80F. Not to be outdone the Paduca Raws near the WIPP Site is also reporting 80F. Meanwhile I have 79F on my Davis Vantage Pro2 Home Weather Station in my back yard. The Carlsbad Airport has reached 78F so far today, the Artesia Airport 75F, and the Hobbs Airport 73F.

Anyone up for yet another snowstorm across eastern and southeastern New Mexico by around the middle of next week? Well if you believe this mornings 12Z runs of the GFS, European (ECMWF), and the Canadian (CMC) computer forecast models, then this may be a reality for us.

All three of these models are forecasting a strong disturbance to dive southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Desert Southwest by the first of next week. They then push it south into northern Mexico and develop a strong cutoff mid-upper level low.

The GFS is the furthest east with its forecast and closes off a strong mid-upper level low over southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday. It then cuts this low off from the northern jet stream flow to the north, and parks it well south of us over northern Mexico into Friday, before ejecting it eastward into the Texas Big Bend Country by Saturday.

The Canadian model (CMC) is very similar but stronger and further to the west with the closed low. It drops a strong cutoff mid-upper level low into the Baja Region by Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then retrogrades it westward out over the Pacific into the weekend of the 28th and 29th.

The European (ECMWF) model is similar to the Canadian model and cuts off a strong mid-upper level low over the Baja Region by next Thursday, but ejects it eastward across northern Mexico to our south by Saturday the 28th.

All of the models indicate that enough cold air may be present to produce a healthy snowstorm across parts of the local area by around next Tuesday and Wednesday. Maybe even beyond if the models slow down the timing on the ejection eastward of the storm.

I know that this potential Significant Winter Storm is nearly a week away, and the models have not performed all that well so far this winter, but this is almost the same identical pattern we saw for December, and the first part of this month.

Granted the forecast model runs will likely change their tune between now and the first of next week on what, if any impacts this next potential Winter Storm may, or may not have on SE NM and surrounding areas. But you have got to admit that this winter here in SE NM has been a wild one to say the least.

Folks it ain't over until the fat lady sings, and she has about another two months left on center stage. It seems like old man winter, and mother nature have teamed up this winter to make up for the horrendously hot, and dry (winter of 2010-spring-summer-fall of 2011) we just came out of. Works for me...can't wait to see what the spring has in store for us!!! Maybe we will be able to get in some serious storm chasing across E/SE NM & W TX.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Record High Temps Possible Today - Breezy.

2012-01-19T07:13:00.002-07:00

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Map is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

March Temperatures In January.

A mid-level disturbance moving eastward across northern New Mexico early this morning, was responsible for kicking up our winds here locally overnight. Westerly winds have generally been gusting up into the 30-40 mph range. These gusty westerly winds have also kept our temperatures up. Readings at 6 AM ranged from 45 at the Artesia Airport, 52 at the Roswell Airport, 58 at the Carlsbad Airport, 59 at the Bat Draw Raws located at the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center, to 59 in Pine Springs.

Near record, to record high temperatures are still forecast across the local area this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 70's to near 80. Friday's highs will be very close to today's readings, perhaps a couple of degrees warmer.

Gusty southwesterly-westerly downslopping winds will kick up Friday across the area. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains, which will be in effect from late tonight into Friday evening. Westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 35-45 mph with gusts near 65 mph.

A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for all of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas for Friday. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions are forecast, so please refrain from any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame.

Record High Temperatures-

(Thursday Jan 19th)

Roswell ThreadEX 80 in 2000

Artesia Climate 78 in 2000

Carlsbad Climate 79 in 2000

Carlsbad Airport 86 in 2000

Hobbs Climate 74 in 1986

Tatum Climate 74 in 2000

Record High Temperatures-

(Friday Jan 20th)

Roswell ThreadEX 80 in 1911

Artesia Climate 81 in 2000

Carlsbad Climate 83 in 2000

Carlsbad Airport 80 in 1986

Hobbs Climate 78 in 1986

Tatum Climate 77 in 2000

Temperature Data Is Courtesy Of-

Midland NWS Climate Page

Albuquerque NWS Climate Page

Will Winter Return Next Week?

Last Nights 00Z/ 5 PM MST ECMWF Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tue Jan 24, 2012.

Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tue Jan 24, 2012.

Last nights model runs were doing a little better as far as agreeing on next weeks storm. Both the GFS and European (ECMWF) models drop a disturbance southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin this weekend.

They then close this system off over southwestern New Mexico by around next Tuesday. This pattern favors a better chance of us seeing precipitation across the area, Just how much moisture the storm has to work with, and how much cold air will be ingested into it, will determine who gets rain and snow and how much.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Record High Temps Possible Thu & Fri.

2012-01-18T07:02:00.003-07:00

Mobile App Link For My Daily Blogs.

Blog updated at 2:09 PM MST.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Record High Temps Possible Thu & Fri.

Fire Weather Watch Friday!

Sunny skies will dominate today into the weekend. Near record, to record high temperatures will be possible across the area Thursday and Friday. Our afternoon highs today will be in the upper 60's, with a few of us nearing 70. Thursday will be even warmer with highs in the upper 70's to near 80. Friday's high will be even warmer with a few spots topping out in the low 80's.

Strong gusty southwesterly-westerly winds will return Friday as a fast moving upper-level disturbance zips by to our north across Colorado. These winds will kick up to around 20-30 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon. Another High Wind Event may be possible for the Guadalupe Mountains. The weekend will be warm, and Sunday may be another windy day as a second fast moving upper-level disturbance moves by to our north.

Record High Temperatures-

(Thursday Jan 19th)

Roswell ThreadEX 80 in 2000

Artesia Climate 78 in 2000

Carlsbad Climate 79 in 2000

Carlsbad Airport 86 in 2000

Hobbs Climate 74 in 1986

Tatum Climate 74 in 2000

Record High Temperatures-

(Friday Jan 20th)

Roswell ThreadEX 80 in 1911

Artesia Climate 81 in 2000

Carlsbad Climate 83 in 2000

Carlsbad Airport 80 in 1986

Hobbs Climate 78 in 1986

Tatum Climate 77 in 2000

Temperature Data Is Courtesy Of-

Midland NWS Climate Page

Albuquerque NWS Climate Page

Next Week's Potential Winter Storm.

Last Nights GFS 00Z/5 PM MST 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Tue Jan 24, 2012.

Last nights run of the ECMWF model backed off on the strength of our next potential Winter Storm early next week. The GFS model runs now look more like what the ECMWF model had been forecasting. It is now forecasting closed mid-upper level low diving southward into southeastern Arizona by around next Tuesday. Nothing new here, this has been the pattern this winter so far.

I think that we are still on track for seeing another strong Winter Storm develop over the Desert Southwest early next week. Remember we are talking about a storm that has not even formed yet, much less having been sampled by the upper air station network (the few that there are) over the Pacific Northwest. More on this later.

Bitterly Cold Across Canada This Morning.

Surface Temperature Map At 6 AM MST.

Widespread temperatures of -20F to -30F cover much of Canada at sunrise this morning. A few areas are as cold as -40F to -50F, or colder across Central and Northwestern parts of the country. Still watching to see if a pattern change down the road will unlock some of this brutal cold and bring it south into the US over the next several weeks.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Cooler Behind A Cold Front Today.

2012-01-17T07:58:00.002-07:00

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Blog updated at 3:10 PM MST.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

On This Date In 1996-

Quote- "On this day in 1996, a wind event for the history books occurred with a peak wind gust of 128 mph at Guadalupe Pass. The sustained wind was hurricane force from about 1000 am until about 300 pm with a maximum sustained wind of 105 mph. Although the Pass is famous for wind events elderly ranchers in the area said they had never seen the wind blow so hard.

The highest winds and most damage occurred in the mountainous zones, however strong to damaging winds occurred over most of the warning area. One fatality resulted as a 56 year old South Carolina man was killed when he drove his car into a parked trailer truck which had just been involved in an accident. The Department of Public Safety report stated that visibilities were ranging between 20 feet and 1/4 mile with a visibility of 50 feet being common during the clean up of the accident."

Peak Wind Gusts Reported Yesterday.

Bowl Raws - North of Guadalupe Peak 70 mph

Guadalupe Pass 66 mph

Pinery Raws - Pine Springs 66 mph

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 55 mph

Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 53 mph

Clovis Municipal Airport 52 mph

2 SW Tatum 52 mph

Dunken Raws 52 mph

Carlsbad Airport 51 mph

McKittrick Canyon Raws 51 mph

Sacramento Peak 49 mph

Caprock Raws 49 mph

Queen Raws 48 mph

Artesia Airport 48 mph

Hobbs Airport 47 mph

Roswell Airport 45 mph

Peak Wind Data Is Courtesy Of-

MesoWest Weather.

NCAR Surface Observations.

Today Into The Weekend Across SE NM.

A cold front will move into the area this morning. Under sunny skies, current NWS forecasts have our afternoon high temps ranging from 54 in Tatum, 58 in Hobbs, 61 in Roswell, 66 in Artesia, to 68 in Carlsbad. If the front is a little faster in arriving than current thinking, then we may not be quite this warm.

A quick warm-up will commence starting tomorrow which will last into the weekend. Forecast high temperatures tomorrow range from the upper 60's to near 70. Highs on Thursday range from the low 70's to the upper 70's. By Friday most of us will see the mid-upper 70's, with a few spots flirting with the 80-degree mark. Windy weather may return to the area Friday as a fast moving disturbance zips by to our north across southern Colorado. Warm weather will prevail into the weekend as well, with our high temperatures expected to be in the 70's to near 80.

A Pattern Change Next Week.

Yet Another Major Winter Storm For NM?

ECMWF 00Z/5 PM MST Forecast.

Valid At 5 MST Mon Jan 23, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European computer forecast model, continues to forecast yet another strong closed mid-upper level low over the Desert Southwest by the first of next week. By sunset Monday, it is forecasting this next potential Major Winter Storm to be located over southeastern Arizona.

This ought to sound familiar, the two previous storms that took this track each hammered southeastern New Mexico with a foot of snow. The first one was the Christmas Eve storm that dumped 12" -14" of snow on Carlsbad, and 9" - 11" over most of the rest of the local area. The last storm was the January 9th Winter Storm that dumped 12" - 15" of snow on the Hobbs and Nadine areas.

GFS & ECMWF 500 MB Forecast Comparisons.

Valid At 5 PM MST Mon Jan 23, 2012.

As has been pretty much the case all winter long, the GFS and ECMWF models have different forecast solutions for this next potential Winter Storm to impact the area by the first of next week. The ECMWF slows the storm down, and forms a strong closed mid-upper level low over Arizona.

Meanwhile, the GFS model keeps the storm as an open trough of low pressure sweeping across the Texas Panhandle by Monday. So we will have to wait a few more days until the models settle down and see which scenario wins out. We may either have yet another Winter Storm to deal with by the first of next week, or a windstorm here in SE NM.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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First High Wind Event Of The New Year.

2012-01-16T07:22:00.007-07:00

Mobile App Link For My Daily Blogs.

Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MST Today.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Warm & Windy Today.

Surface Map Forecast At 11 AM MST Today.

High Wind Warning!

Guadalupe Mtn's

Valid Until 11 PM MST Tonight.

SW Winds Increasing To 40-50G70 MPH.

High Wind Warning Today!

Lincoln & Otero Counties.

Valid Until 5 AM MST Tuesday.

West Winds Increasing To 35-45G60 MPH.

Wind Advisory!

Eddy-Lea-Chaves Counties.

Valid Until 8 PM MST Tonight.

SW Winds Increasing To 25-35G50 MPH.

Strong winds aloft, a passing upper-level disturbance to our north, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will generate strong gusty winds across the area today. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to around 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph across the plains by about mid-day. Stronger winds are forecast across the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains, where gusts may reach or exceed 60 mph.

Today will be unseasonably warm with afternoon high temperatures in the low-mid 70's expected across most of the local area. I few spots may climb up into the upper 70's. Patchy areas of blowing dust will be possible in the stronger gusts. This will be especially true over and near freshly plowed or exposed farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites.

A cold front will move into the area tomorrow. This will cool our afternoon highs back down into the 60's tomorrow and Wednesday. But by Thursday we will warm back up to the low-mid 70's. Friday will likely see high temperatures in the 75-80 degree range, and Saturday most of us may reach at least the low 80's.

Does Winter Make A Comeback Next Week?

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM Tue Jan 24, 2012.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Mon Jan 23, 2012.

Update at 1:45 PM MST Today-

This mornings 12Z run of the European model (ECMWF) develops a strong closed 500 millibar low over southeastern New Mexico by around next Tuesday, January 24th. Wow, should this forecast pan out, this would be the fourth strong Winter Storm this season to hit the local area. You can see this via the top map depicted above.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Most of the long-range models to some extent forecast a change in the mid-upper level pattern next week. It looks similar to the pattern we experienced in December into the first of this month. The European model (ECMWF) forecasts a cutoff upper-level to form over the southwestern part of the state by around next Monday, and then drops it south into northern Mexico by mid-week. This is a long ways off, and I expect to see the models offer different forecasts between now and next weekend, so we will have to take a wait and see attitude for now.

Brutal Cold Across The Yukon Territories

In Northwestern Canada.

Surface Temperatures At 6 AM MST This Morning.

GFS Surface Temperature Anomalie Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM Tue Jan 17, 2012.

GFS Surface Temp Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

A couple of the colder temperatures that I could find across the Yukon Territories in Northwestern Canada at 6 AM MST this morning include, -54F at Mayo, -51F at Dawson, and -49F at Watson Lake. By tomorrow evening at sunset temperature departures from normal across Northwestern Canada are forecast by the GFS to be some 60-73 degrees below normal. Temperatures of -40F to -60F are forecast for this region.

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Warm Today - Warm & Windy Monday.

2012-01-15T09:14:00.002-07:00

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Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Today's Weather - Warm.

Most of you are going to love today's sunny warm weather. Our afternoon highs are forecast to range from near 70 in the Roswell area, to the low 70's in the Hobbs area, to the low-mid 70's in the Artesia-Carlsbad areas. Mid and high level clouds will filter in later this afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly breezes will pick this afternoon at around 10-20 mph.

Monday - Warm & Windy.

Blog updated at 3:25 PM MST Today-

High Wind Warning.

Guadalupe Mtn's Of SE NM & W TX..

In Effect Until 5 PM MST Monday.

SW Winds Increasing To 30-40G60 MPH.

Wind Advisory Monday!
Eddy-Lea-Chaves-Lincoln-Otero Co's
SW Winds Increasing To 25-35G45-55 MPH.

A shortwave trough of low pressure will swing across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado on Monday. This feature will cause the surface pressure gradient to tighten up, and will make for a windy day across SE NM and W TX.

Our first high wind event of the new year will unfold across the local area tomorrow. A Wind Advisory may be issued for Eddy County for tomorrow by the Midland National Weather Service Office. Southwesterly winds will increase across the area tomorrow, and by mid-day should be sustained at around 25-30G40 mph. A few higher gusts will be possible in a few locations, especially over and near the foothills and mountains.

Mid and high level clouds are forecast to increase across the area later this afternoon and into tonight, but these will clear out by tomorrow morning. A few areas of patchy blowing dust may occur in the stronger wind gusts tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 60's to near 70 in the Roswell and Hobbs areas, to the low-mid 70's across the Artesia and Carlsbad areas. A few spots may be a little warmer and may reach the upper 70's.

Cold Front Arrives Tuesday Morning.

Surface Map Forecast At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

A cold front will work its way southward down the eastern plains of New Mexico Monday night, and will arrive in southeastern New Mexico early Tuesday morning. A cooler airmass will overspread the area on Tuesday with afternoon highs mostly in the 50's.

This cool down will not last long however. By Wednesday we will be back up in the 60's, and by Thursday and Friday most of southeastern New Mexico will see the low-mid 70's return. Interestingly enough our National Weather Service forecast high temps for next Saturday are near 80. A few of us may even see the low-mid 80's. It is still January right?

Brutal - Possibly Historic Cold Across NW Canada.

GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Mon Jan 16, 2012.

GFS Surface Temp Anomalies Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Jan 18, 2012.

GFS Surface Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

Look at the forecast temperatures on the GFS 500 millibar, or 18,000' Mean Sea Level map above. Temperatures at this level are forecast to be as low as -48C/-54F over central Canada. That's very cold for a mid-level storm.

Surface temperature departures of 60-70 degrees below normal are still being forecast by the GFS model across northwestern Canada for the first of this upcoming week. Actual surface temperatures of -50F to -60F are being forecast by this model. I can't wait to see just how low these temperatures actually go this week.

Long-Range Change Coming - Back To Winter?

Last Nights European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 22, 2012.

In the world of weather nothing lasts forever. The atmosphere is a fluid, and is constantly changing. What goes up, will in time, come back down. Mother nature and old man winter have taken a break recently, keeping the jet stream and storm track well north of SE New Mexico. This will last perhaps until late next weekend, or the first of the following week.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) forecast model (depicted above), has a trough of low pressure diving southward into central Arizona by late next weekend. Sound familiar? It should...this has been the storm track that has hammered our local area with multiple winter storms since the first of December. This may be out next potential weather maker.

Remember, I have been saying recently that as long as the jet stream does not buckle, and send another one of the strong upper-level disturbances southward into the Desert Southwest, we would remain free from these cold arctic intrusions from Canada. If this model forecast is correct, this all may be about to change, and we may see a return to colder and stormier weather in about a week or so.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Beautiful Weekend - Windy Monday.

2012-01-14T08:39:00.004-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Mobile App Link For My Blogs.

Beautiful Weekend - Mild.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

A beautiful mid-January weekend is on tap for southeast New Mexico today and tomorrow. Sunny skies and light winds will dominate our weather today with afternoon highs ranging from near 60 in the Roswell and Artesia areas, to the low-mid 60's elsewhere.

Mid and high level clouds will increase tomorrow as a fast moving upper-level disturbance approaches the area to our northwest. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60's to near 70. A few of the normally warmer spots will likely get up into the low 70's.

Windy Monday!

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

NAM-WRF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid 5 PM MST Mon Jan 16, 2012.

High Wind Watch!
Late Sunday Night - Monday Afternoon.
Guadalupe Mtn's SE NM & W TX.
SW Winds Increasing To 35-50G65 MPH.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Albuquerque.
Higher Mountain Snows Western & Northern NM.
Windy Eastern Plains Monday.

Our first high wind event of 2012 looks like it will unfold Monday afternoon across southeastern New Mexico and parts of nearby West Texas. A fast moving short wave trough of low pressure (depicted on the map above), will zip by to our north across Colorado on Monday. This will increase the mid-upper level winds across the area.

Cold Front Arrives Monday Night.

Surface Map Forecast At 5 AM MST Mon Jan 19, 2012.

A surface low pressure will deepen over southeastern Colorado, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Monday. A lee trough of low pressure will stretch southward out of this low and into southeastern New Mexico. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up during the day, as stronger mid and upper winds aloft move into the area.

This will make for a windy day with southwesterly winds at around 20 - 30 mph with gusts likely in the 40 mph range. A few spots may see higher gusts, especially over and near the foothills and mountains. A High Wind event is anticipated for the Guadalupe Mountains with southwesterly winds gusts of around 60 mph.

Cooler weather will overspread the area Tuesday with daytime highs mostly in the 50's. This won't last as we are forecast to warm back up into the mid-upper 60's by Thursday, and the mid-upper 70's by next Friday. A wouldn't be surprised to see some of us reach the 80-degree mark.

Brutal - Possibly Historic Cold NW Canada.

Map Is Courtesy Of AccuWeather.

Map Is Courtesy Of Policlimate.

Valid 11 PM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

GFS Surface Temp Fcst At 11 PM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

Brutal, possibly historic cold (see Dr. Ryan Maue's twitter comments) will grip northwestern Canada this week. Temperature anomalies across this area (see the map above) are forecast to be some 70-degrees below normal. That's just incredible! Actual temperatures are forecast to dive as low as -60F. It will be interesting to see just how low some of these temperatures go.

Once again as long as the jet stream does not buckle, and send a trough of low pressure south into the Great Basin or Desert Southwest, we will not see these brutally cold airmasses come south into our area. We have undergone a jet stream pattern change..gone at least for now, are the southward dips of the jet stream into the Desert Southwest. Long-range models continue to basically hold a zonal flow aloft pattern (the jet stream moving more or less west to east across the country) throughout the next week or so.

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Windy Monday - Colder Tuesday.

2012-01-13T06:47:00.003-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Sunny Skies - Warmer For The Weekend.

We start a slow warm-up today which will continue into Monday. Mid and high level clouds will clear out of the area by this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will prevail until late in the weekend when mid and high level clouds will return to the area. Our high temperatures will generally be in the 50's across the southeastern plains today. Saturday will see highs in the upper 50's to the low 60's for the most part. A few spots may be a little warmer. Sunday will see highs in the mid 60's to near 70.

Monday Will Be Warm & Windy.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 11 AM MST Mon Jan 16, 2012.

NWS HPC High Temp Forecast For Mon Jan 16, 2012.

Cold Front Arrives By Tuesday.

Surface Forecast Map Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

An upper-level disturbance will zip by to our north on Monday. This will cause the surface pressure gradient to tighten up as a cold front approaches the area. Monday will be warm and at least breezy, if not windy, especially across the Guadalupe Mountains.

Bitterly Cold Airmass In Northwest Canada.

GFS Surface Temp Anomalies Map.

Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

GFS Surface Temp Forecast Map.

Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

An incredibly cold airmass continues to build across Northwestern Canada. By Tuesday morning the GFS forecast model (see maps above) is forecasting temperatures as low as -50F to -60F across this area. This is some 70-degrees below normal! As long as the flow aloft remains zonal, and the jet stream does not buckle, this airmass will not take a plunge southward towards our local area. I don't see any indications in the models at this time that this will happen.

The coldest temperatures should stay confined to the northern states next week. I am a little leery of this though. Anytime you get an airmass this cold, it tends to want to break the rules and not follow the model forecasts. Given the fact that the models haven't performed all that well this winter, I wouldn't be shocked to see a part of this bitterly cold airmass break off, and plunge south into the heart of the country. It bears watching.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Colder Today...Warmer Going Into The Weekend.

2012-01-12T07:11:00.001-07:00

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Update at 8:55 AM MST-

Low clouds are developing across the Pecos Valley this morning. If they do not burn off later today, we may not be as warm as forecast. My SE NM Radar is showing some very light snow showers near the Van Horn, Marfa, Alpine, and Fort Stockton areas.

A cold front slipped south of the area overnight and in its wake much colder temperatures are expected across the area today. At sunrise this morning local temperatures are cold. A sample of some of the readings at 6:30 AM MST include-

Crossroads 12

Clovis Municipal Airport 12

Cloudcroft DW7382 12

Willow Wells 16

Cannon AFB 16

Mayhill CW9878 16

Mescal Raws - Mescalero 16

Smokey Bear Raws - Ruidoso 17

Timberon CW7724 18

Queen Raws 22

NW Hobbs - KM5BS 22

Dunken Raws 24

Caprock Raws 24

Roswell Airport 28

Artesia Airport 28

Carlsbad Airport 30

Today's highs are forecast to range from the low-mid 40's. High clouds will drift across the area from time to time. A warming trend is forecast to commence tomorrow with highs mostly in the 50's. By Saturday and Sunday we will start to see highs in the upper 50's to low-mid 60's, with a few spots perhaps a little warmer. Overall a rather tranquil weather pattern is expected to hold across the area into the weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Turning Colder This Afternoon - Windy.

2012-01-11T07:53:00.003-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Update at 1:00 PM MST Wed Jan 11, 2012-

Cold Front Moves South Today.

Surface Map Forecast At 11 AM MST Today.

GFS 500 MB Forecast Map At 5 AM MST Mon Jan 16, 2012.

NAM-WRF 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Today.

Most of southeastern New Mexico warmed up yesterday afternoon. High temperatures ranged from 64 at the Roswell Airport, to 62 here at my home in Carlsbad, 60 at the Carlsbad Airport, and 59 at the Artesia Airport. Hobbs had one of the coldest readings in the area with an afternoon high at the Airport of only 45 due to the snow cover. Even Cloudcroft managed to get up to 46, and the Smokey Bear Raws in Ruidoso was 53.

A cold front will get kicked southward into southeastern New Mexico today as an upper-level disturbance passes by to our north. This disturbance is depicted above by the NAM-WRF 500 millibar/18,000' MSL forecast map. Our latest winter storm to hammer the area will be located over the southeastern US by sunset and continues to weaken as it moves east.

Gusty northwesterly to northerly winds at around 20 - 30 mph will accompany the frontal passage this afternoon. Our afternoon high temperatures today will range from around 55 - 60. Colder air will overspread the area tonight into tomorrow. Most of southeastern New Mexico will dip down to near 20 for lows by sunrise tomorrow morning. Our afternoon highs are forecast to only be in the upper 30's to the mid 40's tomorrow.

Flow Aloft Goes Zonal Next Week.

Rather tranquil weather will prevail as we end the work week and head into the weekend.

Our afternoon high temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 40's to the mid 50's.

Saturday will see readings mostly in the mid-upper 50's, a few spots may get above 60. Sunday will be even warmer with highs in the low-upper 60's. Its possible that a few spots may flirt with the 70-degree reading by Sunday afternoon. A weak upper-level disturbance will zip across the state Monday but will produce little in the way of serious weather.

Map Is Courtesy Of AccuWeather.

GFS/ECMWF 500 MB Mean Flow Next Week.

Long-range models indicate that a pattern change will develop later this week into next weekend. For the first time in six weeks, no significant winter storms are being forecast by the models to impact the state for the next week to ten days. Current medium and long-range model forecasts indicate that a rather flat zonal flow aloft will develop over most of the US.

This will keep the storm track well north of New Mexico, and allow for warm and tranquil weather to dominate later this week into next week. After weeks of below normal temperatures and multiple snow storms, we will see a period of above normal temperatures and quiet weather for awhile.

Long Awaited Pattern Change?

GFS Surface Temp Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

As long as the zonal flow aloft pattern holds, then we will not see the jet stream buckle, sending the storm track diving southward into the Desert Southwest like we have been experiencing over the past six weeks.

There has been a a lot of discussion since mid-December concerning this change in the upper-level pattern. Some forecasters and meteorologists think that a blocking pattern will develop, which would shift the Polar Vortex over northern Canada southward, thus allowing several surges of bitterly cold arctic air to come southward into the US. Others believe that is not going to happen. The jury is still out on this one.

Take a look at the surface map forecast above for next Tuesday. A massive dome of arctic air is forecast to cover much of the northern US border states with Canada. Temperatures across northwestern Canada are forecast to dive as low as -30F to -55F. As long as the flow aloft over North America stays more or less zonal, then this bitterly cold arctic airmass will remain locked up over Canada. If the jet stream buckles next week, then look out, because this slug of very cold arctic air will come south.

Maybe The GFS Is Picking Up On This?

GFS Surface Temperature Anomalies Forecast.

Valid At 11 PM MST Thu Jan 19, 2012.

GFS Surface Temperature Anomalies Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Jan 19, 2012.

This Mornings GFS 850 MB Temp Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Jan 19, 2012.

This Mornings GFS 850 MB Temp Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Jan 19, 2012.

I am a little skeptical of the model forecasts in the long-range. Its been a rather unusual winter, and I am not so sure that we are done with winter here in New Mexico just yet. I don't think that the models have a very good handle on the long-range outlooks, so don't be surprised to see some changes in the forecasts next week.

Take a look at the maps above. If this is anywhere close to being correct...then somebody is going to have to deal with some incredibly cold weather, somewhere downstream of those temperature anomalies of -70F below normal over northwestern Canada in about a week.

Update-

I added this mornings, GFS 12Z/5 AM MST temperature anomalie map, the 850 millibar temperature forecast map, and the surface temperature forecast map valid at 5 AM MST on Thursday, January 19, 2012. This mornings run of the GFS has temperatures across northwestern Canada tanking into the -50F to -60F range around the 19th.

I realize this is a long ways off, and the models have performed poorly so far this winter....but that's an incredibly large mass of very cold air. It stretches all the way across Canada from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. I think wed better watch this one and pray that the jet stream dose not buckle.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Snowfall Totals Across SE NM & W TX.

2012-01-09T16:39:00.011-07:00

Blog updated at 2:10 PM MST Tue Jan 10, 2012.

Click On The Maps/Photos To Enlarge Them.

These Two Photos Are Courtesy Of Lea County Skywarn

Coordinator Jim Morrison (KM5BS) In Hobbs, New Mexico.

He was measuring 11" Of Snow At 3:24 PM. It Was Snowing

Hard At The Time With The Visibility Down To 50-100 Yards.

Photos Are Courtesy Of Corey Cruce Of Hobbs, New Mexico.

Photo Is Courtesy Of Pat Wright In Queen, New Mexico.
She Measured 4" Of Snowfall From This Storm.

National Snow Depth Map This Morning.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Visible Satellite Image At 8:55 AM MST Tue Jan 10, 2012.

Snow Cover Across SE NM & W TX Tue Jan 10, 2012.

Clouds Are Covering Central Texas.

(Zoomed In To 1,000 Miles)

Same Photo Zoomed In To 250 Miles.
MODIS Image Of The Day.

So far, this latest potent Winter Storm to hammer the local area has behaved as was pretty much expected this morning. As I had mentioned in this mornings blog, somebody in SE NM and W TX would get clobbered it was just a matter of who...and the who was Hobbs, Seminole, Andrews, and the Midland/Odessa areas.

I measured a total of 0.9" of snowfall here at my home in Carlsbad today. My maximum snow depth on the ground was at 8 AM this morning with just a dusting (1/4") on the grass. Sadly our snow melted as it fell, and at times was mixed in with light rain. My liquid precipitation has amounted to .15" so far today.

So much for this storm...it will be history soon. I'm already taking a long look at the models which are indicating the potential for yet another significant Winter Storm for the state by this upcoming weekend. One thing for sure, this is going to be a winter to remember here in SE NM.

Snowfall Totals As Of 10:44 AM MST-
(Tue Jan 10, 2012)

Nadine - South of Hobbs15.0"
Hobbs 12" at 5:48 PM (Spotter Report)
Hobbs 11.3" (KM5BS)

Midland NWS Office 10.6"
Andrews 10.0"
Seminole 9.0"
West Odessa 9"
Greenwood 8.6"
Kermit 8.0"

Euince/Jal 6.0"

Cloudcroft 5.3"
Queen 4.0" (CoCoRaHS Observer)
5 Miles NE of Cloudcroft 3.7"
2 Miles South of Cloudcroft 3.5"
Sierra Blanca Snotel 3.0"
Ski Apache 2.0"
Artesia 1.5" (Public Report At 10 AM).
4 Miles E of Elk 1.0"
1 Mile South of Capitan 1.0"
20 Miles SW of Carlsbad 1.0" (Co-Op Observer)

1 Mile NE of Lakewood 1.0"

(Max Snow Depth 1" At 9 AM MST Mon)

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 0.9"
(Max Snow Depth 1/4" 8 AM)

Snow Reports Are Courtesy Of-

CoCoRaHS

The General Public
SE NM Skywarn Spotters
The El Paso NWS Office.

The Midland NWS Office

The Albuquerque NWS Office

This list will be updated later this morning when the Midland NWS Office publishes their summary of the storm.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Heavy Wet Snow Today!

2012-01-09T06:59:00.003-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

These Maps Do Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Quote NWS Midland..."Powerful Winter Storm to Impact West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico... For road conditions in Texas, please call 1 (800) 452-9292. For New Mexico road conditions, please call 1 (800) 432-4269. Heavy snow will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and spread across the Permian Basin of west Texas today. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through this evening for much of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. National Weather Service personnel are working around the clock to monitor this developing winter storm. Additional statements will be issued Sunday night into Monday as conditions warrant. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local television or radio stations, or your satellite or cable television provider for the latest information regarding this unfolding winter weather event. You can also get the latest in weather information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week on the internet at www.weather.gov/midland.

Significant snowfall will develop across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico today and this evening. The snow will end from west to east tonight. Total snowfall accumulations of four to eight inches are likely over the northern two thirds of the Permian Basin with three to six inches of snow likely today over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the Trans Pecos region. Over the Big Bend of west Texas, snow accumulations of one to three inches are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this area until 6 pm CST this evening.

Heavy wet snowfall may accumulate on power lines and limbs of nearby trees, possibly causing scattered power outages. Additionally, snow loading on large roofs, such as can be found on warehouses and large retail stores, could result in structural failure."

Winter Storm Warning.

Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's

(Parts Of West Texas Also.)

Continues In Effect Until 11 PM MST Tonight.

Widespread Moderate To Heavy Snowfall.

Widespread 3" - 6" Eddy County.

Widespread 4" - 8" Lea & Culberson Co's.

Localized 10+" Possible, Especially Near Mtn's.

Isolated Snowfall Rates 2" An Hour Possible-

In Convective Snow Bands/Thunder Snow.

NE Winds 20 MPH With Higher Gusts.

Combination Of Drought Weakened Trees-

Heavy Snow Loading On Trees Limbs-

Broken Tree Limbs From Snow Loading-

May Cause Scattered Power Outages.

Low Visibilities Due To Heavy Snowfall.

Dangerous To Impossible Driving Conditions.

Road Closures Possible.

Winter Weather Advisory.

Chaves Co.

Valid Through 6 PM MST.

Generally 1" - 2" Snowfall Southeast Chaves Co.

Winter Storm Warning.

Otero Co.

Remains In Effect Until 11 AM MST This Morning.

Generally 4" - 8" Snowfall Totals.

Locally Heavier Totals Higher Slopes.

NE Winds 10 - 20 MPH.

Low Visibilities Due To Heavy Snowfall.

Localized Blowing/Drifting Snow Possible.

Dangerous To Impossible Driving Conditions.

Road Closures Possible.

New Mexico Road Conditions.

(1- 800- 432- 4269)

Texas Road Conditions.

(1 - 800 - 452 - 9292)

Slow Moving Powerful Winter Storm!

09Z/2 AM MST RUC 500 MB Analysis.

Early this morning the center of the powerful closed upper-level low was located just south of the New Mexico Bootheel in Northern Mexico. This potent Winter Storm is forecast to crawl slowly eastward today and tonight. Currently it is forecast to be located south of Midland, TX by around sunset today.

It should be noted that any subtle shift in the storms track will have huge impacts upon our local weather today, and tonight here in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. If this storm shifts a little further to the south than the models are currently forecasting, then we will see less snowfall than is being forecast here in Eddy and Lea Counties. A further shift to the south with the storm track would shift the heaviest snowfall south and east of us.

If this storm wobbles just a tad further north than is currently being forecast, then Eddy and Lea Counties, and perhaps southern Chaves County, would see heavier snowfall totals than is being forecast for today. These types of storms are very tricky to forecast. A shift in the track of the storm to the north or south, with as little as 25-100 miles, can make all the difference in the world in who gets hammered with heavy snowfall and who does not.

Current thinking from the National Weather Service Forecasters is that widespread snowfall totals of 3" - 6" will occur across Eddy County. Widespread snowfall totals of 4" - 8" will be possible across Lea County. Some parts of the local area may see lesser amounts, generally in the 3" - 6" range. Some areas, especially near the mountains may see more.

Locally 10+" may easily fall in a few spots, especially with any thunder snow that develops, and across the Guadalupe Mountains. Interestingly enough some of the models are forecasting storm total snowfall amounts of 10" - 15" across parts of the area. Snowfall rates of 2" an hour or greater will be possible today with the convective snow bands and any thunderstorm that develops.

Midland NWS Doppler Radar Snapshots

At 6:22 AM MST.

This snapshot shows heavy rain falling to the southwest of

the Midland/Odessa area, near Monahans at 6:22 AM MST.

This appears to be one of those convective bands forming.

Same Image As Above But In The "Winterize Mode".

Bands Of Snow Are Increasing In Coverage Across

SE NM While Moving Westward.

Click On The "My SE NM Radar Link At The Top Of

My Web Page, And Be Sure To Check The "Winterize"

Button To View Local Radars In The Winter Mode.

It appears that parts of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas are going to get dumped on by this storm. The problem today will be in trying to figure out just exactly where the upper-level storm tracks, and where those convective snow bands set up. I think that this is going to be one of those storms that either misses most of southeastern New Mexico, and hammers West Texas, or surprises a lot of people in here in southeastern New Mexico.

Heavy wet snow is forecast and this may cause some travel problems over the area, so please be aware of this if you have travel plans across SE NM or W TX today into tomorrow morning.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Once Again Heavy Snow Possible For SE NM.

2012-01-08T09:02:00.005-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 5:43 PM MST today.

These Maps Do Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

These Maps Do Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

These Maps Do Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

These Maps Do Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Our Third Major Winter Storm Of The Winter

Arrives Tonight - Lasts Into Tuesday.

Latest NM Snowfall Totals.

New Mexico Road Conditions.

(1- 800- 432- 4269)

Texas Road Conditions.

(1 - 800 - 452 - 9292)

High Impact Winter Storm!

Winter Storm Warning.

Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's

(Parts Of West Texas Also.)

Valid 5 PM MST Today - 5 PM MST Monday.

Widespread Moderate To Heavy Snowfall.

Widespread 3" - 7" SE NM & W TX.

Localized 4" - 8" With 10+" Possible.

Isolated Snowfall Rates 2" An Hour Possible-

In Convective Snow Bands/Thunder Snow.

NE Winds 20 MPH With Higher Gusts.

Combination Of Drought Weakened Trees-

Heavy Snow Loading On Trees Limbs-

Broken Tree Limbs From Snow Loading-

May Cause Scattered Power Outages.

Low Visibilities Due To Heavy Snowfall.

Dangerous To Impossible Driving Conditions.

Road Closures Possible.

Winter Storm Warning.

Chaves - Lincoln Co's.

Valid 6 PM MST Today - 6 PM MST Monday.

Generally 3" - 6" Snowfall Totals Lower Elevations.

5" - 9" Above 7,500' Sacramento Mtn's.

2" - 6" Below 7,500' Sacramneto Mtn's.

Locally 12+" Possible Higher Slopes.

Heavier Totals Possible Near Mtn's.

Low Visibilities Due To Heavy Snowfall.

Dangerous To Impossible Driving Conditions.

Road Closures Possible.

Winter Storm Warning.

Otero Co.

Valid 5 PM MST This Afternoon - 11 AM MST Monday.

Generally 4" - 8" Snowfall Totals.

Locally Heavier Totals Higher Slopes.

NE Winds 15-25G35 MPH.

Low Visibilities Due To Heavy Snowfall.

Localized Blowing/Drifting Snow Possible.

Dangerous To Impossible Driving Conditions.

Road Closures Possible.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST This Morning.

Early this morning out next approaching Major Winter Storm was located over Central Arizona. This mornings 12Z/5 AM MST run of the NAM-WRF forecast model has the upper-level storm closing off just a tad west of the New Mexico Bootheel by sunset today. It is then forecast to be located just south of El Paso by sunrise tomorrow morning, and then by sunset tomorrow afternoon, it is forecast to be located just to the south of Carlsbad over West Texas.

This is another cold upper-level storm with a cold pool of around -27C/-17F at the storms center, therefore it will have lots of available energy and lift to work with. Forecast liquid storm total amounts of around .50" to 1.00" of equivalent precipitation, indicate that this storm may produce a lot of widespread moderate to heavy snowfall across SE NM and parts of West Texas.

Widespread snowfall totals of 5" - 7" are currently being forecast for our area, with localized snowfall totals exceeding 10" in some places. Convective snow bands along with the possibility of thunder snow may produce snowfall rates of 2" - 4" per hour in a few spots.

Due to drought weakened tree limbs, gusty northeasterly winds, and heavy snow loading on the weakened tree limbs, scattered power outages will be a possibility across some parts of SE NM, and West Texas late tonight into tomorrow night.

Dangerous to impossible driving conditions are expected to develop across the area later tonight and will prevail into Tuesday morning. Some road closures will be possible in the area due to low visibilities, heavy snow, and localized blowing and drifting snow, especially over and near the mountains.

Model forecasts indicate the possibility of yet another closed upper-level low moving south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday, along with the potential for more snow across the area. A third and stronger upper-level storm may impact the state and local area next weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

More Snow Headed To SE New Mexico!

2012-01-07T06:08:00.005-07:00

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Blog updated at 3:00 PM MST Today.

This Map Does Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

This Map Does Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

This Map Does Not Update On This Blog-

Click On The Link Below For The Latest Information.

Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST NAM-WRF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Mon Jan 9, 2012.

Surface Map Forecast At 5 AM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Winter Storm Watch.

Late Sunday Night - Monday Afternoon.
Eddy-Lea-Culberson Co's.

3" - 7" Snowfall Guadalupe Mtns.

3" - 6" Snowfall Lower Elevations SE NM & W TX.

Locally Heavier Totals Possible...Especially Mtn's.
Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.

N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Low Visibilities.

Winter Storm Watch.

Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon.

Chaves-Roosevelt-Curry-De Baca Co's.

3" - 6" Snowfall - Locally Heavier Totals Possible.

Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.

N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Low Visibilities.

Winter Storm Warning.

6 AM Sunday Morning - 6 AM Monday Morning.

Lincoln-SW Chaves Co's.

6" - 9" Snowfall Above 7,500'.

Locally 12" Possible Higher Slopes.

3"- 6" Below 7,500'.

Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.

N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Low Visibilities.

Winter Storm Warning.

11 AM Sunday Morning - 1 PM Monday Afternoon.
Southern Sacramento Mtn's.
4" - 8" Snowfall.
Locally Heavier Totals Higher Slopes Possible.
NE Winds 10-20G35 mph.
Localized Blowing & Drifting Snow.

Difficult To Impossible Driving Conditions.

N - NE Winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Low Visibilities.

Yet Another Major Winter Storm For NM!

Update At 3:00 PM MST Today-

Current model trends indicate that yet another strong closed upper-level low will be located over southwestern New Mexico by sunset Sunday. This cold and very strong upper-level storm will then drift southeastward towards the local area Monday into Tuesday. The models may still be underestimating the strength of the storm.

Rain should break out across SE NM by around sunset Sunday, but will quickly change over to all snow. Snow will fall earlier in the day across the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mtn's. There is the real possibility that we may yet again be dealing with another Major Winter Storm across much of New Mexico, including southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas.

Much as our Christmas storm wrecked havoc with local driving conditions...this next incoming Major Winter Storm has the potential to do the same across many areas of the state, as well as the local area. Heavy snowfall is now forecast for all of our area from Sunday night into Tuesday morning.

Convective bands of snow showers (thunder snow) will also be possible...and these may produce localized very heavy snowfall totals in a few places. Road closures will be possible in many areas of New Mexico, including southeastern New Mexico, Sunday into Tuesday.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter Storm #3 is getting ready to take aim on SE NM Sunday night into Tuesday. This will be Winter Storm #6 for the rest of New Mexico. After suffering through one of the most brutal summers on record, the snow and rain are very much welcome. However, once again this next Major Winter Storm is forecast to cause travel headaches across the state. For the very latest road conditions across New Mexico please visit this site. New Mexico Roads.

A strong upper-level short wave trough of low pressure is forecast to drop southward into the Four-Corners Region today. It will then settle southward into southwestern New Mexico, or southeastern Arizona tonight, and then crawl slowly eastward across southern New Mexico, or Northern Mexico Monday into Tuesday. There are still some some differences in the exact forecast track of this storm in the models, so just where the heaviest snowfall will occur, and when, is still somewhat questionable early this morning.

Southeastern New Mexico is getting ready to get hit once again with another snow storm. There is the potential for locally heavy snowfall in some areas, with the current storm total snowfall amounts in the 2" - 6" range.

A re-enforcing surge of colder air Sunday night will inject low-level upslope moisture from the east, into the upper-level storm to our west. This will set the stage for locally heavy snowfall totals across the area, especially across the mountains. Our high temps on Monday are forecast to remain in the 30's.

Yet another Winter Storm may take aim on the state by the middle to end of next week. I will post additional information on this storm later today as conditions warrant.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Winter Storm #6 On Its Way To NM!

2012-01-06T11:26:00.003-07:00

Weak Cold Front Headed South Today.

Blog updated at 10:20 PM MST.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Today will be a little warmer than yesterday with our afternoon highs expected to be mostly in the mid 60's, to near 70 across the southeastern plains of New Mexico. A weak cold front will move south through the local area by tonight...bringing slightly cooler temps for the weekend. Our high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday should range from about 55 - 60 degrees. A few spots may be a couple of degrees warmer. Sunny skies will prevail today into Sunday.

Winter Storm #6 Takes Aim On NM Late This Weekend.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Forecast.

We have been out of sync with most of the rest of the nation so far this winter. Six winter storms in about six weeks have hammered New Mexico. So far this winter I have measured 16.6" of snowfall here at my home in Carlsbad, New Mexico. That's just about double our seasonal average for the winter. Many parts of the nation are wondering whether or not winter will even arrive this year. It will, and with a vengeance in some area from about next week into at least the first week of February.

A Tale Of Four Models.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM-WRF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST CMC Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sun Jan 8, 2012.

Special Weather Statement From NWS Midland.

(2+" Of Snowfall Possible SE NM By Monday Morning.)

Special Weather Statement From NWS Albuquerque.

Posted above, are four different computer model forecasts for our next inbound Winter Storm that is due to affect New Mexico, and the local area from Sunday night into Tuesday. Its normal for the computer forecast models to disagree with each others forecast solutions. Some winters are worse than others...and this winter has been terrible at times, concerning the flip flopping and the inconsistency of the models. This is due in a large part to the split flow pattern in the jet stream.

The top map (above) is last nights European run, and it decided to open up the closed low that it had been forecasting for the past several days, and move it a little further to the east by sunset Sunday. This doesn't make much sense this morning, given the fact that for nearly a week, it has insisted on dropping a strong cold closed upper-level low into SE AZ by sunset Sunday.

The middle map (above) is this mornings run of the NAM-WRF model forecast valid for Sunday at sunset. It depicts a broad closed upper-level low centered over south-central New Mexico by Sunday at sunset.

The third map (above) is this mornings run of the GFS model forecast valid for Sunday at sunset. It is very similar with the NAM-WRF model, but appears to be a little stronger, and a tad further to the south with the center of the closed upper-level low.

Finally the fourth map (above) is this mornings run of the Canadian (CMC) model forecast valid at sunset Sunday. It is forecasting a digging open trough of low pressure, that stretches southwest to northeast across southern Arizona and western New Mexico by sunset Sunday.

The trend so far this winter has been for the models to bring these winter storms too far to the east, too fast, and too weak. I think that this may be the case once again. The Canadian model may be on the right track with this next winter storms forecast of digging it further to the west, slowing its eastward progression down, and developing a colder, stronger and wetter storm than the ECMWF, NAM-WRF, or GFS models are forecasting.

If the Canadian model is to be believed, then there is the potential for this next inbound Winter Storm to slide just to the south of us, and not move into West Texas until around mid-day on Tuesday. It also forecasts the potential for 3" - 6" of snowfall across the lower elevations of the area.

As of this mornings local National Weather Service forecasts (click on the links at the top of this web page), we have a chance for a mixed bag of wintry precipitation across the southeastern plains of New Mexico and nearby areas. This could start as early as Sunday night and possibly last into Tuesday morning. Current forecasts indicate that we will see high temps in the upper 30's across the local area Monday.

Should the upper-level storm dig further to the west, slow down in its eastward ejection across the area, and be colder and stronger much as the Canadian model is forecasting, then our chances for accumulating snowfall would increase. Should the upper-level storm drop further to the east into New Mexico, and be a weaker, warmer, and drier storm than what is being forecast by the Canadian model, then we would have less of a chance for rain and or snowfall across the southeastern plains.

Pattern Change Next Week?

Map Is Courtesy Of AccuWeather.

A change in the jet stream pattern that has dominated this winters weather thus far appears to be in the making. This is due to several factors including " sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)" in the very upper-levels of the atmosphere. Generally this occurs between 10 - 50 millibars.

When this occurs, the upper-level winds at this altitude produce a shift the position of the "Polar Vortex", which basically allows for a "Cross Polar Flow" of bitterly cold arctic air southward into the US. There are other factors involved and I don't have time to get into all of this, so please click on the link above, or this link, if you are interested in what is going to possibly cause this change in the nations weather in the coming weeks. For a more detailed explanation click on this link.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Tranquil Weather Into The Weekend...Storm Next Week.

2012-01-05T11:20:00.001-07:00

Blog updated at 3:25 PM MST-

Seasonable Temps Into The Weekend.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Tranquil weather will continue today into the weekend across southeastern New Mexico. We should see our afternoon high temps climb up into the upper 50's to low 60's today. Tomorrow will be a tad warmer with readings in the mid 60's to near 70.

A weak cold front will slip into the area tomorrow evening. This front will knock our daytime highs back down to the upper 50's to low 60' Saturday. Sunday will see a slight rebound with readings in the mid-upper 60's.

Another Winter Storm Taking Aim On The State.